We are just a few days away from the start of the Round of 16 in hopefully sunny Waco so let’s start peeling the layers away and breaking down each match.
[1] Oklahoma (26-2) vs. [16] UCLA (17-9) – 10am est – Oklahoma is coming off a 4-0 win over New Mexico State and a 4-1 win over Northwestern while UCLA steamrolled both Florida Gulf Coast and Texas Tech 4-0. Even though Oklahoma won both matches comfortably the one area they didn’t look as good in was doubles. OU dropped the point to Northwestern for the 2nd time this year and even New Mexico State challenged OU by winning at #2 doubles before OU clinched at #3 by a tight 8-6 score. UCLA’s strength all year has been its top 3 but against Texas Tech on Saturday the Bruins swept the bottom 3 and that was with Gage Brymer still on the sidelines.
Oklahoma ended UCLA’s season last year when they beat the Bruins 4-2 in the NCAA Semifinals in a match that saw OU win the doubles point by winning a tiebreak at #3 doubles and then winning the final two singles matches at #1 and #6 in 3rd set tiebreaks. The only pairing that will be a rematch is the Alex Ghilea/Karue Sell matchup at #4 – last year Ghilea won 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(5) at #6.
FYI, the number beside the player’s school is the player’s Universal Tennis Rating as of May 10th. For more details about UTR check out their website.
The UTR Power 6 is the combined UTRs of the starting 6 (rounded to a whole #). An individual win/loss to anyone with a UTR difference of 1.0 or greater would be considered an upset.
Doubles Records: Oklahoma 15-13, UCLA 19-7
Note: Brymer is listed at #5 in the official lineup but with him not playing since March 28th I’m not going to put him in my projected lineup.
1. Alvarez 23-0 vs. McDonald 14-1
2. Harris 18-4 vs. Mkrtchian 14.5
3. Webb 15-6 vs. Redlicki 16-3
4. Ghilea 18-4 vs. Sell 16-6
5. Papa 11-9 vs. Rapp 8-7
6. Bragusi 9-3 vs. DiGiulio (UCLA) 8-8,
Others: Salazar (OU) 8-4, Brymer (UCLA) 3-4
1. Alvarez is 18-0 against ranked players which includes a pair of wins over #2 Julian Lenz and a win over #4 Soren Hess-Olesen while McDonald has won 7 in a row and is 12-1 against ranked players with his lone loss coming against Lenz. I think Mackie can hang with Alvarez but beating him is another story. Prediction: DNF with Alvarez (OU) leading in 3rd.
2. Harris has won 8 in a row and 10 of 11 and is 15-4 against ranked players while Mkrtchian has won 11 of his last 12 and is 5-5 against ranked. Mkrtchian has had a great year but Harris is step up in class. Prediction: Harris (OU) in 2.
3. Webb has dropped 5 of his last 8 and was the only OU player to drop a set in the 1st/2nd round while Redlicki has won 13 of his last 15. The only common opponent they had was UNC’s Brett Clark with Redlicki beating Clark in 3 while Webb lost to Clark in 2 but was up 3-0 in the 3rd in another match that went unfinished. Webb is going to have a hard time coming out of his slump with no easy ones from here on out. Prediction: Redlicki (UCLA) in 2
4. Ghilea has won 4 of his last 6 and 9 of 11 while Sell has won 8 of his last 9. Both players won each of their matches over the weekend in straight sets. Sell went 1-2 against ranked opponents losing to Jonny Wang twice and beating Texas Tech’s Alex Sendegeya while Ghilea went 2-2 against ranked beating Mate Zsiga and Max De Vroome and losing to Texas Tech’s Jolan Cailleau and Texas A&M’s AJ Catanzariti. This is a match that Sell can win but he’s come up short in the big ones too many times for me to take him. Prediction: Ghilea (OU) in 3.
