This set of rankings used each team’s nine best wins as will next week’s unpublished rankings which will be used to make the at-large selections for the NCAA Tournament.
The following teams moved up at least 5 spots versus the last rankings – movement in ( ):
#30 Northwestern (+9) – beat Michigan and Michigan State
#52 Harvard (+6) – lost to Dartmouth but a previous win over Brown improved they jumped 10 spots
#54 Alabama (+7) – beat Missouri
#67 Old Dominion (+8) – beat Marshall plus previous Brown win improved
The following teams dropped down at least 5 spots versus the last rankings (still ranked):
#47 Fresno State (-6) – previous wins over UNLV and Arkansas were downgraded
#61 Utah (-10) – previous wins over Minnesota and Arizona were downgraded
#62 Long Beach State (-5) – previous win over Oregon was downgraded when they fell 11 spots
#70 DePaul (-7) – previous wins over Minnesota and Illinois were downgraded
There were 0 teams to drop out or enter this week which is the first time all season that has happened.
My projections were pretty good but waned past 40 due to the larger number of unranked that most teams had. Georgia’s wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M were not keyed into the ITA’s system so that’s why their point totals were off and that’s why Texas A&M was ranked ahead of Texas Tech.
Here is a list of the teams that I’d consider to be on the NCAA Bubble along with remaining matches (if any) and best wins. Everybody on this list wants to see Pepperdine win the WCC and Wichita State win the MVC. If those teams get upset they’d still get in but as an at-large instead of getting the conference’s automatic berth. The at-large cut-off is currently projected to be at 43 but it could drop to 44 if Fresno State wins the Mountain West.
You’ll notice that the bubble isn’t very big and that’s because No. 40 Princeton, No. 41 Rice, and No. 45 Georgia State have already earned their conference’s automatic berth. There is a pretty decent sized gap in points between No. 42 and No. 43 though the gap between No. 43 and No. 47 is fairly tight.
4/26 Ranking:
#39 Baylor (19.35) – vs. Kansas (Big 12 Tournament)
9 Best Wins – at Texas, Northwestern, at TCU, Rice, Oregon, Oklahoma, at Kansas State, at Hawaii, Iowa State
Outlook – VERY GOOD
Comments – A win over Kansas would removed even the shadow of a doubt but I think Baylor is all but a lock. 7 of Baylor 9 best wins are playing this weekend with only Rice and Oregon finished.
#42 Ole Miss (18.02) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – Stanford, at Arkansas, at Alabama, Purdue, Tennessee (2X), Colorado, at Tulane, sub 125
Outlook – VERY GOOD
Comments – All of Ole Miss’s best 9 wins are done this year except for Purdue. Stanford’s climb has really helped Ole Miss and should be enough to get the Rebels ticket punched next Tuesday.
#43 Notre Dame (16.86) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – Clemson, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Florida State, at Boston College, at Purdue, Indiana, 2 sub 125 wins with 1 of those on the road
Outlook – TIGHT
Comments: Only 3 of ND’s 9 best wins are still playing with Illinois the one with the best chance to advance to the B1G semifinals.
#44 Denver (16.31) – vs. Oral Roberts (Summit Tournament), S. Dakota/S. Dakota St winner
9 Best Wins – at Kansas, at Utah, at Colorado, at Kansas State, at Santa Clara, at San Jose State, Penn State, 2 sub 125s both on the road
Outlook – LOCK (AQ)
Comments – Denver is going to get an automatic berth by winning its conference tournaments because the combined record of the other 3 participants is 27-32 while Denver is 19-2
#46 Florida International (15.84) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – at Georgia State, Brown, UT Arlington, Old Dominion, Yale, at Marshall, VCU, at Central Florida, at Stetson
Outlook – TIGHT
Comments – All 9 of FIU’s best wins are done so they’ll have to hope some of those teams best wins are still playing which could raise them up which would in turn raise FIU up.
#47 Fresno State (15.56) – Mountain West Tourney – AFA/USU, SJSU/BSU, NM/UNLV
9 Best Wins – at UCLA, Arkansas, Washington State, UNLV, Santa Clara, at San Jose State, at Wisconsin, Hawaii, St. Mary’s CA
Outlook – REAL TIGHT
Comments – Fresno State probably needs to win the conference tournament to get in because beating the teams in the quarters and semis at the Mountain West won’t do enough to help its ranking.
