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The 2017 NCAA Division I Men’s and Women’s Tournament gets underway on Friday morning at 10 a.m. eastern and I’ve got all the numbers and interesting facts that you’ll need to get you through the weekend. Past history tells us that it’s an all but certain guarantee that at least one men’s and one women’s seed will get knocked out this weekend. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1999 (18 years) there have been 47 men’s seeds that have been knocked out early which is an average of 2.6 per year. The women’s side hasn’t been quite as bad with 34 knocked out early which equates to 1.8 per year. There were four men’s seeds knocked out early last year which was the most since the bloodbath of 2004 which saw seven get kicked to the curb. 

The men’s #14 seed has failed to advance to the Sweet 16 a staggering 7 times since 1999 while the #11, #12, and #13 seeds have went home early 6 times. The #1, #2, #4, and #7 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 every year so if you’re Wake Forest, Virginia, USC, and Baylor you have to be feeling even more confident than you probably already were. The women’s seed most likely to go home early is the #13 seed which has fallen seven times while the #16 seed has gone home early 5 times. The women’s #2, #3, #4, and #5 seeds have never lost early and the #1 and #6 seeds have only lost once. Florida was the #1 seed that was stunned by Miami FL in the second round of the 2004 tournament. 

There has never been a #4 regional seed that’s made it through to the Sweet 16 and in fact the only time a #1 has ever lost to a #4 was in 2013 when Denver upset Florida 4-3. It doesn’t happen too often but there have been eight #3 regional seeds that have come through with five of those on the men’s side and three on the women’s side. Below is your yearly breakdown: 

Number of Top 16 men’s seeds to lose before the Round of 16 broken down by year:
2016 (4) – Mississippi State def. #15 Illinois 4-0; Texas def. #12 Texas A&M 4-3; Stanford def. #14 Northwestern 4-3; SMU def. #8 Texas Tech 4-2
2015 (2) – Columbia def. #14 Ole Miss 4-1; South Florida def. #15 Virginia Tech 4-0
2014 (2) – Cal def. #8 Texas A&M 4-3, Tennessee def. #11 Duke 4-2
2013 (2) – Memphis def. #6 Ole Miss 4-2, Denver upset #15 Florida 4-3 (1st Round)
2012 (2) – Baylor def. #9 Mississippi State 4-3, Tulsa def. #10 Oklahoma 4-1
2011 (2) – #36 Tulsa def. #13 Texas 4-3, Illinois def. #16 North Carolina 4-1*
2010 (2) – Wisconsin def. #13 Illinois 4-1, Oklahoma def. #14 Texas Tech 4-2**
2009 (3) – Wake Forest def. #11 Kentucky 4-2, Boise St def. #14 Alabama 4-3, Miami def. #10 Florida 4-3
2008 (1) – Oklahoma State def. #11 Tulsa 4-3***
2007 (3) – Florida def. #16 Florida State 4-3, Alabama def. #14 Duke 4-3, NC State def. #6 UNC 4-0
2006 (3) – Notre Dame def. #16 Texas A&M 4-2, Washington def. #12 VCU 4-0, Florida def. #15 Oklahoma State 4-0
2005 (2) – Florida State def. #12 Kentucky 4-2, South Carolina def. #13 Oklahoma State 4-3
2004 (7) – Vanderbilt def. #8 Ole Miss 4-1, Texas A&M def. #13 VCU 4-0, TCU def. #12 Kentucky 4-2, Clemson def. #5 Duke 4-3, Arkansas def. #15 Tennessee 4-1, Rice def. #14 LSU 4-0, Ohio State def. #11 North Carolina 4-3
2003 (2) – Ohio State def. #13 Kentucky 4-3, Oklahoma State def. #11 Minnesota 4-2
2002 (2) – Washington def. #5 Stanford 4-3, Duke def. #10 California 4-3****
2001 (2) – Mississippi State def. #10 Illinois 4-2, USC def. #12 Ole Miss 4-3
2000 (3) – San Diego State def. #3 Pepperdine 4-2, VCU def. #14 Ole Miss 4-3, USC def. #13 Fresno State 4-1
1999 (3) – Virginia Tech def. #16 Alabama 4-3, Fresno State def. #12 USC 4-1, Mississippi State def. #11 Tennessee 4-3

