It’s hard to believe but the first conference tournament gets started in three weeks with the bulk then coming the following two weeks after that. There will be 30 conference tournaments this year with each winner earning an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. The only conference that does not have a tournament is the Ivy League which awards its automatic berth to the regular season champion. The only school that won’t be able to defend its title will be Coastal Carolina who won the Big South last year but is now in the Sun Belt. There will be 33 at-large bids for the NCAA Tournament with the ranking cutoff expected to be 41 or 42.
Below is a look at the conference races with the contenders listed for all of my projected 1-bid leagues. There are a few leagues that have teams right around the projected cutoff but if that team were to lose again it’d be to an unranked team and that would most likely knock them out. For the Power 5, AAC, CUSA, and Ivy League I’ll list who I think is probably in along with teams that will be on the bubble. Teams in the bigger conferences have enough matches left against ranked teams to make a move while teams in the one-bid leagues will not. So for those teams from the mid-major to lower-major conferences that are already ranked below 50 it’ll be tough for them to make up the ground needed to get higher than 42.
Projected multiple-bid leagues (Tournament Location/Host) – (8)
American Athletic Conference (Lake Nona/UCF) – I think at least four teams will get in from the AAC but the reason I don’t have anyone down as a lock is because they all have tough schedules remaining so a 4-match losing streak could sink anyone. SMU will control its destiny because it still has four regular season matches left against top 40 teams. UCF’s win over Florida State put it in much better shape and if can pick up one or two more quality wins it’ll be in plus it’s hosting the tournament. Tulsa needs help and will need to schedule some doubleheaders to get its record above .500 to even be considered.
- Probably In – South Florida, Memphis, Tulane
- Bubble – SMU, Central Florida (host), Tulsa
Atlantic Coast Conference (Rome, Ga) – Georgia Tech will be the local favorite after the tournament was moved from Cary to Rome but Wake Forest, Virginia, and North Carolina will be the ones with the best chance to win. There are several teams that could potentially play their ways into the NCAA with strong finishes but any more losses would close the door.
- Locks: Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State
- Probably In: Louisville
- Bubble: Notre Dame
- Need To Kick It In: NC State, Duke, Virginia Tech
Big Ten Conference (West Lafayette, IN/Purdue) – The Big Ten could get as few as 5 teams in or they could get as many 7 or 8 depending on how these next four weeks play out. Everyone except Michigan State and Nebraska still has a chance to play its way in though several could play its way out of the tournament with a poor finish – see Wisconsin last year.
- Locks: Ohio State, Michigan, Northwestern, Illinois
- Probably In: Wisconsin, Minnesota
- Bubble: Indiana
- Need To Kick It In: Purdue, Iowa, Penn State
Big 12 Conference (Norman, OK/Oklahoma) – Everyone will be in except Texas Tech although if they can win two conference matches I think they could slide in like Baylor did last year.
- Locks: Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma (host), Oklahoma State, TCU
- Need To Kick It In: Texas Tech
Conference USA (Murfreesboro, TN/Middle Tennessee State) – If the bids were handed out today this would potentially be a two-bid league but after Old Dominion’s loss to Florida Atlantic I think the only team that is a safe bet is Rice. Rice will be the favorite to win the conference tournament but there’s a cluster of teams that is capable of giving Rice issues on a neutral site.
- Probably In: Rice
- Bubble: Old Dominion
- On The Rise (Need To Win Tournament): Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State (host), Southern Miss
The Ivy League – The only conference without a tournament has two teams firmly in the field with Yale and Penn probably the only two others that could potentially play their way in.
- Locks: Cornell, Columbia
- Bubble: Yale, Penn
Pac-12 Conference (Ojai, Ca) – I think right now it’s pretty clear-cut on who is going to make it out of the Pac-12. The only team that isn’t a lock but is close is Washington with the Huskies needing to beat Utah, Arizona, and maybe at least one more team to lock up a bid.
- Locks: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon
- Probably In: Washington
- Bubble: None
Southeastern Conference (Knoxville, TN/Tennessee) – This conference has more teams on the bubble than anyone else with Ole Miss in the best shape after pulling off the upset at Mississippi State. I think Arkansas has the second best chance to get off the bubble while Tennessee and Auburn are going to need to upset someone to have a chance.