#48 Dartmouth (14.81) – regular season over
9 Best Wins – Harvard, Brown (2X), at Boston College, Cornell, Yale, Minnesota, Houston, UMass
Outlook – LONG SHOT
Comments – Minnesota is the only one of Dartmouth’s best wins that is still playing so the Big Green really needs the Gophers to make a huge run at the Big Ten Tournament to have a realistic chance.
Regional Hosts – It’s an almost certainty that these 15 teams will host NCAA first and second round matches (assuming they applied to host) due to being ranked in the top 16: Florida, Cal, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, Miami, Pepperdine, Duke, Auburn, Michigan, South Carolina, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Virginia. The final hosting spot will come down to Georgia Tech or Texas Tech. GT is currently sitting in the No. 16 spot but TT could pass them if they win the Big 12 Tournament.
Below I’ll breakdown the Top 10 looking at the 9 best wins that were used in the rankings this week along with other quality ranked wins. I also listed the point totals gained from the best wins and losses to come up with the computer score.
- 9 Best Wins (718.3): #4 Georgia (2X + 1 on road), #5 Vanderbilt, at #11 South Carolina, #12 Auburn (2X + 1 on road), #18 Texas A&M, #19 USC, #20 LSU
- Other Top 50 Wins: #20 LSU, at #21 Mississippi State, #23 Kentucky, #29 Clemson, #32 Arkansas, at #40 Ole Miss, #42 Baylor
- Losses (9.4): at #1 Cal, at #13 Stanford
- Computer Score: 718.3/9.4 = 76.41 (was 70.78)
- What’s Coming Up: Regular season over – NCAA Tournament
- Comments: The Gators jumped up to #1 but may fall back behind Cal in the final rankings. Most likely Florida will be the #2 seed at the NCAAs due to Cal having the H2H advantage.
- 9 Best Wins (702): #2 North Carolina, #3 Florida, #6 Ohio State, #9 Pepperdine, #13 Stanford, #16 Virginia, #19 USC, at #22 Arizona State, at #25 UCLA,
- Other Top 50 Wins: #50 Washington (2X + 1 on road)
- Losses (9.3): #13 Stanford
- Computer Score: 702/9.3 = 75.48 (was 74.26)
- What’s Coming Up: Regular season over – NCAA Tournament
- Comments: Cal should still end up as the #1 seed at the NCAA Tournament either by ranking or the H2H win over Florida
North Carolina (29-2) drops one spot from No. 2 to No. 3 despite the Tar Heels winning the ACC Tournament. The drop was due to Florida picking up higher ranked wins last weekend.
- 9 Best Wins (692.5): #4 Georgia, #7 Miami (2X), at #8 Duke, at #15 Georgia Tech, #16 Virginia (2X + 1 on road), #18 Texas A&M, #20 LSU
- Other Top 50 Wins: at #27 Syracuse, #28 Wake Forest (2X), at #29 Clemson, #30 Tulsa, at #31 Virginia Tech, #35 NC State, #47 Notre Dame
- Losses (9.3): #1 California, at #10 Michigan
- Computer Score: 692.5/9.3 = 74.46 (was 71.77)
- What’s Coming Up: Regular season over – NCAA Tournament
- Comments: North Carolina should be locked in as the #3 seed at the NCAA Tournament.
- 9 Best Wins (661.4): #5 Vanderbilt, #10 Michigan, #11 South Carolina, #12 Auburn, at #15 Georgia Tech, #16 Virginia, #17 Texas Tech, #18 Texas A&M (2X + 1 on road),
- Other Top 50 Wins: at #20 LSU, at #21 Mississippi State, at #23 Kentucky, #29 Clemson, #32 Arkansas, at #40 Ole Miss
- Losses (9.4): #2 North Carolina, #3 Florida (2X), #5 Vanderbilt
- Computer Score: 661.4/9.4 = 70.36 (was 68.88)
- What’s Coming Up: Regular season over – NCAA Tournament
- Comments: Georgia will be either a #4 or #5 seed in the NCAAs – if Ohio State wins the Big Ten it’ll come down to a few tenths of a point to separate the two spots.