* 2011 – Illinois was actually ranked #17 and UNC was ranked #18.
** 2010 – Oklahoma hosted regional even though Texas Tech was seeded
*** 2008 – Tulsa hosted NCAAs that year – didn’t help attendance when they lost early
**** 2002 – Duke hosted regional even though Cal was seeded

No. 3 seeds to advance to Round of 16: Tulsa (2011), South Carolina (2005), Washington (2002), San Diego State (2000), Virginia Tech (1999)

No. 4 seeds to advance to Round of 16: None

 

Number of Top 16 women’s seeds to lose before the Round of 16 broken down by year:
2016 (2) – Texas def. #9 Duke 4-2; Georgia Tech def. #13 South Carolina 4-0
2015 (1) – Clemson def. #13 Alabama 4-2
2014 (1) – Notre Dame def. #15 Northwestern 4-3
2013 (1) – Duke def. #16 Texas Tech 4-3
2012 (2) – Rice def. #16 Ole Miss 4-2; Georgia Tech def. #8 Alabama 4-3
2011 (2) – Vanderbilt def. #13 Tennessee 4-3; SMU def. #12 Florida State 4-3*
2010 (1) – Ole Miss def. #14 Georgia Tech 4-0
2009 (2) – Washington def. #7 USC 4-3; South Carolina def. #10 Tennessee 4-3
2008 (2) – Arkansas def. #15 North Carolina 4-3; Texas def. #14 Florida State 5-2
2007 (0) –
2006 (3) – UCLA def. #13 Pepperdine 4-0; Kentucky def. #15 Clemson 4-0; Fresno State def. #10 California 4-3
2005 (2) – California def. #9 Miami FL 4-3; Harvard def. #16 Tennessee**
2004 (4) – Miami FL def. #1 Florida 4-3; Tennessee def. #14 North Carolina 4-3; Fresno State def. #11 California 4-3; Arizona State def. #13 Texas 4-0***
2003 (2) – Kansas State def. #12 VCU 4-2; Harvard def. #16 Arizona 4-3****
2002 (1) – VCU def. #12 South Carolina 4-1
2001 (2) – Wake Forest def. #16 Oklahoma State 4-3; UCLA def. #11 Fresno State 4-3
2000 (2) – LSU def. #6 Pepperdine 5-4; Tennessee def. #13 William & Mary 5-3
1999 (4) – Miami FL def. #7 Texas; Iowa def. #12 Notre Dame; Fresno State def. #13 William & Mary; South Alabama def. #8 UCLA

* 2011 – Texas A&M hosted even though Florida State was seeded – SMU beat both
** 2005 – Harvard hosted even though Tennessee was seeded
*** 2004 – Arizona State was #3 seed in the regional and def. LSU in the first round
**** 2003 – Harvard hosted even though Arizona was seeded; Kansas State was #3 seed and def. Northwestern in the first round.

No. 3 seeds to advance to Round of 16: SMU (2011); Arizona State (2004), Kansas State (2003)

No. 4 seeds to advance to Round of 16: None

 

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Before I get to the rest of the numbers I also wanted to mention that UCLA took a bit hit today when it was announced that Gage Brymer recently had season-ending surgery, due to a blood clot I believe, and thus his collegiate career is over. UCLA will have to move everyone up a spot in the lineup which is definitely going to hurt its chances as the tournament progresses. Best of luck to Gage and hopefully he’ll have a speedy recovery.

Typically the wider the gap in ranking the more lopsided the score and we’ve got some big gaps in the 1 vs. 4 matchups. TCU is ranked 192 spots higher than Jackson State on the men’s side while Georgia is 293 spots higher than South Carolina State on the women’s side. The narrowest margin between 1 and 4 seeds is Baylor and Lamar on the men’s side and a tie between Cal/San Jose State and North Carolina/Furman on the women’s side. 

