This set of rankings used each team’s nine best wins as will next week’s unpublished rankings which will be used to make the at-large selections for the NCAA Tournament.
Purdue and Indiana were the biggest upward movers with both teams coming up six spots while Drake and Cal Poly had the biggest drops with both falling five spots.
The following teams moved up at least 4 spots versus the last rankings – movement in ( ):
#12 Cal – (+4) – beat Washington and USC
#27 Stanford (+5) – beat Oregon
#32 Virginia Tech (+4) – beat Florida State
#35 Penn State (+4) – beat Illinois
#37 Notre Dame (+4) – beat Duke
#45 South Carolina (+5) – beat Arkansas
#48 Denver (+4) – beat New Mexico
#53 Purdue (+6) – beat Wisconsin and Minnesota
#58 Indiana (+6) – beat Wisconsin and Minnesota
#70 UC Davis (+4) – beat UC Irvine
The following teams dropped down at least 4 spots versus the last rankings (still ranked):
#51 Drake (-5) – lost to unranked Southern Illinois and Illinois State
#52 Princeton (-4) – lost to unranked Penn
#57 Wisconsin (-4) – lost to Purdue and Indiana
#62 Georgia State (-4) – lost to UT Arlington
#68 Cal Poly (-5) – lost to UC Santa Barbara
There were 0 teams to drop out or enter this week which is the first time all season that has happened.
My projections were actually the best they’ve been all season with me nailing everyone in the top 40. My points were off slightly on Stanford and Penn State though the reason Penn State was off was because it incorrectly keyed its road win over Wisconsin as a home win so they missed out on a .06 road bonus.
Here is a list of the teams that I’d consider to be on the NCAA Men’s Bubble along with remaining matches (if any) and best wins. Everybody on this list wants to see San Diego win the West Coast Conference Tournament because if USD were to get upset that means they’d still get in but as an at-large instead of getting the WCC’s automatic berth. USD taking an at-large bid would lower the cutoff from 42 to 41 which means an extra team on the bubble would be left out.
4/26 Ranking:
#37 Notre Dame (21.89) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – North Carolina, Michigan, NC State, Indiana, Duke (2X), Miami, Western Michigan, Louisville
Outlook – VERY GOOD
Comments – Indiana has gone on a tear down the stretch so that should really help Notre Dame. Indiana, Michigan, and Western Michigan are the only of its best wins that are still playing and it looks like Indiana and Michigan will play in the B1G quarters so one of those teams is guaranteed a spot in the semifinals.
#38 Oregon (21.73) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – at Washington, Old Dominion, UCSB, Denver, Boise State, Indiana, at Loyola Marymount, at Pacific, Utah
Outlook – VERY GOOD
Comments – 6 of their best 9 wins are playing this week (Wash/Utah/ODU are done). I think Oregon is going to get in regardless but for safe measure it wants Denver to win the Summit, San Diego to win the WCC, and UCSB to at least make the finals of the Big West.
#39 Dartmouth (21.67) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – Tulane, Memphis, Drake, Princeton, Harvard, Cornell, St. John’s (2X), Clemson
Outlook – PRETTY GOOD
Comments: Drake and St. John’s are the only of its best wins still playing – Drake dropped five spots this week after two losses last week so that won’t help. St. John’s will be favored to win its conference tournament but I don’t see them coming up much. The thing working in Dartmouth’s favor is its almost 2 point lead on the group at 41-44.
#40 Washington (21.57) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – USC, Texas, East Tennessee State, Pepperdine, Cal Poly, Utah (2X), Penn, Portland
Outlook – PRETTY GOOD
Comments – 4 of their 9 best wins are playing this week with Cal Poly and Portland probably having the best chance to pick up ranked wins. Washington fans also want San Diego to win the WCC. I think Washington makes it in with a little room to spare.
#41 Memphis (19.92) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – at SMU, at Ole Miss, at Vanderbilt, Harvard, Denver, at Middle Tennessee State, at San Diego State, VCU, Louisville
Outlook – TIGHT
Comments – Denver and SDSU are the only best wins still playing – SDSU will likely be playing a ranked New Mexico team in the Mountain West so a win there could bump it up in the rankings.