- Locks: Texas A&M, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Kentucky
- Bubble: Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn
- Need To Kick It In: Vanderbilt, Alabama
Projected 1-bid leagues (Tournament Location/Host) – (23)
Atlantic Sun Conference (Naples/FGCU)
- Contenders – North Florida, Stetson, Florida Gulf Coast (host)
Atlantic 10 Conference (Lake Nona, FL)
- Contenders – Davidson, Dayton, George Washington, Richmond, VCU
Big East Conference (Cayce, SC)
- Contenders: Butler, DePaul, Marquette, St. John’s
Big Sky Conference (Phoenix)
- Contenders: Northern Arizona, Idaho, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State
Big South Conference (Winston-Salem)
- Contenders: Presbyterian, Campbell, Gardner-Webb, Longwood, Liberty
Big West Conference (Indian Wells)
- Contenders: Cal Poly, UC Santa Barbara, UC Davis
Colonial Athletic Association (Elon, NC)
- Contenders: Elon (host), College of Charleston, William & Mary, UNC Wilmington, James Madison
Horizon League (Ann Arbor)
- Contenders: Valparaiso (heavy favorite),
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (West Windsor, NJ)
- Contenders: Marist, Monmouth, Quinnipiac
Mid-American Conference (Kalamazoo/WMU)
- Contenders: Western Michigan (host), Buffalo, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ball State
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (Norfolk/Norfolk State)
- Contenders: South Carolina State (wins it every year), Florida A&M, North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley Conference (Normal, IL/Illinois State)
- Contenders: Wichita State, Drake, Southern Illinois, Illinois State (host)
Mountain West Conference (Boise, ID/Boise State)
- Contenders: Utah State, UNLV, Fresno State, New Mexico
Northeast Conference (West Windsor, NJ)
- Contenders: Bryant, St. Francis (PA), Wagner
Ohio Valley Conference (Nashville/Belmont/Tennessee State)
- Contenders: Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont (host), Jacksonville State
Patriot League (Annapolis, MD/Navy)
- Contenders: Navy (host), Army
Southern Conference (Greenville, SC/Furman)
- Contenders: East Tennessee State (favorite), Mercer, Furman (host), UNC Greensboro, Wofford
Southland Conference (Beaumont, TX/Lamar)
- Contenders: Lamar (host), Texas A&M Corpus Christi, New Orleans (Abilene Christian ineligible due to transition from D2 to D1)
Southwestern Athletic Conference (New Orleans)
- Contenders: Alabama State, Alcorn State, Jackson State
The Summit League (Indianapolis/IUPUI)
- Denver (favorite), Nebraska-Omaha, Oral Roberts, IUPUI (host)
Sun Belt Conference (New Orleans)
- Contenders (everyone): South Alabama, Georgia State, UT Arlington, Troy, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern
West Coast Conference (Claremont, CA)
- Contenders: Pepperdine, BYU, San Diego, Portland, Santa Clara, Pacific
Western Athletic Conference (Las Cruces, NM/New Mexico State
- Contenders: New Mexico State (host-favorite), UMKC (Grand Canyon ineligible due to transition from D2 to D1)
If viewing on mobile turn phone sideways to properly see the chart
| M-Conference | Dates | Location | Host School | 2016 Champion |
| AAC | 4/20 – 4/23 | Lake Nona, FL | Central Florida | South Florida |
| ACC | 4/26 – 4/30 | Rome, Georgia | Wake Forest | |
| Atlantic Sun | 4/21 – 4/23 | Naples, FL | Florida Gulf Coast | North Florida |
| Atlantic 10 | 4/27 – 4/30 | Lake Nona, FL | George Washington | |
| Big East | 4/27 – 4/30 | Cayne, SC | St. John’s | |
| Big Sky | 4/27 – 4/30 | Phoenix | Weber State | |
| Big South | 4/19 – 4/22 | Winston-Salem | Coastal Carolina | |
| Big Ten | 4/27 – 4/30 | West Lafayette | Purdue | Ohio State |
| Big 12 | 4/27 – 4/30 | Norman | Oklahoma | TCU |
| Big West | 4/27 – 4/30 | Indian Wells | UC Santa Barbara | |
| Colonial | 4/21 – 4/23 | Elon, NC | Elon | College of Charleston |
| Conference USA | 4/21 – 4/23 | Murfreesboro | Middle Tenn State | Rice |
| Horizon | 4/28 – 4/30 | Ann Arbor, MI | Detroit | Valparaiso |
| MAAC | 4/29 – 4/30 | W. Windsor, NJ | Monmouth | |
| Mid-American | 4/28 – 4/29 | Kalamazoo | Western Michigan | Western Michigan |
| MEAC | 4/20 – 4/22 | Norfolk | Norfolk State | South Carolina State |
| Missouri Valley | 4/28 – 4/30 | Normal, IL | Illinois State | Wichita State |
| Mountain West | 4/28 – 4/30 | Boise, ID | Boise State | UNLV |
| Northeast | 4/21 – 4/23 | W. Windsor, NJ | Bryant | |
| Ohio Valley | 4/21 – 4/23 | Nashville, TN | Belmont/Tenn State | Tennessee Tech |
| Pac-12 | 4/26 – 4/30 | Ojai, CA | UCLA | |
| Patriot | 4/20 – 4/23 | Annapolis, MD | Navy | Army |
| SEC | 4/26 – 4/30 | Knoxville | Tennessee | Florida |
| Southern | 4/21 – 4/23 | Greenville, SC | Furman | East Tennessee St |
| Southland | 4/28 – 4/30 | Beaumont, TX | Lamar | Lamar |
| SWAC | 4/14 – 4/16 | New Orleans | Jackson State | |
| Summit | 4/28 – 4/29 | Indianapolis, IN | IUPUI | Denver |
| Sun Belt | 4/20 – 4/23 | New Orleans | UT Arlington | |
| WCC | 4/27 – 4/29 | Claremont, CA | San Diego | |
| WAC | 4/28 – 4/30 | Las Cruces, NM | New Mexico State | New Mexico State |
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