In the 2 vs. 3 matches you’ve got Florida State and Arkansas only separated by three spots in the May 4th ITA rankings and then you’ve got Michigan and Valparaiso on the other end of the spectrum with 67 spots separating the two. On the women’s side Notre Dame and Kansas were just two spots apart while a couple of matches were 43 apart. 

I have also have a chart that shows the variance in UTR Power 6s for each matchup though you have to be a subscriber to view that one. I will tell you that the biggest variance in the 1 vs. 4 matches is 19 with TCU an 86 and Jackson State a 67 and the Georgia women a 68 and the South Carolina State women a 49. There are two matches on the men’s side where the #3 seed has a higher UTR Power 6 than the #2 seed. 

 

 
Biggest ITA Ranking Variance in Men’s 1 vs. 4   Biggest ITA Ranking Variance in Women’s 1 vs. 4
192 – TCU/Jackson State 293 – Georgia/South Carolina State
165 – Georgia/Florida A&M 160 – Georgia Tech/Alabama State
148 – Oklahoma/Bryant 155 – Oklahoma State/UMKC
   
Smallest ITA Ranking Variance in Men’s 1 vs. 4 Smallest ITA Ranking Variance in Women’s 1 vs. 4
80 – Baylor/Lamar 67 – Cal/San Jose State
82 – Texas A&M/Buffalo 67 – North Carolina/Furman
88 – USC/Denver 71 – Auburn/DePaul
   
Biggest ITA Ranking Variance in Men’s 2 vs. 3 Biggest ITA Ranking Variance in Women’s 2 vs. 3
67 – Michigan/Valparaiso 43 – Tennessee/Winthrop
53 – South Carolina/East Tennessee State 43 – Texas A&M/Louisiana Monroe
30 – Illinois/Drake 41 – Miami FL/South Florida
   
Smallest ITA Ranking Variance in Men’s 2 vs. 3 Smallest ITA Ranking Variance in Women’s 2 vs. 3
3 – Florida State/Arkansas 2 – Notre Dame/Kansas
8 – Kentucky/Georgia State 5 – NC State/Oregon
10 – Ole Miss/UCSB & Oregon/Memphis 7 – Washington/Clemson

  

It’s interesting to see the correlation between national seed and doubles winning percentage because you have each of the top four national seeds in the top four of the doubles rankings. Props to Valpo for coming in 5th! When looking at the five worst team in doubles it’s interesting to see a pair of #2 seeds in there with both Illinois and Kentucky down in the 40s.  

Men’s Doubles Winning % – Top 5 

Natl Seed Reg Seed Team W L PCT
3 1 Ohio State 29 3 90.6%
4 1 USC 27 3 90.0%
1 1 Wake Forest 25 4 86.2%
2 1 Virginia 25 4 86.2%
  3 Valparaiso 22 4 84.6%

 

Men’s Doubles Winning % – Bottom 5 

Natl Seed Reg Seed Team W L PCT
  4 Jackson State 7 21 25.0%
  3 Washington 9 14 39.1%
  2 Illinois 11 16 40.7%
  2 Kentucky 11 15 42.3%
  4 UNC Wilmington 9 12 42.9%

  

The charts below shows the five best players, in terms of winning percentage, at each spot in the approved master lineups. Most of the spots are occupied by individuals from the Power 5 Conferences however in just about every group you’ve got someone that you might not expect. 

 
 
Pos. ITA Player School UTR W L %
1 2 Mikael Torpegaard Ohio State 14.92 26 1 0.96
1 3 Aleks Vukic Illinois 14.99 21 1 0.95
1   Jeffrey Schorsch Valparaiso 14.04 21 1 0.95
1 1 Cameron Norrie TCU 15.13 18 1 0.95
1 7 Christopher Eubanks Georgia Tech 14.92 17 2 0.89
 
2 20 Alex Rybakov TCU 14.77 18 1 0.95
2 16 William Blumberg North Carolina 14.74 21 2 0.91
2   Felipe Fonseca Idaho 13.03 19 2 0.90
2 48 Jordi Arconada Texas A&M 14.31 18 2 0.90
2 50 Max Tchoutakian Baylor 14.31 15 2 0.88
 