5. Papa had dropped 4 of 5 until he rolled Northwestern’s Fedor Baev 6-1, 6-4 in the 2nd round while Rapp had dropped 3 in a row until he beat Texas Tech’s Francisco Zambon 6-4, 6-4 in the 2nd round. Rapp has got better as the season has went on but so has Papa and overall Papa is the better player. Prediction: Papa (OU) in 2
6. Bragusi has split his last 4 though one of those wins came in the deciding match of the Big 12 Championship against Felipe Rios while DiGiulio snapped a 3-match losing streak with a pair of wins last weekend including a 6-3, 6-4 win over Texas Tech’s Connor Curry. Bragusi has come through in the clutch every time his name has been called and even though it won’t come down to his match he’ll still win going away. Prediction: Bragusi (OU) in 2
UCLA has won the doubles point in 5 of its last 6 matches and I look for the Bruins to make it 6 of 7 as I see them winning at #1 and #2. In looking over the singles matches I see OU as a pretty solid lock with Harris, Papa, and Bragusi at 2, 5, and 6 so UCLA would need 1, 3, and 4 to pull it out. I like Michael Redlicki at #3 over the slumping Dane Webb and I think both Mackenzie McDonald and Karue Sell can push their matches to 3rd sets but I can’t quite see them getting the W. A potential game changer would be if Gage Brymer is able to play at #5 and play well. I’d take a 100% Brymer over Papa which would have this match decided at #1. Regardless of who plays I think Oklahoma still pulls it out but they’ll be pushed very hard by Billy’s boys. Prediction: Oklahoma 4-2
[8] Georgia (23-4) vs. [9] Texas (21-6) – 10am est – These teams last met in the 2014 National Indoors with Texas winning 4-3 in a match that had one of the stranger endings that you’ll ever see. With the match tied at 3 Georgia’s Ben Wagland had a match point on the Goldhoff 30-40 serve but after calling the Goldhoff serve out he was overruled for a 3rd time (point penalty) which gave Goldhoff the game for 5-5 and then Wagland got a code violation for a verbal outburst which gave him a game penalty and since they played TBs at 5-5 (experimental scoring) that was the match. Both Georgia and Wagland have put that fiasco behind them but it’ll be interesting to see Wagland and Goldhoff matched up again at #4.
Georgia looked good in the 1st and 2nd rounds with 4-0 shutouts over Winthrop and #27 Florida State while Texas blew out Navy 4-0 before getting a major challenge from #26 Cal in the 2nd round. Texas won the match 4-1 but they were pushed at several spots before Soren Hess-Olesen came back from a set and 4-2 down to clinch it 6-3 in the 3rd.
Doubles Records: Georgia 19-8, Texas 13-13
2. #30 Austin Smith (UGA 14.24) vs. #42 Lloyd Glasspool (TX 14.01)
3. #31 Nathan Pasha (UGA 14.34) vs. #54 Adrien Berkowicz (TX 13.96)
4. Ben Wagland (UGA 13.49) vs. George Goldhoff (TX 13.70)
5. Nick Wood (UGA 13.84) vs. Nick Naumann (TX 13.75)
6. Paul Oosterbaan (UGA 13.84) vs. Clement Homs (TX 13.83)
Dual-Match Singles Records:
1. Montgomery 14-3 vs. Hess-Olesen 20-4
1. Montgomery has won 7 in a row and 11 of 12 with a 5-3 record against ranked opponents while Hess-Olesen has won 4 of his last 5 and is 14-5 against ranked opponents. Hess-Olesen came from behind on Saturday to beat Cal’s #29 Andre Goransson 6-3 in the 3rd while Montgomery beat Florida State’s #46 Benjamin Lock in straight sets. Hess-Olesen only had 1 match go unfinished while Montgomery had 9. It’ll be interesting to see if that comes into play though I’m thinking this one probably won’t finish because it’ll be a long deuce filled grind. Prediction: DNF with it on serve in the 3rd.
2. Smith stopped a 2-match losing streak on Saturday when he beat Florida State’s #101 Michael Rinaldi 6-2, 6-2 while Glasspool has won 4 of 5 after beating Cal’s #97 Filip Bergevi 6-4, 7-5 in the 2nd round. Smith went 7-6 in dual match play against ranked opponents while Glasspool went 7-4. They had 2 common opponents this year with both beating Columbia’s Dragos Ignat while Glasspool lost to FSU’s Michael Rinaldi back in January. Prediction: Smith (UGA) in 3.