#42 Baylor (19.84) – at Oklahoma State (Big 12 Tournament),
9 Best Wins – Texas, Columbia, Oregon, Memphis, UC Irvine, Abilene Christian, 3 sub 125s
Outlook – REAL TIGHT
Comments – BU is the only bubble team that can still improve its stock on its own merits – a win over Oklahoma State would seal a bid. Texas and UC Irvine are the only two of its best wins still playing but Texas will be an underdog against Oklahoma as will UC Irvine against UCSB in the Big West semis. I think if Baylor loses to Oklahoma State they are probably going to be the first one out.
#43 Alabama (19.62) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – Ole Miss, LSU, S. Carolina, Princeton, Georgia St, Auburn, N Florida, Miami, UAB
Outlook – TIGHT
Comments – None of its best wins are still playing but the South Carolina win will be worth more since they rose from 50 to 45. Those extra points may be enough to push Alabama past Baylor especially if Baylor loses to Oklahoma State.
#44 NC State (18.92) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – Wake Forest, Dartmouth, Drake, South Carolina, Clemson (2X), Miami, Elon, Troy
Outlook – NEEDS HELP
Comments – The South Carolina win will improve but the Drake and Clemson wins will probably go the other way to offset the gains. NC State needs Baylor to lose and needs Denver and San Diego State to get beat by lower ranked teams which would in effect drop them in the rankings and thus bring down Memphis’s point total.
#45 South Carolina (18.19) – regular season over (currently has a 14-15 record)
9 Best Wins – Arkansas (2X), Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Clemson, Tennessee, 2 sub 125s
Outlook – OUT –
Comments – A sub .500 record eliminates the Gamecocks from consideration – even if they picked up an extra match this week to get to .500 it likely wouldn’t be enough to move up to No. 42.
If I had to make a prediction today I’d say that Baylor, NC State, and South Carolina are the three that will just miss out while everyone else makes it in.
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Here is a quick look back at last year’s NCAA Bubble Watch with notes on how some teams made it and others didn’t make it – ranking points total listed first. You had to feel sorry for Tulane after they missed out by just .10 – brutal!!
17.93 – Pepperdine (fourth to last team in) – was ranked #42 in the last published rankings and finished at #9. Waves beat #52 San Francisco in the WCC Tournament before losing to #22 San Diego – points total rose 1.75 points.
17.28 – San Diego State (third to last team in) – was ranked #38 in last published rankings and finished at #40. SDSU got upset by an unranked Nevada in the Mountain West Tournament and its point total fell 1.50 points.
17.08 Tennessee (second to last team in) – was ranked #40 in the last published rankings and finished at #41. UT did not play the last week of the season since the SEC Tournament was held the week prior. It’s point total dropped .35 from the week prior.
16.93 Georgia Tech (last team in) – was ranked #55 in the last published rankings but rose all the way to #42 due to wins over #14 Virginia Tech and #35 Notre Dame at the ACC Tournament. Those wins brought its point total up 6.11.
16.83 Tulane (first team out) – was ranked #41 in the last published rankings but fell to #43 in the final unpublished rankings. Tulane’s conference tournament finished the week prior with its point total coming up .37 from it’s best 9 wins moving around.
16.32 Dartmouth (second team out) – was ranked #46 in the last published rankings and came up to #44 after beating #34 Harvard in the final week of the season. Dartmouth’s points total came up 1.68 points week over week.
15.76 Memphis (third team out) – was ranked #43 in the last published rankings and fell to #45 in the final unpublished rankings despite not playing the final week. Memphis’s points total fell .10 week over week.
The reason why I listed all of these is to show you how these team went up or down to make it or not make. Just about everyone that was on the bubble last year played that final weekend of the season so that’s why we saw some large swings. This year basically everyone on the bubble is finished playing so that’s why I don’t expect to see a big jump or decrease in point totals.
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Below I’ll breakdown the team Top 10 looking at the 9 best wins that were used in the rankings this week along with other quality ranked wins. I also listed the point totals gained from the best wins and losses to come up with the computer score.
