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2015 NCAA Round of 16 Preview,
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USC[2] Baylor (23-5) vs. [17-32] #18 South Florida (21-6) – Thursday 8pm – Baylor is coming off shutout wins over Bryant and #29 LSU while South Florida blanked #63 Boise State and #15 Virginia Tech. This is South Florida’s first ever trip to the Round of 16 while Baylor is back for the 14th consecutive year.
Doubles Records: Baylor 25-2, South Florida 22-5
UTR Starting 6 Power Rating: Baylor 86, South Florida 82
The UTR Power 6 is the combined UTRs of the starting 6 (rounded to a whole #). An individual win/loss to anyone with a UTR difference of 1.0 or greater would be considered an upset.
FYI, the number beside the player’s school is the player’s Universal Tennis Rating as of May 12th. For more details about UTR check out their website.
Projected Singles Lineups with UTRs in ( ):
1. #2 Julian Lenz (BU 15.06) vs. #21 Roberto Cid (USF 14.37)
2. #35 Tony Lupieri (BU 14.10) vs. #124 Sasha Gozun (USF 13.65)
3. #58 Max Tchoutakian (BU 14.39) vs. Oliver Pramming (USF 13.69)
4. Diego Galeano (BU 13.76) vs. Ignacio Gonzalez-Muniz (USF 13.34)
5. #116 Mate Zsiga (BU 14.13) vs. Justin Roberts (USF 13.19)
6. Felipe Rios (BU 14.13) vs. Vadym Kalyuzhnyy (USF 13.32)
Dual-Match Singles Records – # in ( ) is W-L vs. ranked:
1. Lenz 14-4 (11-4) vs. Cid 9-4 (6-4)
2. Lupieri 9-9 (4-9) vs. Gozun 7-6 (3-4)
3. Tchoutakian 15-7 (4-7) vs. Pramming 8-4 (2-2)
4. Galeano 12-4 (2-2) vs. Gonzalez-Muniz 8-4 (0-4)
5. Zsiga 13-3 (2-2) vs. Roberts 8-4 (0-1)
6. Rios 19-3 (1-0) vs. Kalyuzhnyy 9-2
#1 singles – Lenz has won 7 of his last 9 completed matches with the 2 losses coming to #1 Axel Alvarez while Cid has won his last 5. Neither finished a match last weekend though they were both ahead in each with Lenz leading LSU’s #76 Jordan Daigle 6-4, 3-4 and Cid leading Virginia Tech’s #68 Amerigo Contini 6-4, 6-5. Prediction: Lenz (BU) in 2.
#2 singles – Lupieri has lost his last 4 completed matches though both his matches last weekend went unfinished with his match with LSU’s Chris Simpson tied at 1-1 in the 3rd. Gozun has won his last 3 completed matches with 5 other matches in between going unfinished. Gozun won the clincher over Virginia Tech’s #43 Andreas Bjerrehus 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. Prediction: DNF with Gozun (USF) leading.
#3 singles – Tchoutakian has won 6 of his last 8 while his match against LSU’s Boris Arias went unfinished with Max leading 7-6, 0-1. Pramming has won 8 of his last 9 though his match against Virginia Tech’s #109 Jorge Monteiro went unfinished with Monteiro leading 7-6, 6-5. Prediction: DNF with Tchoutakian (BU) leading.
#4 singles – Galeano has won his last 5 including a 6-4, 6-2 win over LSU’s Tam Trinh while Gonzalez-Muniz has won his last 2 though 5 of his last 7 have gone unfinished including his match against Virginia Tech’s #105 Hunter Koontz which Muniz led 2-1 in the 3rd. Prediction: Galeano (BU) in 2
#5 singles – Zsiga has won 11 of his last 12 completed matches including a 6-4, 6-0 win over LSU’s Andrew Korinek. Roberts has won 6 in a row including a 6-0, 6-2 dismantling of Virginia Tech’s Edoardo Tessaro. I don’t see Zsiga dropping the match or even a set. Prediction: Zsiga (BU) in 2
#6 singles – Rios has won 9 of his last 10 including a 6-1, 6-1 win over LSU’s Simon Freund while Kalyuzhnyy has won 5 in a row including a 6-4, 7-6 win over Virginia Tech’s Jai Corbett. Prediction: DNF with Rios (BU) leading
I like Baylor at #2 and #3 doubles and then look for Lenz, Galeano, and Zsiga to pick up straight set wins at 1, 4, and 5. South Florida will be competitive in the other spots but Baylor is too strong to slip up. Prediction: Baylor 4-0
[7] USC (24-4) vs. [10] Duke (24-6) – Thursday 8pm – USC posted a pair of shutouts last weekend with routine wins over Idaho and #40 San Diego State while Duke blanked South Carolina State before coming from behind to beat #23 Stanford 4-1. These teams last met in the 2012 NCAA Quarterfinals with USC winning 4-1.