- 9 Best Wins (612.5): #5 Vanderbilt (2X), at #10 Michigan, #9 Pepperdine, #15 Georgia Tech, #22 Arizona State, at #34 TCU, #40 Northwestern, at #42 Baylor
- Other Top 50 Wins: #41 Fresno State
- Losses (9.3): #1 California, at #7 Miami FL
- Computer Score: 612.5/9.3 = 65.86 (was 65.25)
- What’s Coming Up: Big Ten Tournament (East Lansing 4/29-5/1) – Minnesota/Wisconsin winner, Illinois/Maryland winner, Michigan/Northwestern winner
- Comments: Ohio State is expected to win the Big Ten Tournament with the Buckeyes likely opponent in the finals being the winner of the Michigan/Northwestern. Ohio State may pass Georgia for #4 if it wins the Big Ten thought it’ll be close.
- 9 Best Wins (640.1): #4 Georgia, #8 Duke, #12 Auburn, #13 Stanford, #16 Virginia, #18 Texas A&M, #20 LSU, #21 Mississippi State (2X + 1 on road)
- Other Top 50 Wins: #23 Kentucky, at #29 Arkansas, at #39 Northwestern, at #40 Ole Miss, at #42 Baylor, #43 Denver
- Losses (9.9): #3 Florida, #4 Georgia, #6 Ohio State (2X), #11 South Carolina
- Computer Score: 640.1/9.9 = 64.66 (was 66.85)
- What’s Coming Up: Regular season over – NCAA Tournament
- Comments: Vanderbilt will almost definitely be the #6 seed at the NCAAs since Ohio State is a heavy favorite to win the Big Ten Tournament.
- 9 Best Wins (602.7): #6 Ohio State, at #12 Auburn, #14 Oklahoma State, #15 Georgia Tech (2X), #16 Virginia, #27 Syracuse (2X), at #28 Wake Forest
- Other Top 50 Wins: at #29 Clemson, #31 Virginia Tech, at #35 NC State, #37 Columbia, #47 Notre Dame,
- Losses (10): #2 North Carolina (2X), #8 Duke, #10 Michigan, #17 Texas Tech
- Computer Score: 602.7/10 = 60.27 (was 60.19)
- What’s Coming Up: Regular season over – NCAA Tournament
- Comments: Miami is a an iron clad lock to be the #7 seed at the NCAA Tournament.
- 9 Best Wins (495.4): #12 Auburn, at #13 Stanford, at #19 USC, #22 Arizona State, #24 Texas, at #25 UCLA, #35 NC State, at #57 Long Beach State, at Gonzaga/Santa Clara
- Other Top 50 Wins: None
- Losses (9.3): #1 Cal, #6 Ohio State
- Computer Score: 495.4/9.3 = 53.27 (was 52.34)
- What’s Coming Up: WCC Tournament (Claremont 4/27-4/30) – Santa Clara/BYU winner, Gonzaga,
- Comments: Pepperdine should be locked in as the #8 seed at the NCAAs unless they get stunned at the WCC Tournament.
- 9 Best Wins (560.6): #7 Miami, at #16 Virginia, #18 Texas A&M, #21 Mississippi State, #24 Texas, #27 Syracuse, at #28 Wake Forest, at #29 Clemson, at #39 Northwestern
- Other Quality Wins: #35 NC State, #41 Fresno State, #47 Notre Dame
- Losses (10.8): #2 North Carolina, #5 Vanderbilt, #10 Michigan, at #15 Georgia Tech, #16 Virginia, #31 Virginia Tech
- Computer Score: 560.6/10.8 = 51.91 (was 53.07)
- What’s Coming Up: Regular season over – NCAA Tournament
- Comments: Duke is most likely going to be the #9 seed at the NCAA Tournament.
Auburn (22-7) moves up two spots to No. 10 after beating South Carolina at the SEC Tournament before falling to Florida in the semifinals.