- 9 Best Wins (750.4): #2 UCLA, #3 North Carolina, #4 TCU, #6 Wake Forest (2X), #9 Florida, #10 Oklahoma, #20 Kentucky, #21 Florida State
- Other Quality Wins: #23 Tulsa, #28 San Diego, at #30 Georgia Tech, #36 Virginia Tech, #41 Notre Dame, #44 NC State
- Losses (9.7): #3 North Carolina (2X), #6 Wake Forest, #15 Illinois
- Computer Score: 750.4/9.7 = 77.36 (was 74.16)
- What’s Coming Up: NCAA Tournament
- Comments: Virginia should be locked in as the #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament however I suppose that UNC could jump ahead of them and UCLA if the committee goes off H2H.
- 9 Best Wins (661.2): #6 Georgia (2X), #8 USC (2X), #13 Texas A&M, #16 Cal (2X), #27 SMU, at #32 Stanford
- Other Quality Wins: #28 San Diego, #30 Georgia Tech, #32 Stanford (2X), #35 Oregon, at #37 Washington
- Losses (9.2): #1 Virginia, #3 North Carolina
- Computer Score: 661.2/9.2 = 71.87 (was 70.57)
- What’s Coming Up: NCAA Tournament
- Comments: UCLA should be finish the year ranked #2 but they drop to a 3 seed for the NCAAs due to the H2H loss to UNC.
- 9 Best Wins (742.6): #1 Virginia (2X + 1 on road), #2 UCLA, #5 Ohio State, #9 Texas Tech, #10 Oklahoma, #15 Illinois, #30 Georgia Tech (2X)
- Other Quality Wins: #34 Vanderbilt, #36 Virginia Tech, #42 NC State (2X + 1 on road)
- Losses (10.6): #1 Virginia, #7 Wake Forest, at #21 Florida State, at #41 Notre Dame
- Computer Score: 742.6/10.6 = 70.06 (was 69.96)
- What’s Coming Up: NCAA Tournament
- Comments: UNC should finish the year ranked #3 but they might be either the #1 or #2 seed in the NCAAs if the committee uses H2H.
Ohio State (27-2) rises one spot to No. 4 after blanking both Northwestern and Illinois.
- 9 Best Wins (640.4): at 10 Oklahoma, #11 Florida, #13 Texas A&M (2X), #14 Northwestern, #15 Illinois, at #17 South Florida, #19 Texas, at #20 Kentucky
- Other Quality Wins: #22 Michigan, #36 Virginia Tech, #39 Penn State, at #41 Notre Dame, #43 Baylor
- Losses (9.3): #1 North Carolina, at #6 Georgia
- Computer Score: 640.4/9.3 = 68.86 (was 66.53)
- What’s Coming Up: Big Ten Tournament (4/29-5/1) – Wisconsin/Nebraska winner, Michigan/Indiana winner, Illinois/Northwestern winner
- Comments: The Buckeyes went undefeated in the Big Ten and will be heavy favorites to win the Big Ten Tournament in Minneapolis.
TCU (22-3) drops one spot to No. 5 after a loss at Texas Tech.
- 9 Best Wins (666.6): #8 USC, #10 Oklahoma, #12 Oklahoma State (2X), at #13 Texas A&M, #14 Northwestern, #15 Illinois (2X +1 on road), at #17 South Florida
- Other Quality Wins: at #19 Texas, #23 Tulsa, #24 Columbia, #26 Rice, #27 SMU, #32 Stanford, #38 Dartmouth, #43 Baylor
- Losses (9.7): #1 Virginia, #9 Texas Tech, #16 California
- Computer Score: 666.6/9.7 = 68.72 (was 69.44)
- What’s Coming Up: Big 12 Tournament (4/30-5/1) – Oklahoma/Texas winner, Texas Tech/Oklahoma State winner
- Comments: TCU will most likely face Oklahoma again in the Big 12 semifinals and if they get past OU they’d see the winner of the Texas Tech/Oklahoma State match. It looks like No. 4 may be TCU’s ceiling if it wins the Big 12 because UVA and UNC have the better wins and UCLA has fewer losses.
Wake Forest (29-5) moves up one spot to No. 6 after winning the ACC Championship which included a 4-3 win over No. 1 Virginia in the finals.
