There are some conferences that play a round robin format during the regular season and some that do not. The ones that do not play a full round robin format usually seed the conference tournament based off the most recent ITA rankings. The next thing you’re probably wondering is what if there aren’t any teams ranked in the ITA top 75 – then what? The conferences are sent a list of the expanded ITA rankings that includes just the schools in their conference so that way they can seed accordingly.
Below I’ll go through each conference with my best guess on the number of teams that I anticipate qualifying for this year’s NCAA tournament. There will be a lot of one bid leagues since the at-large cut-off is usually right around 42.
American Athletic Conference (AAC) – Memphis, TN
Locks – #19 South Florida, #24 Tulsa, #27 SMU, #28 Tulane
Bubble – #38 Memphis
Expected number of NCAA bids – 5
Comments – Memphis has a chance to move off the bubble if they can beat South Florida at home this Sunday or if they can beat either Tulsa, SMU, or Tulane in the AAC quarterfinals. I think Memphis is going to find a way to beat one of those teams at the conference tournament, which it hosts, and will end up making the field.
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) – Cary, NC
Locks – #1 Virginia, #5 North Carolina, #7 Wake Forest #22 Florida State, #30 Georgia Tech
Bubble – #40 Virginia Tech, #42 NC State, #43 Notre Dame
Expected number of NCAA bids – 7
Comments – If Virginia Tech beats Miami this week and then wins at least once match at the ACC Tournament I think they are good to go. Notre Dame and NC State play this Sunday in Raleigh in what may be an elimination match. Notre Dame has a 13-12 record so if it loses to NC State it would need to win it’s opening round match at the ACC Tournament to keep its record above .500. If the Irish finished the season with a 13-14 record they would be left out of the NCAAs regardless of whether their ranking was high enough to qualify them as an at-large (see NCAA .500 rule). The one thing that both UND and NCST have going for them is that they each have a top 10 win so if those teams keep rising then so will they. It’s still early but at this point I’ll say the winner of this weekend’s match makes it in with the loser left on the outside looking in.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. Florida Gulf Coast is currently ranked No. 74 and they’ll be the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. VCU is the No. 1 seed and the tournament is just 75 miles miles away from its Richmond campus.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. St. John’s is currently ranked No. 62 and they’ll be the favorite to win the tournament.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. Weber State and Idaho will be the favorites win the tournament.
Big South Conference – Lynchburg, VA
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. Coastal Carolina and Presbyterian are the top two seeds in the tournament.
Locks – #3 Ohio State, #15 Northwestern, #17 Illinois, #21 Michigan
Bubble – #39 Penn State, #47 Wisconsin
Expected number of NCAA bids – 5
Comments – Wisconsin hosts Penn State on Friday night in a huge match for both teams. If Penn State wins they’ll be dancing in May while Wisconsin would then need to beat Indiana, Purdue, and then win at least one and probably two matches in the B1G tournament. On the flip side if Wisconsin beats Penn State and then also beats IU and PU they’ll be on the right side of the fence while Penn State would need to pull off an upset in the B1G tournament.
Big 12 Conference – Stillwater, OK
Locks – #2 TCU, #8 Oklahoma, #10 Texas Tech, #14 Oklahoma State, #18 Texas
Bubble – #37 Baylor
Expected number of NCAA bids – 6
Comments – Baylor’s win over Texas last week should be enough to get the Bears into the party.
Locks – None
Bubble – #50 UC Santa Barbara
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – I think UCSB is a little too far off the pace to make it as an at-large so they’ll need to win the conference tournament to qualify. #65 Cal Poly, #69 UC Davis, and #75 UC Irvine will be the other strong contenders out in the desert.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. #72 UNC Wilmington, College of Charleston, William & Mary, and Elon (host) will be the serious contenders.
Locks – #26 Rice
Bubble – #44 Old Dominion
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – Old Dominion has won 16 of its last 17 but it needs to at least make the finals of the conference tournament to have a shot – a loss any sooner would be a death blow.
Horizon League – Ann Arbor, MI
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament.