3 9 Hugo Di Feo Ohio State 14.65 23 2 0.92
3   Danny Kerznerman UCF 13.96 16 2 0.89
3   Carl Söderlund Virginia 14.71 13 2 0.87
3 63 Johannes Schretter Baylor 14.24 19 3 0.86
3   Guillermo Nicolas Tennessee Tech 12.85 11 2 0.85
 
4   Logan Staggs UCLA 14.03 17 2 0.89
4   Jack Jaede USC 14.25 19 3 0.86
4   Valentine Vacherot Texas A&M 14.03 19 3 0.86
4   Fabian Fallert Ole Miss 13.98 18 3 0.86
4   Ben Kelley Presbyterian 13.00 20 4 0.83
 
5   Pietro Rimondini Cornell 13.47 14 2 0.88
5   Tristan Meraut Oklahoma State 13.84 13 2 0.87
5   TJ Pura Duke 14.19 19 3 0.86
5   Kyle Dunn Valparaiso 12.82 19 3 0.86
5 109 J.C. Aragone Virginia 14.59 21 4 0.84
 
6   Trevor Johnson TCU 13.98 5 0 1.00
6 102 Henrik Wiersholm Virginia 14.56 21 1 0.95
6   Riley Smith USC 13.76 18 2 0.90
6   Ethan Nittolo Buffalo 13.20 17 2 0.89
6   Chi-Shan Jao Tulane 14.02 13 2 0.87

 

 
Pos. ITA Player School UTR W L %
1 2 Hayley Carter North Carolina 11.92 25 0 1.00
1 1 Francesca Di Lorenzo Ohio State 12.23 23 1 0.96
1   Marianna Petrei Idaho 11.03 19 1 0.95
1   Lauren Proctor Winthrop 10.50 22 2 0.92
1   Kate Fahey Michigan 11.73 19 2 0.90
 
2 20 Elena Christofi Georgia 11.69 16 2 0.89
2 19 Ashley lahey Pepperdine 11.55 13 2 0.87
2   Tiffany Mylonas Louisiana-Monroe 10.47 12 2 0.86
2 40 Estela PerezSomarriba Miami FL 11.63 18 3 0.86
2   Maureen Slattery Denver 10.63 17 3 0.85
 
3 35 Jessie Aney North Carolina 11.50 24 2 0.92
3 55 Chalena Scholl Duke 11.13 20 2 0.91
3 111 Leolia Jeanjean Arkansas 11.37 17 2 0.89
3 52 Kennedy Shaffer Georgia 11.18 13 2 0.87
3   Ana Yrazusta Massachusetts 10.14 16 3 0.84
 
4   Petra Horakova Louisiana-Monroe 10.89 16 0 1.00
4 91 Miho Kowase Ohio State 11.66 23 0 1.00
4 99 Kaitlyn McCarthy Duke 11.24 22 1 0.96
4   Sabrina Federici Texas Tech 11.19 15 1 0.94
4   Maria Tavares Idaho 9.63 18 2 0.90
 
5   Katie Stresnakova Oklahoma State 11.08 12 0 1.00
5 112 Sandy Niehaus Ohio State 11.03 21 1 0.95
5   Emily Arbuthnott Stanford 11.40 18 1 0.95
5   Nami Otsuka Georgia Tech 10.92 23 2 0.92
5   Maria Maldonado Texas A&M Corpus 9.11 18 3 0.86
 
6 71 Emma Higuchi Stanford 11.66 19 0 1.00
6   Marina Vicens Miquel Texas A&M Corpus 9.39 19 1 0.95
6   Ferny Angeles Paz Ohio State 11.32 23 2 0.92
6   Hadley Berg South Carolina 11.16 19 2 0.90
6 87 Fernanda Contreras Vanderbilt 11.10 15 2 0.88

 

I have the full schedule for the weekend on my NCAA event page and I’ll do my best to post box scores all weekend long. 

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View the men’s singles tables at this link and the women’s tables at this link. You can filter or sort them whichever way you want – enjoy!