- 9 Best Wins (706.2): #1 Virginia, at #3 North Carolina, #8 USC, #9 Texas Tech, #10 Oklahoma (2X + 1 on road), at #21 Florida State, #30 Georgia Tech, at #36 Virginia Tech
- Other Quality Wins: #36 Virginia Tech, #41 Notre Dame (2X), #50 South Carolina
- Losses (10.7): #1 Virginia (2X), #12 Oklahoma State, #19 Texas, #44 NC State
- Computer Score: 706.2/10.7 = 66.00 (was 59.02)
- What’s Coming Up: NCAA Tournament.
- Comments: Wake is most likely locked in as the #6 seed at the NCAAs.
- 9 Best Wins (606.8): #5 Ohio State, #11 Florida, at #13 Texas A&M, at #18 Arkansas, #20 Kentucky, #24 Columbia, #25 Mississippi State (2X), at #29 Ole Miss
- Other Quality Wins: #29 Ole Miss, #30 Georgia Tech, at #33 LSU, at #34 Vanderbilt, #40 Alabama, #42 Memphis, #47 UC Santa Barbara, at #50 South Carolina
- Losses (9.7): #2 UCLA (2X), #9 Texas Tech, #11 Florida
- Computer Score: 606.8/9.7 = 62.56 (was 65.82)
- What’s Coming Up: NCAA Tournament
- Comments: Georgia should be the #7 seed in the NCAAs however if Texas Tech stays at #8 the committee may give Texas Tech the bump due to the H2H win.
- 9 Best Wins (610.6): #4 TCU, #6 Georgia, at #10 Oklahoma, #11 Florida, #19 Texas, #23 Tulsa, #29 Ole Miss, #31 Tulane, #32 Ole Miss, at #43 Baylor
- Other Quality Wins: #43 Baylor, at #44 NC State, #46 Drake, #48 Princeton
- Losses (10.2): #3 North Carolina, #7 Wake Forest, #12 Oklahoma State, #26 Rice
- Computer Score: 610.6/10.2 = 59.86 (was 53.89)
- What’s Coming Up: Big 12 Tournament (4/29-5/1) – Oklahoma State/Baylor winner, TCU/Oklahoma winner
- Comments: The Red Raiders snagged a share of the Big 12 regular season title and the #1 seed in the conference tournament with a huge win over TCU. Tech will most likely see Oklahoma State on Saturday in the Big 12 semifinals which will be a tough task because the tournament is being held in Stillwater. If they beat Oklahoma State then they’d have to tackle TCU or Oklahoma and I’m sure both of these teams will be looking for some revenge.
Florida (18-6) makes its first appearance in the top 10 after avenging regular season losses to Texas A&M and Georgia in route to winning the SEC Championship.
- 9 Best Wins (584.9): #6 Georgia, #13 Texas A&M, #18 Arkansas, at #19 Texas, #20 Kentucky, #21 Florida State, at #25 Mississippi State, #29 Ole Miss, at #33 LSU
- Other Quality Wins: #34 Vanderbilt (2X), at #40 Alabama, at #50 South Carolina
- Losses (10.1): #1 Virginia, #5 Ohio State, #6 Georgia, #8 USC, #9 Texas Tech, #13 Texas A&M
- Computer Score: 584.9/10.1 = 57.91 (was 51.88)
- What’s Coming Up: NCAA Tournament
- Comments: Florida should be slotted as the #9 seed at the NCAAs though if USC ends up ranked #10 they’d likely get the nod over Florida due to the H2H win.
Oklahoma (14-9) stays at No. 10 after winning at Oklahoma State.
- 9 Best Wins (586.3): at #12 Oklahoma State, #15 Illinois, #16 Cal, at #17 South Florida, at #19 Texas, at #21 Florida State, at #23 Tulsa, #28 San Diego, at #40 Alabama
- Other Quality Wins: #42 Memphis, #42 Baylor
- Losses (10.6): #1 Virginia, #3 North Carolina, #4 TCU, #5 Ohio State, #7 Wake Forest (2X), #8 USC, #9 Texas Tech, #18 Arkansas
- Computer Score: 586.3/10.6 = 55.31 (was 52.31)
- What’s Coming Up: Big 12 Tournament (4/29-5/1) – Texas, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech/Oklahoma State winner
- Comments: Oklahoma opens up the Big 12 Tournament against Texas and a win over the Horns would give OU a rematch against TCU. OU lost the regular season meeting 4-3 in a match where Spencer Papa served for the win but got broken and ended up losing in a third set tiebreak. If TCU isn’t completely focused I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see OU pull off the upset.