I’d be surprised if someone other than Valparaiso or Green Bay won the tournament.
Locks – #25 Columbia
Bubble – #36 Dartmouth, #46 Princeton, #48 Harvard
Expected number of NCAA bids – 2
Comments – Dartmouth should beat Yale and Brown this weekend but to lock up its spot in the field it’ll need to win at Harvard the following week. It’s possible that Dartmouth could make it in with a loss to Harvard but it’d be awfully close. Princeton probably needs to win out to get in and that would include a win at Columbia on Friday. Harvard is probably a long-shot that would need to win out and get help to move up from No. 48 to No. 42.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament.
I’d be surprised if someone other than Quinnipiac or Marist won the tournament.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament.
The 4-team conference tournament will be pretty wide open with Western Michigan the slight favorite but Buffalo, Binghamton, and Northern Illinois will each have a shot as well.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. South Carolina State is the only team in the conference with a non-losing record (6-6) so I’d make them the favorite but Bethune-Cookman and Florida A&M will be right there as well.
Locks – None
Bubble – #49 Drake
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – Drake has had a good year but they took on one too many losses and will most likely need to win the tournament to make it in. Wichita State is the host so you can’t overlook them and Southern Illinois is having its best season in decades.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – There are three ranked teams in the conference, #57 Utah State/#60 New Mexico/#68 Boise State, but none are ranked high enough to be considered on the bubble. In addition to the three ranked teams I’d also give San Diego State and UNLV (host) a chance of winning the automatic bid – too close to call.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. St. Francis (PA) and Mount St. Mary’s are the only two schools with winning records but Bryant is the defending champion.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. Tennessee Tech and Eastern Kentucky are the two favorites.
Pac-12 Conference – Ojai, CA
Locks – #4 UCLA, #9 USC, #16 Cal, #29 Stanford,
Bubble – #35 Washington, #41 Oregon
Expected number of NCAA bids – 6
Comments – Washington hosts Oregon this weekend in a match that both teams really want. Whoever wins will be able to breathe a little easier but both will have a chance to pick up a decent win in the opening round of the Pac-12 tournament against Utah or Arizona. Right now I think both teams will find a way in but that could change.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. Navy, Lehigh, Colgate, and Bucknell will be the main contenders.
Locks – #6 Georgia, #11 Texas A&M, #12 Arkansas, #13 Florida, #20 Kentucky, #23 Mississippi State
Bubble – #32 Ole Miss, #33 LSU, #34 Alabama, #45 Vanderbilt
Expected number of NCAA bids – 9
Comments – I think Ole Miss, LSU, and Alabama will make it in but Vanderbilt will need to beat a higher ranked team to boost its chances. The Commodores play at Mississippi State and Alabama this weekend so the opportunity is there to state its case that it belongs with everyone else.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. #52 East Tennessee State will be the heavy favorite with Samford the only other viable contender.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. #54 Lamar, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, and Abilene Christian are the three with a legitimate chance of winning.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. Jackson State and Alabama State are the top seeds.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. #51 Denver will be a heavy, heavy favorite to win it.
Sun Belt Conference – New Orleans, LA
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. #53 Georgia State, Georgia Southern, South Alabama, and Troy are the leading contenders.
Locks – #31 San Diego
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – San Diego is the heavy favorite to win the conference tournament with #56 Pepperdine, #61 BYU, #66 Loyola Marymount, and #71 Pacific probably a piece or two away from really having a chance.
Locks – None
Bubble – None
Expected number of NCAA bids – 1
Comments – The only team to make the NCAAs will be the winner of the conference tournament. New Mexico State and UMKC are the only ones with a real chance of winning since Grand Canyon is still ineligible due to its recent transition from D2 to D1.
That is a good question – doesn't make much sense considering where there schools are located – New York City would have been the optimal spot. You'd think if they are going to step away from their geographical footprint they'd pick somewhere more exotic than Greater Columbia, South Carolina – at least go down to where there is some water like Charleston or Hilton Head.
why on earth is the Big East tournament in SC?