16 of the best teams in the country head to Chicago this weekend for the ITA Men’s National Team Indoor Championship and I’m going to help break it down round by round. There has been at least one Round of 16 upset each year since 2005 and I don’t see that 10-year trend changing this year. Play gets started on Friday morning so let’s go ahead and dive right in.
Round of 16
[3] Virginia vs. [14] TCU – 9am cst – Virginia comes into this one undefeated (5-0) but hasn’t faced a legitimate top 40 opponent yet while TCU (5-0) has already won at #12 Texas A&M and #40 Tulsa. A year ago Virginia came into the NTI’s in the same situation, without having faced a tough opponent prior to the tournament, and Notre Dame really gave them a match with the Irish taking the doubles point and pushing 4 singles matches to 3 sets before Virginia won it 4-2. I think we may see the same type of tilt on Friday with TCU matching up fairly well with Virginia. 3 Virginia starters (Frank, Altamirano, Ritschard) saw their first action of the season just last month so while we know what Mitchell Frank brings to the table we don’t yet know how Altamirano and Ritschard will react to facing a tough opponent in a dual match setting. The only singles pairing that will have previously faced each other are Altamirano and Stein who met last week in qualies at the Dallas Challenger with Stein taking it 7-6, 6-4. I’d say that Shane and Kwiatkowski are heavy favorites at 2 and 3 and I’ve got to lean towards Frank at 1 which means TCU would have to take the doubles point and sweep the bottom 3. I don’t quite see TCU being able to do that though they may win a few. Prediction: Virginia 4-1
Probable Singles Lineup
Mitchell Frank vs. #18 Cameron Norrie
#4 Ryan Shane vs. #48 Nick Chappell
#1 Thai-Son Kwiatkowski vs. Arnau Dachs
Collin Altamirano vs. Will Stein
Alexander Ritschard vs. #85 Facundo Lugones
JC Aragone vs. #112 Guillermo Nunez
Probable Doubles Lineup
#37 Shane/Corinteli vs. #24 Stein/Chappell
#41 Styslinger/Kwiatkowski vs. Norrie/Nunez
Frank/Altamirano vs. Hudson Blake/Trevor Johnson
[6] Duke vs. [11] Baylor – 9am cst. – Duke (9-0) comes into this one already battle tested with 6 top 30 wins (@ #5 Illinois, #18 Wake Forest, #20 Tennessee, #21 Memphis, @ #26 Northwestern, @ #27 Kentucky) while Baylor (4-1) lost a 4-3 heart-breaker to its only top 25 opponent which was #5 Illinois. Despite Duke having the better record and ranking, I’d actually consider Baylor a favorite in this one because I think they could win the match even if they dropped the doubles point whereas I think Duke has to take the doubles point to win. The matchup at #1 singles should be a good one with both players ranked in the top 10 – I like Lenz in this one because he has more big match experience. Baylor’s Max Tchoutakian walked on to the Baylor campus just a month ago but he has already ascended up to the #2 spot in the lineup and is coming off a week where he came through qualies (included a win over Lenz) at the $100K Dallas Challenger and beat an ATP top 150 player (Gastao Elias) in the 1st round so he’ll be playing with a ton of confidence while his opponent Jason Tahir was just recently bumped from the 1 to 2 spot after starting off the year dropping 4 of 6. I think the matchup at 3 could go either way and at 4 I actually like Diego Galeano despite him starting slow (5-6 this year compared to 16-4 last year) because his opponent, Bruno Semenzato, has been a little streaky himself. I like Chris Mengel at 5 against whoever Baylor puts out and would be a Baylor lean at 6 with either Zsiga or Rios against Josh Levine. It’ll be interesting to see if Baylor goes with Schneider at 5 and Zsiga at 6 or if they make a change and possibly move Rios up since Zsiga has been struggling lately. Prediction: Baylor 4-2
Probable Doubles Lineup