Rank | Avg | School | Previous Rank |
1 | 77.36 | University of Virginia | 1 |
2 | 71.87 | UCLA | 2 |
3 | 70.06 | North Carolina | 3 |
4 | 68.86 | Ohio State University | 5 |
5 | 68.72 | TCU | 4 |
6 | 66 | Wake Forest University | 7 |
7 | 62.56 | University of Georgia | 6 |
8 | 59.86 | Texas Tech University | 9 |
9 | 57.91 | University of Florida | 11 |
10 | 55.31 | University of Oklahoma | 10 |
11 | 52.42 | University of Southern California | 8 |
12 | 50.61 | California | 16 |
13 | 50.35 | Northwestern University | 14 |
14 | 48.51 | Texas A&M University | 13 |
15 | 48.48 | Oklahoma State University | 12 |
16 | 45.86 | University of South Florida | 17 |
17 | 42.48 | University of Illinois | 15 |
18 | 40.35 | University of Texas | 19 |
19 | 40.16 | University of Arkansas | 18 |
20 | 37.56 | University of Kentucky | 20 |
21 | 34.86 | Florida State University | 21 |
22 | 34.45 | Mississippi State University | 25 |
23 | 34.3 | University of Tulsa | 23 |
24 | 33.19 | University of Michigan | 22 |
25 | 32.61 | Columbia University | 24 |
26 | 31.89 | Rice University | 26 |
27 | 28.3 | Stanford University | 32 |
28 | 27.81 | SMU | 27 |
29 | 27.73 | University of Mississippi | 29 |
30 | 27.3 | University of San Diego | 28 |
31 | 26.94 | Tulane University | 31 |
32 | 25.89 | Virginia Tech | 36 |
33 | 25.59 | Georgia Tech | 30 |
34 | 24.71 | Vanderbilt University | 34 |
35 | 23.83 | Penn State University | 39 |
36 | 23.36 | LSU | 33 |
37 | 21.89 | University of Notre Dame | 41 |
38 | 21.73 | University of Oregon | 35 |
39 | 21.67 | Dartmouth College | 38 |
40 | 21.57 | University of Washington | 37 |
41 | 19.92 | University of Memphis | 42 |
42 | 19.84 | Baylor University | 43 |
43 | 19.62 | University of Alabama | 40 |
44 | 18.92 | North Carolina State | 44 |
45 | 18.19 | University of South Carolina | 50 |
46 | 16.35 | UC Santa Barbara | 47 |
47 | 15.88 | Old Dominion University | 45 |
48 | 15.84 | University of Denver | 52 |
49 | 14.39 | Harvard University | 49 |
50 | 13.86 | Cornell University | 51 |
51 | 13.7 | Drake University | 46 |
52 | 13.18 | Princeton University | 48 |
53 | 13.06 | Purdue University | 59 |
54 | 12.5 | East Tennessee State University | 55 |
55 | 12.08 | Lamar University | 54 |
56 | 11.67 | Utah State University | 56 |
57 | 11.66 | University of Wisconsin | 53 |
58 | 11.5 | Indiana University-Bloomington | 64 |
59 | 10.78 | Boise State University | 60 |
60 | 10.76 | Brigham Young University | 57 |
61 | 10.46 | Pepperdine | 61 |
62 | 10.42 | Georgia State University | 58 |
63 | 10.13 | Auburn University | 65 |
64 | 9.46 | University of New Mexico | 62 |
65 | 9.07 | UNC Wilmington | 67 |
66 | 8.92 | St. John’s University | 66 |
67 | 8.92 | University of the Pacific (California) | 70 |
68 | 8.66 | Cal Poly | 63 |
69 | 8.31 | Loyola Marymount University | 69 |
70 | 7.8 | UC Davis | 74 |
71 | 7.42 | Duke University | 68 |
72 | 7.26 | University of Utah | 71 |
73 | 7.01 | University of Iowa | 72 |
74 | 6.94 | University of North Florida | 75 |
75 | 6.69 | Clemson University | 73 |
Rank | Avg | Player | School | Previous Rank |
1 | 62.1 | Mikael Torpegaard | Ohio State University | 1 |
2 | 61.26 | Roberto Cid | University of South Florida | 4 |
3 | 58.67 | Dominik Koepfer | Tulane University | 2 |
4 | 56.27 | Aleks Vukic | University of Illinois | 3 |
5 | 51 | Mackenzie McDonald | UCLA | 10 |
6 | 48.64 | Cameron Norrie | TCU | 5 |
7 | 45.88 | Christopher Eubanks | Georgia Tech | 7 |
8 | 42.29 | Ryan Shane | University of Virginia | 8 |
