I crunched the numbers twice and below is what I came up with. If the NCAA seeding committee goes off the rankings then UCLA would get to host with Columbia missing out by a few points.
With the at-large cutoff at 42 it appears that Tulane and Dartmouth will be the first 2 out with Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and San Diego State just sliding in.
There is still some guesswork involved because since I only know who was ranked in the top 75 if someone has a win or multiple wins over teams ranked outside the top 75 then it’s possible that I could over/under estimate points. I’ve been pretty close all year but a small error on the first run could be compounded by the second run.
I wouldn’t expect any changes in the top 20 because all those numbers are known – but as you get down into the 40s you have more teams with unranked wins. The margin between 38-45 is less than 2 points so it’s possible that I could have an estimate that is off.
It’s possible that the selection committee could also look at things other than rankings such as who finished strong down the stretch and who didn’t. They could also look at H2H between teams next to each other and also records versus common opponents of team’s that are neck and neck. We’ll have our answers Tuesday afternoon at 5:30pm est.
| Rank | School | Points |
| 1 | Oklahoma | 90.44 |
| 2 | Baylor | 80.56 |
| 3 | Virginia | 70.48 |
| 4 | Illinois | 69.82 |
| 5 | Texas A&M | 67.31 |
| 6 | TCU | 64.32 |
| 7 | Georgia | 63.33 |
| 8 | USC | 62.59 |
| 9 | Texas | 58.83 |
| 10 | Duke | 56.67 |
| 11 | Ohio State | 49.59 |
| 12 | Wake Forest | 48.74 |
| 13 | North Carolina | 47.84 |
| 14 | Ole Miss | 43.79 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 43.01 |
| 16 | UCLA | 41.02 |
| 17 | Columbia* | 38.92 |
| 18 | South Florida | 38.79 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 38.42 |
| 20 | Florida | 38.34 |
| 21 | Texas Tech | 38.30 |
| 22 | San Diego | 38.18 |
| 23 | Stanford | 35.85 |
| 24 | Vanderbilt | 34.80 |
| 25 | Minnesota | 34.54 |
| 26 | California | 31.20 |
| 27 | Florida State | 29.26 |
| 28 | LSU | 28.87 |
| 29 | Tulsa* | 28.75 |
| 30 | Northwestern | 28.62 |
| 31 | Oklahoma State | 26.97 |
| 32 | Louisville* | 26.89 |
| 33 | Drake | 25.37 |
| 34 | Harvard* | 24.76 |
| 35 | Notre Dame* | 24.05 |
| 36 | Princeton* | 22.99 |
| 37 | NC State* | 20.54 |
| 38 | New Mexico* | 18.01 |
| 39 | Pepperdine | 18.00 |
| 40 | Georgia Tech* | 17.68 |
| 41 | Tennessee* | 17.47 |
| 42 | San Diego State* | 17.35 |
| 43 | Tulane* | 16.59 |
| 44 | Dartmouth* | 16.53 |
| 45 | Memphis* | 16.19 |
| 46 | Indiana* | 14.81 |
| 47 | SMU* | 14.55 |
| 48 | Cornell* | 14.47 |
| 49 | South Carolina* | 14.39 |
| 50 | San Francisco* | 13.25 |
If these rankings hold up and the committee follow suit you could potentially have these Round of 16 matches:
#1 Oklahoma vs. #16 UCLA
#8 USC vs. #9 Texas
#4 Illinois vs. #13 North Carolina
#5 Texas A&M vs. #12 Wake Forest
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Ole Miss
#6 TCU vs. #11 Ohio State
#7 Georgia vs. #10 Duke
#2 Baylor vs. #15 Virginia Tech
However there is one thing that will likely switch things up – the NCAA committee has in the past used head-to-head if two adjacent teams have met in the regular season. If the lower ranked team won the H2H they’ll jump the higher seed. We will likely see TCU end up as the #5 seed and Texas A&M as the #6 due to TCU beating A&M twice during the regular season. We will also probably see USC as the #7 and Georgia as the #8 due to USC beating Georgia twice. If those changes are made we’ll end up with these pairings:
#1 Oklahoma vs. #16 UCLA
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Texas
#4 Illinois vs. #13 North Carolina
#5 TCU vs. #12 Wake Forest
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Ole Miss
#6 Texas A&M vs. #11 Ohio State
#7 USC vs. #10 Duke
#2 Baylor vs. #15 Virginia Tech
As a reference point here were last year’s final rankings and in parenthesizes where they were seeded in the NCAAs.
2013-14 Final Regular Season Rankings
1. USC (1)
2. Oklahoma (2)
3. Ohio State (3)
4. Virginia (4)
5. UCLA (6) – lost to Baylor in regular season
6. Baylor (5) – beat UCLA in regular season
7. North Carolina (7)
8. Georgia (10) – lost to Texas & Texas A&M in regular season
9. Texas (9)
10. Texas A&M (8) – beat Georgia in regular season
11. Duke (11)
12. Illinois (12)
13. Kentucky (15) – lost to Florida and Notre Dame twice in regular season
14. Notre Dame (13)
15. Florida (14) – beat Kentucky in regular season
16. Columbia (16)
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Bobby — NCAA Committee moved Kentucky 2 spots (not Notre Dame) because Kentucky lost to both Florida and ND twice as you stated above.
But Wake at 12 is probably a tougher match than UNC at 13, with the Heels injury issues
If there is a formula I've not seen it – I think the committee probably keeps it quiet kind of like when they do the NCAA Basketball Tournament – you never completely know unless you're in the room.<br /><br />From what I've seen in the past the H2H applies for teams ranked next to each other – at some point the ranking that a team earns has to count for something. <br /><br />If TCU were #5 and Illinois #4 then I think TCU definitely would pass Illinois but since they're 2 spots down I don't think they will. <br /><br />Last year they moved Notre Dame down 2 spots but that's only because they loss to both teams behind them. <br /><br />
The TCU / Illinois 4 or 5 seed debate is pretty trivial since they'd play each other in the quarterfinals anyways.
Is there a set formula for this? How can you disregard TCU vs Illinois H2H?<br /><br />
Pretty sure they will switch Georgia and USC
My take on how they seed is like this: They start at #1 and work down and they look to see how a team fared against the teams directly behind or in front of them. <br /><br />So when they get down to Illinois at #4 they look at Illinois's schedule and say well they didn't play UVA and they beat A&M so they stay at #4. Then they go to #5 and look at A&M and say well they lost to the team ahead of them and behind them so they drop them down behind TCU. <br /><br />So I'd think that once Illinois is confirmed at #4 they wouldn't move them again just because TCU was moved to #5. <br /><br />
Good question – they dropped Kentucky 2 slots last year and the points difference was about the same. <br /><br />One difference is Illinois beat Texas A&M who is directly behind them so I'm not sure if they could get dropped behind a team 2 spots behind them.
Would TCU not end up 4th seed because they would then have the H2H vs Illinois? <br />
They have used H2H in the past so TCU should jump A&M and USC should jump Georgia.
Do they take into account head to head? Could TCU jump A&M because of that reason?
USC matches up well with Oklahoma. If they bring heir best tennis, they can beat Oklahoma.
Wow. If this is true, then Oklahoma plays USC in the quarters. I don't know which of the two would be more upset by this. USC was the 8th seed back in 2009 when they won their first of the recent NCAA titles. They beat top-ranked, undefeated Virginia 4-1.
Oklahoma basically 10 points over Baylor and Baylor is 10 points over UVA. That means the Big XII behemoths are not that much better but their resumes are impressive. I see no way you can't have them as the 1&2 seeds.