#37 Shane/Corinteli vs. #24 Stein/Chappell
#41 Styslinger/Kwiatkowski vs. Norrie/Nunez
Frank/Altamirano vs. Hudson Blake/Trevor Johnson
[6] Duke vs. [11] Baylor – 9am cst. – Duke (9-0) comes into this one already battle tested with 6 top 30 wins (@ #5 Illinois, #18 Wake Forest, #20 Tennessee, #21 Memphis, @ #26 Northwestern, @ #27 Kentucky) while Baylor (4-1) lost a 4-3 heart-breaker to its only top 25 opponent which was #5 Illinois. Despite Duke having the better record and ranking, I’d actually consider Baylor a favorite in this one because I think they could win the match even if they dropped the doubles point whereas I think Duke has to take the doubles point to win. The matchup at #1 singles should be a good one with both players ranked in the top 10 – I like Lenz in this one because he has more big match experience. Baylor’s Max Tchoutakian walked on to the Baylor campus just a month ago but he has already ascended up to the #2 spot in the lineup and is coming off a week where he came through qualies (included a win over Lenz) at the $100K Dallas Challenger and beat an ATP top 150 player (Gastao Elias) in the 1st round so he’ll be playing with a ton of confidence while his opponent Jason Tahir was just recently bumped from the 1 to 2 spot after starting off the year dropping 4 of 6. I think the matchup at 3 could go either way and at 4 I actually like Diego Galeano despite him starting slow (5-6 this year compared to 16-4 last year) because his opponent, Bruno Semenzato, has been a little streaky himself. I like Chris Mengel at 5 against whoever Baylor puts out and would be a Baylor lean at 6 with either Zsiga or Rios against Josh Levine. It’ll be interesting to see if Baylor goes with Schneider at 5 and Zsiga at 6 or if they make a change and possibly move Rios up since Zsiga has been struggling lately. Prediction: Baylor 4-2
Probable Singles Lineup
#9 Nicolas Alvarez vs. #10 Julian Lenz
#38 Jason Tahir vs. #67 Max Tchoutakian
#77 Raphael Hemmeler vs. #27 Tony Lupieri
#95 Bruno Semenzato vs. Diego Galeano
Chris Mengel vs. Vince Schneider
Josh Levine vs. Mate Zsiga
Probable Doubles Lineup
#34 Alvarez/Hemmeler vs. #40 Zsiga/Lupieri
Tahir/Levine vs. Lenz/Galeano
Mengel/Semenzato vs. Schneider/Felipe Rios
[7] North Carolina vs. [10] UCLA – 12 noon cst – North Carolina (8-1) has been battling some injuries the last few weeks (Schneider, Hess-Olesen, Steiro) and not having 2 of those guys in the lineup likely cost them against Illinois while UCLA (5-2) came up short in its 2 biggest matches during this young season losing to both Georgia and Florida. If North Carolina was 100% healthy I’d like them a whole lot more but if Ronnie Schneider can’t go at #2 which shifts everyone else up a spot (like the Illinois match) plus you have a less than 100% Hess-Olesen and Steiro then I think UCLA wins going away 4-0 or 4-1. I’ll look at the match as if Schneider does play and plays like he is capable of. The matchup at 1 is a toss-up between a pair of Top 6 players. Schnur is the reigning National Indoor Singles Champ but is coming off a crushing loss to Illinois’s Farris Gosea (7-6 in the 3rd after leading 5-2) while McDonald has 3 ranked wins in the last 2 weeks (Lipman, Pasha, Soares) – I’ll go Schnur in 3 if it finishes. UCLA’s Dennis Mkrtchian had a nice fall and start to the spring until getting dusted 6-1 6-0 by Georgia’s Wayne Montgomery. Mkrtchian did come back the next day and record a straight set win over Florida’s Elliott Orkin but I think a near healthy Schneider takes this one at #2. Redlicki/Clark at 3 will be a back and forth grind but I like Clark in 3. I like both Brymer and Sell at 4 and 5 for UCLA and would like UNC’s Murray at 6. So if North Carolina can put out the 6 listed below I’d like them to win 4-3. If UNC has to make a substitution somewhere I’d swing it back to UCLA.