- 9 Best Wins (540.4): #11 South Carolina (2X), #14 Oklahoma State, #18 Texas A&M, #20 LSU, #21 Mississippi State, at #23 Kentucky, #40 Ole Miss, at #65 Missouri
- Other Quality Wins: #61 Alabama
- Losses (10.5): #3 Florida (2X), #4 Georgia, #5 Vanderbilt, #7 Miami, #9 Pepperdine, #32 Arkansas
- Computer Score: 540.4/10.5 = 51.47 (was 46.51)
- What’s Coming Up: Regular season over – NCAA Tournament
- Comments: Auburn will end up as the #11 seed in the NCAAs if Michigan beat Northwestern in the Big Ten semifinals.
| Rank | Avg | School | Previous Rank |
| 1 | 76.41 | University of Florida | 3 |
| 2 | 75.48 | California | 1 |
| 3 | 74.46 | North Carolina | 2 |
| 4 | 67.6 | University of Georgia | 4 |
| 5 | 65.86 | Ohio State University | 6 |
| 6 | 65.32 | Vanderbilt University | 5 |
| 7 | 60.27 | University of Miami (Florida) | 7 |
| 8 | 53.27 | Pepperdine | 9 |
| 9 | 51.91 | Duke University | 8 |
| 10 | 51.47 | Auburn University | 12 |
| 11 | 48.55 | University of Michigan | 10 |
| 12 | 48.13 | Stanford | 13 |
| 13 | 47.89 | University of South Carolina | 11 |
| 14 | 47.23 | University of Virginia | 16 |
| 15 | 46.67 | Oklahoma State University | 14 |
| 16 | 41.65 | Georgia Tech | 15 |
| 17 | 39.34 | LSU | 20 |
| 18 | 38.97 | Texas A&M University | 18 |
| 19 | 38.75 | Texas Tech University | 17 |
| 20 | 36.78 | University of Southern California | 19 |
| 21 | 36.74 | Mississippi State University | 21 |
| 22 | 34.43 | Arizona State University | 22 |
| 23 | 33.65 | University of Kentucky | 23 |
| 24 | 31.34 | University of Texas at Austin | 24 |
| 25 | 29.04 | UCLA | 25 |
| 26 | 28.85 | Wake Forest University | 28 |
| 27 | 28.84 | Syracuse University | 27 |
| 28 | 27.13 | Wichita State University | 26 |
| 29 | 26.87 | University of Tulsa | 30 |
| 30 | 24.06 | Northwestern University | 39 |
| 31 | 24.03 | Clemson University | 29 |
| 32 | 22.16 | University of Arkansas | 32 |
| 33 | 22.05 | University of Kansas | 33 |
| 34 | 21.59 | Virginia Tech | 31 |
| 35 | 21.54 | TCU | 34 |
| 36 | 21.27 | North Carolina State | 35 |
| 37 | 20.37 | Columbia University | 37 |
| 38 | 19.85 | College of William and Mary | 36 |
| 39 | 19.35 | Baylor University | 42 |
| 40 | 19.1 | Princeton University | 38 |
| 41 | 18.34 | Rice University | 45 |
| 42 | 18.02 | University of Mississippi | 40 |
| 43 | 16.86 | University of Notre Dame | 47 |
| 44 | 16.31 | University of Denver | 43 |
| 45 | 16.19 | Georgia State University | 46 |
| 46 | 15.84 | Florida International University (FIU) | 44 |
| 47 | 15.56 | Fresno State | 41 |
| 48 | 14.81 | Dartmouth College | 49 |
| 49 | 13.52 | University of Pennsylvania | 48 |
| 50 | 12.89 | University of Washington | 50 |
| 51 | 12.73 | University of Illinois | 54 |
| 52 | 12.52 | Harvard University | 58 |
| 53 | 12.4 | University of South Florida | 56 |
| 54 | 12.22 | University of Alabama | 61 |
| 55 | 12.18 | University of South Alabama | 53 |
| 56 | 12.05 | University of New Mexico | 52 |
| 57 | 11.73 | Florida State University | 60 |
| 58 | 11.7 | University of Oregon | 55 |
| 59 | 11.66 | Cornell University | 59 |
| 60 | 11.46 | Brown University | 62 |
| 61 | 11.4 | University of Utah | 51 |
| 62 | 11.21 | Long Beach State University | 57 |
| 63 | 9.51 | Univ. of Missouri, Columbia | 65 |