3. Pasha has won 3 of his last 4 after beating Florida State’s Marco Nunez 7-6, 6-2 while Berkowicz has lost 3 of his last 4 after falling to Cal’s Greg Bayane 7-5, 6-3. Berkowicz also sat out Friday’s match against Navy which makes me wonder if he’s 100%. Pasha went 2-4 against ranked opponents while Berkowicz went 5-5. Both guys beat Marco Nunez and Columbia’s Max Schnur in straights. Berkowicz is 1-3 in NCAA Tournament matches while Pasha is 7-2. This ones comes down to who is more consistent – I’ll go with the Georgia senior over the Texas senior. Prediction: Pasha (UGA) in 2
4. Wagland has won his last 7 completed matches with 6 unfinished matches in between while Goldhoff has won 3 of his last 5 with 5 others going unfinished. Both of Wagland’s matches last weekend went unfinished with him down a set but up a break in the 2nd against Florida State’s Cristian Gonzalez Mendez while Goldhoff double bageled a guy from Navy and was on serve in the 3rd against Cal’s Oskar Wikberg. They had 2 common opponents this year with Goldhoff beating Columbia’s Bert Vancura while Wagland lost to him and Goldhoff lost to Illinois’s Aleks Vukic while Wagland was in a 3rd set tiebreak with Vukic when the match was halted due to a clinch. These two met a year ago in the match I mentioned above with Goldhoff winning a wild one. This is a tough one to predict because both are fairly unpredictable but I’ll go with the hotter hand. Prediction: Wagland (UGA) in 3
5. Wood has won 4 of his last 5 while Naumann has won 4 of his last 6. Naumann beat Cal’s JT Nishimura 6-1, 6-4 on Saturday while Wood’s match against Florida State’s Jose Gracia went unfinished though Wood was up 6-3, 6-6 (7-7). They only had 1 common opponent this year in Columbia’s Ashok Narayana – Wood beat him in 3 while Naumann was down a break in the 3rd when the match was halted. Naumann beat Wood 6-4, 6-3 a year ago during the National Indoors. I think Naumann is playing just a little better at the moment – Prediction: Naumann (TX) in 3
6. Oosterbaan has won 12 in a row while Homs has won 3 of his last 4. Oosterbaan’s match on Saturday against Florida State’s Terrance Whitehurst went unfinished with Paul serving for the match up 6-4, 6-5 while Homs led Cal’s Billy Griffith 5-4 in the 3rd. Homs has wins this year over Florin Bragusi and Kevin Metka while Oosterbaan’s best win came over Jordi Arconada. Oosterbaan’s serve would have to be on fire to keep him in this one because I think Homs is just a little stronger. Prediction: Homs (TX) in 2
I like Georgia in doubles at #1 and #2 and then I look for Smith, Pasha, and Wagland to pick up wins at 2, 3, and 4. I like Naumann and Homs for Texas at 5 and 6 with 1 likely going unfinished. There should be several 3-setters but I think Georgia pulls it out. Prediction: Georgia 4-2
Yes 9 is the limit.
What is the limit that team can take and be eligible to play … 9? They don't seem to have a doubles specialist (like Virginia with Corintelli and Styslinger) so could be three singles players. The twitter photo seems to include Ryoto Tachi and Michael Guzman
Yeah I didn't see him in that photo either.
Wonder if Gage Brymer even made the trip to Waco? UCLA twitter posted a photo from Hawkins Indoor Tennis Complex.<br />
Watched the Oklahoma match on Fox Sports. Harris definitely looked in pain on his back. Looked like a herniated disc injury from the way he was being stretched and moving. If he isn't 100%, this could be a problem. They have been untouchable at line 2 and that might make them vulnerable.
Probably not – though Ohio State would definitely have a better chance indoors. I think Illinois and USC should win regardless of venue.
Just curious if your predictions would change if the Round of 16 matches are played indoors. For example, Illinois vs North Carolina, Texas A&M vs Ohio State, and even Southern Cal vs Duke. Just assuming that all teams will practice at Baylor indoor courts but wonder if any will travel to SMU indoor courts to practice.