Probable Doubles Lineup
#34 Alvarez/Hemmeler vs. #40 Zsiga/Lupieri
Tahir/Levine vs. Lenz/Galeano
Mengel/Semenzato vs. Schneider/Felipe Rios
[7] North Carolina vs. [10] UCLA – 12 noon cst – North Carolina (8-1) has been battling some injuries the last few weeks (Schneider, Hess-Olesen, Steiro) and not having 2 of those guys in the lineup likely cost them against Illinois while UCLA (5-2) came up short in its 2 biggest matches during this young season losing to both Georgia and Florida. If North Carolina was 100% healthy I’d like them a whole lot more but if Ronnie Schneider can’t go at #2 which shifts everyone else up a spot (like the Illinois match) plus you have a less than 100% Hess-Olesen and Steiro then I think UCLA wins going away 4-0 or 4-1. I’ll look at the match as if Schneider does play and plays like he is capable of. The matchup at 1 is a toss-up between a pair of Top 6 players. Schnur is the reigning National Indoor Singles Champ but is coming off a crushing loss to Illinois’s Farris Gosea (7-6 in the 3rd after leading 5-2) while McDonald has 3 ranked wins in the last 2 weeks (Lipman, Pasha, Soares) – I’ll go Schnur in 3 if it finishes. UCLA’s Dennis Mkrtchian had a nice fall and start to the spring until getting dusted 6-1 6-0 by Georgia’s Wayne Montgomery. Mkrtchian did come back the next day and record a straight set win over Florida’s Elliott Orkin but I think a near healthy Schneider takes this one at #2. Redlicki/Clark at 3 will be a back and forth grind but I like Clark in 3. I like both Brymer and Sell at 4 and 5 for UCLA and would like UNC’s Murray at 6. So if North Carolina can put out the 6 listed below I’d like them to win 4-3. If UNC has to make a substitution somewhere I’d swing it back to UCLA.
Probable Singles Lineup
#6 Brayden Schnur vs. #2 Mackenzie McDonald
#19 Ronnie Schneider vs. #44 Dennis Mkrtchian
Brett Clark vs. Martin Redlicki
Esben Hess-Olesen vs. Gage Brymer
Oystein Steiro vs. Karue Sell
#104 Jack Murray vs. Austin Rapp
Probable Doubles Lineup
Schnur/Steiro vs. #6 McDonald/Redlicki
Clark/Robert Kelly vs. Joseph Di Giulio/Sell
Murray/Schneider vs. Mkrtchian/Rapp
Probable Doubles Lineup
Schnur/Steiro vs. #6 McDonald/Redlicki
Clark/Robert Kelly vs. Joseph Di Giulio/Sell
Murray/Schneider vs. Mkrtchian/Rapp
[2] Oklahoma vs. [15] Ole Miss – 12pm cst – Oklahoma (6-0) has looked every bit its #2 ranking so far this year while Ole Miss (4-0) is still a little of an unknown since they’ve played just 4 matches. Outside of the USC/Penn State match this should be the next most lopsided one because Oklahoma is just better top to bottom with the Rebels best chance to snag a point coming at #1 singles. I think OU takes the doubles point and gets straight set wins at 2, 3, and 5 to win it. Prediction: Oklahoma 4-0
Probable Singles Lineup
#26 Andrew Harris vs. #59 Nik Scholtz
#11 Axel Alvarez vs. #78 Stefan Lindmark
#31 Dane Webb vs. Gustav Hansson
Spencer Papa vs. William Kallberg
#63 Alex Ghilea vs. Zvonimir Babic
Jose Salazar vs. Ricardo Jorge
Probable Doubles Lineup
#5 Alvarez/Webb vs. #55 Hansson/Kallberg
Papa/Harris vs. Scholtz/Babic
Salazar/Ghilea vs. Lindmark/Grey Hamilton
Probable Doubles Lineup
#5 Alvarez/Webb vs. #55 Hansson/Kallberg
Papa/Harris vs. Scholtz/Babic
Salazar/Ghilea vs. Lindmark/Grey Hamilton