9 | 42.25 | Thai-Son Kwiatkowski | University of Virginia | 6 |
10 | 40.99 | Diego Hidalgo | University of Florida | 11 |
11 | 40.61 | Benjamin Lock | Florida State University | 9 |
12 | 38.59 | Tom Fawcett | Stanford University | 12 |
13 | 38.2 | Skander Mansouri | Wake Forest University | 14 |
14 | 37.55 | Joao Monteiro | Virginia Tech | 22 |
15 | 35.66 | Austin Smith | University of Georgia | 17 |
16 | 35.21 | Julian Lenz | Baylor University | 15 |
17 | 35.08 | Jared Hiltzik | University of Illinois | 13 |
18 | 34.35 | Felipe Soares | Texas Tech University | 20 |
19 | 33.83 | Arthur Rinderknech | Texas A&M University | 18 |
20 | 32.38 | Konrad Zieba | Northwestern University | 16 |
21 |
I am still in awe about how you have grown this site in a year's time…It is so great for fans to have a place to gather now, to read about and discuss what we all love – college tennis and the pro players that make their start there! Know that what you do is appreciated! I sure hope some of the college teams are helping you out – for some, you are certainly their best marketing. I really think you are growing the game, well done.
That's what college tennis is all about – one minute you're the hero the next you're the goat.
Tennessee? ??
Bobby. I was at SDSU vs UNM yesterday. Most epic college tennis match I have EVER been to. Each court was tense and tight. Players shifting from choking to heroism all over the place. Feisty and yelling. It was AWESOME
Usually they announced those the day after the team selections so it should be next Wednesday. <br /><br />Men's singles at-large cut-off will probably be 57 with there being 7 potential AQs currently ranked below 64. David Biosca (ETSU-SoCon), Tin Ostojic (Wich St-MVC), Sam Matheson (Liberty-BigS), Jack Findel-Hawkins (UNF-ASUN), Alec Adamson (UCD-BigWest), Santtu Leskinnen (UNCW-Colonial). If Adamson or Leskinnen dropped out that may open up another at-large.<br /><br />If they made the doubles selections off this week's rankings the cut-off would be 27. To be an automatic qualifier a team has to be ranked 60 or better in that last rankings. EKU's Alvaro/Van Flymen were #59 this week so if they drop to #61 or lower they are out and that'd open up another at-large. <br /><br />
It would be one thing if the guys missed the match due to injury but they made a decision to play Davis Cup and the school supported the decision so there wouldn't be any reason for the committee to discount the loss. <br /><br />Last season USC, who was ranked #1 at the time, lost to #51 Tulsa largely because it was playing without two of its starters – Eric Johnson and Nick Crystal. I'm sure there are more examples – that is the one that comes to mind though.
What do you think the cutoff for NCAA's singles and doubles will be? When will they announce the players that made the tourney?
Wake would be 3 and NCST 51 or so.
Without the WF win NC State is no where close to the NCAA tournament!<br />
If the rankings are calculated with Wake beating NC State, how would they differ for the two teams?
The Wake-NC State match looks like it could have huge consequences for both teams (keeps Wake from top 4 seed, maybe gets NC State into the tournament). <br /><br />Given the circumstances of the match, does the committee have the power and/or will to discount it to give Wake a higher seed or keep NC State out of the tournament?<br /><br />Are there other big upsets that have happened due to multiple players being unavailable for a top team?