| 64 | 9.32 | University of Texas at Arlington | 64 |
| 65 | 9.01 | Washington State University | 69 |
| 66 | 8.71 | Boston College | 66 |
| 67 | 8.36 | Old Dominion University | 75 |
| 68 | 8.32 | University of North Texas | 71 |
| 69 | 8.22 | University of Arizona | 73 |
| 70 | 8.1 | DePaul University | 63 |
| 71 | 7.79 | Yale University | 67 |
| 72 | 7.67 | UNLV | 68 |
| 73 | 7.63 | Purdue University | 70 |
| 74 | 7.26 | UC Santa Barbara | 74 |
| 75 | 6.72 | Winthrop University | 72 |
| Rank | Avg | Player | School | Previous Rank |
| 1 | 63.64 | Hayley Carter | North Carolina | 1 |
| 2 | 57.44 | Danielle Collins | University of Virginia | 2 |
| 3 | 56.57 | Brooke Austin | University of Florida | 7 |
| 4 | 54.84 | Ellen Perez | University of Georgia | 3 |
| 5 | 54.55 | Francesca Di Lorenzo | Ohio State University | 4 |
| 6 | 53.72 | Luisa Stefani | Pepperdine | 5 |
| 7 | 51.29 | Maegan Manasse | California | 11 |
| 8 | 50.21 | Stephanie Wagner | University of Miami (Florida) | 6 |
| 9 | 49.53 | Sinead Lohan | University of Miami (Florida) | 8 |
| 10 | 45.81 | Breaunna Addison | University of Texas at Austin | 10 |
| 11 | 44.05 | Belinda Woolcock | University of Florida | 9 |
| 12 | 43.71 | Frances Altick | Vanderbilt University | 13 |
| 13 | 42.74 | Julia Elbaba | University of Virginia | 16 |
| 14 | 42.53 | Jasmine Lee | Mississippi State University | 14 |
| 15 | 39.14 | Klara Fabikova | California | 12 |
| 16 | 38.64 | Ronit Yurovsky | University of Michigan | 15 |
| 17 | 33.95 | Catherine Harrison | UCLA | 17 |
| 18 | 29.51 | Brienne Minor | University of Michigan | 18 |
| 19 | 29.42 | Sydney Campbell | Vanderbilt University | 19 |
| 20 | 25.31 | Andie Dikosavljevic | Auburn University | 20 |
| 21 | 24.95 | Erin Routliffe | University of Alabama | 27 |
| 22 | 24.73 | Yuliya Lysa | University of Arkansas | 21 |
| 23 | 24.21 | Joana Vale Costa | LSU | 22 |
| 24 | 23.89 | Joana Eidukonyte | Clemson University | 23 |
| 25 | 22.93 | Carol Zhao | Stanford | 33 |
| 26 | 22.17 | Giuliana Olmos | University of Southern California | 24 |
| 27 | 21.97 | Saska Gavrilovska | Texas A&M University | 25 |
| 28 | 21.57 | Caroline Brinson |
6 Comments |
Yes if TT wins the Big 12 they would finish in top 16 – probably 14 or 15. If they don't win it they would not break the top 16.
Can Texas Tech play their way back into hosting by winning Big XIIs?
I guess anything is possible but in my opinion if GT is ranked in the top 16 they'll host. Cal and Stanford will host in the Bay Area and there aren't many 2 or 3 seeds on the west coast. A Pac-12 school would get one spot by they wouldn't put another Pac-12 as a 3 seed. <br /><br />
If they played Kansas in the semis and Texas Tech in the finals they'd be close but I think Auburn would still edge them out. <br /><br />Neither of the opponents they'll face in the quarters will help and even Baylor isn't ranked high enough to move the needle any if they played in the semis. Texas Tech is really the only team that gives them a bump but I don't think it'll quite be enough.
If Okie State wins the Big 12 do they pass Auburn?
Don't think they will have 2 hosts in the ATL area with not many 2s and 3s nearby. GT gets screwed and sent to Texas as a 1 seed while a lower seed (Baylor, TCU, Rice) hosts.