[1] USC vs. [16] Penn State – 3:30pm cst – USC (6-0) has started off the year looking just as good as they finished last year while Penn State (3-2) had a ton of momentum after winning its Kick-Off Weekend matches against Kentucky and South Florida only to fall flat on its faces in losses to Penn and Virginia Tech. This one will be blowout city so the Illinois faithful who are coming to watch the Illini play Cal in the match after this one don’t need to worry about this one running long. SC likely sits someone (De Vroome maybe) and still rolls. Prediction: USC 4-0
Probable Singles Lineup
#7 Yannick Hanfmann vs. #81 Leonard Stakhovsky
#24 Roberto Quiroz vs. Alex Fennell
#20 Jonny Wang vs. Matt Barry
Eric Johnson vs. Roman Trkulja
Max De Vroome vs. Aws Laaribi
#49 Nick Crystal vs. Tomas Hanzlik
Probable Doubles Lineup
#1 Hanfmann/Quiroz vs. Stakhovsky/Laaribi
#38 De Vroome/Johnson vs. Fennell/Barry
Crystal/Connor Farren vs. Trkulja/Mike Reilly
Probable Doubles Lineup
#1 Hanfmann/Quiroz vs. Stakhovsky/Laaribi
#38 De Vroome/Johnson vs. Fennell/Barry
Crystal/Connor Farren vs. Trkulja/Mike Reilly
[8] Ohio State vs. [9] Texas – 3:30pm cst – Ohio State (9-1) was cruising along until they went to College Station and lost a tight 4-3 match to Texas A&M while Texas (7-0) has had 2 close calls against Tulsa and Florida State though they were down a couple of starters in each of those matches. These 2 met last year in the NTI Quarterfinals with Ohio State pulling out a tight 4-2 win in route to winning its 1st National Indoors Championship and this one should be equally as close. The Buckeyes have taken the doubles point in 9 of 10 matches while Texas has dropped it in 4 of 7 matches so I’ll look for Ohio State to take the opening point. In singles play I look for Soren Hess-Olesen and Adrien Berkowicz to pick up wins for Texas at 1 and 3 but I see Mikael Torpegaard, Ralf Steinbach, and Hunter Callahan winning for Ohio State at 2, 4, and 5. I think Metka will be up but won’t finish. Prediction: Ohio State 4-2
Probable Singles Lineup
#53 Chris Diaz vs. #16 Soren Hess-Olesen
#30 Mikael Torpegaard vs. Lloyd Glasspool
Herkko Pollanen vs. #65 Adrien Berkowicz
#68 Ralf Steinbach vs. Nick Naumann
#110 Hunter Callahan vs. George Goldhoff
Kevin Metka vs. Michael Riechmann
Probable Doubles Lineup
#7 Steinbach/Metka vs. Hess Olesen/Glasspool
#36 Callahan/Diaz vs. Goldhoff/Berkowicz
Torpegaard/Pollanen vs. Riechmann/Adrian Ortiz
Probable Doubles Lineup
#7 Steinbach/Metka vs. Hess Olesen/Glasspool
#36 Callahan/Diaz vs. Goldhoff/Berkowicz
Torpegaard/Pollanen vs. Riechmann/Adrian Ortiz
[5] Illinois vs. [12] California – 6:30pm cst – Illinois (6-1) gets the primetime slot as the host of this year’s NTIs and they bring 2 top 10 wins (Baylor/UNC) to the table along with 5 ranked singles players while Cal (6-0) has yet to face a top 20 opponent and will be leaving the state of California for the 1st time this year. Illinois will have the crowd in its favor and I see the Illini riding that wave of noise to pick up singles wins at 1, 2, and 5 in addition to snagging the doubles point. The only court where I’d consider Cal the favorite is at 6 with Bayane. Prediction: Illinois 4-1
Probable Singles Lineup
#41 Farris Gosea vs. #42 Andre Goransson
#23 Jared Hiltzik vs. #114 Filip Bergevi
#37 Tim Kopinski vs. Billy Griffith
#69 Aron Hiltzik vs. JT Nishimura
#46 Aleks Vukic vs. Oskar Wikberg
Toshiki Matsuya vs. Greg Bayane