Doubles Records: USC 17-11, Duke 21-9
UTR Starting 6 Power Rating: USC 86, Duke 84
Projected Singles Lineups with UTRs in ( ):
1. #15 Yannick Hanfmann (USC 14.56) vs. #13 Nicolas Alvarez (DU 14.52)
2. #25 Roberto Quiroz (USC 14.49) vs. #41 Jason Tahir (DU 14.09)
3. #85 Eric Johnson (USC 14.36) vs. #57 Raphael Hemmeler (DU 14.28)
4. #45 Jonny Wang (USC 14.36) vs. Bruno Semenzato (DU 13.90)
5. #94 Max de Vroome (USC 14.15) vs. Chris Mengel (DU 13.69)
6. #61 Nick Crystal (USC 13.99) vs. TJ Pura (DU 13.43)
Dual-Match Singles Records – # in ( ) is W-L vs. ranked:
1. Hanfmann 10-8 (7-8) vs. Alvarez 14-6 (7-6)
2. Quiroz 15-4 (8-4) vs. Tahir 13-12 (4-12)
3. Johnson 20-2 (4-1) vs. Hemmeler 21-5 (6-4)
4. Wang 18-3 (0-2) vs. Semenzato 16-7 (0-4)
5. De Vroome 17-3 (0-2) vs. Mengel 14-3 (0-1)
6. Crystal 18-2 vs. Pura 17-5
#1 singles – Hanfmann snapped a 5-match losing streak with a win over Idaho’s Odon Barta and he was leading SDSU’s #121 Freddy Gelbrich 6-3, 3-4 when the match was halted by the clinch. Alvarez has split his last 6 but is coming off a 6-4, 6-0 win over Stanford’s #26 Tom Fawcett. Hanfmann beat Alvarez 6-1, 6-1 back in October in the quarterfinals of the ITA All Americans but Hanfmann isn’t the same player right now. Prediction: Alvarez (DU) in 2.
#2 singles – Quiroz has won 8 of his last 9 and he led SDSU’s Hendrik Jebens 6-3, 5-3 the last time out while Tahir has won 4 of his last 5 and he was serving for the match against Stanford’s #71 John Morrissey before the match got stopped. This will be the 4th career meeting between these two but the 1st since Quiroz won 6-2, 6-4 back in 2012 at the USTA Clay Court Invitational. The other 2 matches came back in the 2011-12 season with both going unfinished with Quiroz leading. Tahir has played several ranked opponents close but he’s come out on the short end of the stick more times than not – I look for the same thing to happen again here. Prediction: Quiroz (USC) in 3
#3 singes – Johnson has won 6 in a row and 18 of 19 and is coming off a quick win over SDSU’s Marko Goles-Babic after GB retired down 3-0 in the 1st. Hemmeler is coming off a 6-4, 6-4 win over Stanford David Wilczynski and has now split his last 4 though he’s won 11 of his last 13. This should be the closest of all the matches with both guys having great seasons. Prediction: DNF with Johnson (USC) leading in 3rd
#4 singles – Wang has won 16 in a row and is coming off a 6-3, 6-2 win over SDSU’s Thorsten Bertsch while Semenzato has won 5 of his last 6 and is coming off a 6-2, 6-3 win over Stanford’s David Hsu which snapped Hsu’s 11-match winning streak. Prediction: Wang (USC) in 3.
#5 singles – De Vroome has won 9 of his last 10 but neither match last weekend finished though he led in both. Mengel has won 4 of his last 5 with his last match against Stanford’s Robert Stineman going unfinished with Mengel up a break in the 3rd. Prediction: DNF with Mengel (DU) leading in 3rd.
#6 singles – Crystal has won 4 in a row and 8 of 9 including a 6-0, 6-3 win over SDSU’s Santiago Cevallos while Pura has won 4 in a row and 6 of 7 including the 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 match clinching win over Stanford’s Nolan Paige. Crystal beat Pura 6-2, 6-2 back on October 10th in the opening round of the Battle In the Bay Classic. Prediction: Crystal (USC) in 2.
I’m going to take USC in doubles with wins at #1 and #3 and then in singles USC gets it done at 2, 4, and 6 while Duke gets a win at 1. I think as many as 4 of these singles matches will go to a 3rd set. Prediction: USC 4-1
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No matter how South Florida and Columbia do tomorrow, it is amazing what both of these teams–from outside the power 5 conferences–have accomplished this year. Both finishing top 20 in the final regular season rankings is incredible, considering their respective league schedules. The room for error for the two in regard to national ranking is much, much smaller than for the traditional powers from the traditional power conferences, which have multiple opportunities to gain usable wins. And considering that Columbia only played 19 regular season matches (at least a half dozen less than everyone else), it is surprising that its only bad loss over the last two years–a 4-3 road loss in March to Northwestern in which it had two team match points–didn't hurt its ranking more. And I still don't understand how South Florida lost to Penn St. I guess everyone–even the teams that can least afford it–is allowed to have an off day.<br /><br />Seems like both are in good shape to finish top 16 in the final rankings, which would mean hosting a regional for National Indoors next year. South Florida has almost everyone coming back, while Columbia loses three singles starters and will probably experience a slight dip next year before its incoming freshmen acclimate themselves to college tennis.<br /><br />Very refreshing to have some new faces in the crowd.