#23 Jared Hiltzik vs. #114 Filip Bergevi
#37 Tim Kopinski vs. Billy Griffith
#69 Aron Hiltzik vs. JT Nishimura
#46 Aleks Vukic vs. Oskar Wikberg
Toshiki Matsuya vs. Greg Bayane
Probable Doubles Lineup
#11 Kopinski/Ross Guignon vs. #30 Bayane/Chase Melton
Hiltzik/Matsuya vs. #32 Goransson/Wikberg
Bazarnik/Brian Page vs. Bergevi/Mads Engsted
[4] Georgia vs. [13] Columbia – 6:30pm cst – Georgia (4-1) has all new doubles pairings after dropping the point in 3 of 5 matches while Columbia (2-0) will play just its 3rd match this year after defeating Tennessee and Notre Dame during the Kick-Off Weekend two weeks ago. These teams met a month ago at the MLK Invitational in Atlanta in a hidden dual format though only 2 of the 6 singles matches will be repeats with Ignat defeating Smith and Oosterbaan defeating Vermeer. Columbia is a tough indoor team that you can’t ever count out but they’ll need the doubles point to have a shot in this one. The only singles mismatch that I see is at 5 where Ben Wagland should be able to handle a struggling Bert Vancura who is just 2-8 on the year. In addition to Wagland winning I look for Nathan Pasha and Nick Wood to also pick up wins at 3 and 5 and I see the revamped Georgia doubles pairings getting the point to start things off. I think Columbia will be right there on all the other courts and possibly ahead but Georgia gets the 4 points. Prediction: Georgia 4-1
Probable Singles Lineup
#17 Wayne Montgomery vs. #13 Winston Lin
#21 Austin Smith vs. #76 Dragos Ignat
#15 Nathan Pasha vs. Max Schnur
Nick Wood vs. Ashok Narayana
Ben Wagland vs. Bert Vancura
Paul Oosterbaan vs. Mike Vermeer
#21 Austin Smith vs. #76 Dragos Ignat
#15 Nathan Pasha vs. Max Schnur
Nick Wood vs. Ashok Narayana
Ben Wagland vs. Bert Vancura
Paul Oosterbaan vs. Mike Vermeer
Probable Doubles Lineup
Wagland/Smith vs. #12 Schnur/Narayana
Pasha/Diaz vs. Vermeer/Lin
Oosterbaan/Montgomery vs. Vancura/Richard Pham
So who else do you think might get upset – any of the top 5?
Quarterfinals:
[1] USC vs. [8] Ohio State
[4] Georgia vs. [5] Illinois
[3] Virginia vs. [11] Baylor
[2] Oklahoma vs. [10] UCLA
I think #14 TCU has a decent shot to upset #3 UVA in the first round. This is how they could do it:<br /><br />An in-form Cameron Norrie takes down Frank at #1 singles<br /><br />Will Stein beats Collin Altamirano for the second time in two weeks (the first coming in the qualies of the Dallas Challenger) at #4 singles<br /><br />No. 112 Guillermo Nuez gets the W over J.C. Aragone at #6<br /><br />Then, for the 4th point, the Horned Frogs would need to take the doubles point, #85 Lugones to beat the freshman Ritschard (probably their best shot), OR #48 Chappell to beat #4 Shane at #2 (unlikely, but doable). Can't realistically expect Dachs to beat Kwiatkowski at #3.
Great preview. I will predict the following…<br /><br />ROUND OF 16<br />1 USC over 16 Penn St. <br />9 Texas over 8 OSU<br />5 Illinois over 12 Cal<br />4 Georgia over 13 Columbia<br />3 UVA over 14 TCU<br />11 Baylor over 6 Duke<br />7 UNC over 10 UCLA<br />2 OU over 15 Ole Miss<br /><br />QUARTERS<br />1 USC over 9 Texas<br />5 Illinois over 4 Georgia<br />3 UVA over 11 Baylor<br />2 OU over 7 UNC<br /><br />SEMIS<br />1 USC over 5 Illinois<br />3 UVA over 2 OU<br /><br />FINALS<br />3 UVA over 1 USC 4-2<br />
Ronnie will play tomorrow. He's out there practicing now.