 

ITA Ranking Variance

 

ITA Rank #1 Seed ITA Rank #4 Seed Var.   ITA Rank #1 Seed ITA Rank #4 Seed Var.
5 Georgia 298 S Carolina St 293   6 TCU 198 Jackson State 192
8 Georgia Tech 168 Alabama State 160 12 Georgia 165 Florida A&M 153
9 Oklahoma St 164 UMKC 155 14 Oklahoma 148 Bryant 134
15 Duke 163 Boston U 148 5 UCLA 138 Army 133
10 Michigan 155 Youngstown St 145 11 Texas 143 Presbyterian 132
2 Ohio State 135 Buffalo 133 2 Virginia 132 Monmouth 130
6 Stanford 138 Idaho 132 10 Oklahoma St 114 UMKC 104
7 Texas Tech 124 Quinnipiac 117 16 Stanford 119 Idaho 103
12 Pepperdine 125 LIU Brooklyn 113 1 Wake Forest 103 UNC Wilmington 102
1 Florida 101 Massachusetts 100 9 North Carolina 102 VCU 93
14 South Carolina 110 North Florida 96 15 Florida 108 FGCU 93
3 Vanderbilt 95 SIU Edwardsville 92 8 California 100 Tennessee Tech 92
16 Baylor 108 Texas A&M CC 92 3 Ohio State 94 Butler 91
11 Auburn 82 DePaul 71 4 USC 92 Denver 88
4 North Carolina 71 Furman 67 13 Texas A&M 95 Buffalo 82
13 California 80 San Jose State 67 7 Baylor 87 Lamar 80
Women’s Draw Men’s Draw
ITA Rank #2 Seed ITA Rank #3 Seed Var. ITA Rank #2 Seed ITA Rank #3 Seed Var.
24 Tennessee 67 Winthrop 43 17 Michigan 84 Valparaiso 67
20 Texas A&M 63 La Monroe 43 20 South Carolina 73 ETSU 53
28 Miami FL 69 South Florida 41 25 Illinois 55 Drake 30
19 Arkansas 53 Wichita State 34 21 Northwestern 45 Utah State 24
17 Kentucky 45 Dartmouth 28 29 Tulane 49 Washington 20
29 Ole Miss 55 William & Mary 26 18 Mississippi St 38 SMU 20
23 UCLA 47 UCSB 24 19 Georgia Tech 39 Minnesota 20
18 Mississippi St 39 Northwestern 21 23 Columbia 41 Purdue 18
25 USC 44 Denver 19 26 Cornell 43 Rice 17
21 LSU 40 Tulsa 19 30 Wisconsin 47 San Diego 17
22 Texas 33 Wake Forest 11 28 UCF 42 Louisville 14
26 Arizona State 37 Florida State 11 22 South Florida 35 Duke 13
27 TCU 36 Rice 9 24 Oregon 34 Memphis 10
31 Washington 38 Clemson 7 27 Ole Miss 37 UCSB 10
30 NC State 35 Oregon 5 32 Kentucky 40 Georgia State 8
32 Notre Dame 34 Kansas 2 33 Florida State 36 Arkansas 3

 

 UTR Power 6 Variance

UTRP6 #1 Seed UTRP6 #4 Seed Var.   UTRP6 #1 Seed UTRP6 #4 Seed Var.
68 Georgia 49 S Carolina St 19   86 TCU 67 Jackson State 19
65 Georgia Tech 49 Alabama State 16 86 Georgia 73 Florida A&M 13
67 Pepperdine 51 LIU Brooklyn 16 88 Virginia 75 Monmouth 13
68 Oklahoma St 53 UMKC 15 85 UCLA 75 Army 10
66 Texas Tech 51 Quinnipiac 15 85 Oklahoma St 75 UMKC 10
66 Michigan 52 Youngstown St 14 86 Ohio State 76 Butler 10
70 Florida 57 Massachusetts 13 84 Oklahoma 75 Bryant 9
67 Vanderbilt 54 SIUE 13 85 Texas 76 Presbyterian 9
68 Ohio State 56 Buffalo 12 84 Stanford 76 Idaho 8
65 Duke 54 Boston U 11 85 California 77 Tenn Tech 8
68 Stanford 57 Idaho 11 86 Wake Forest 79 UNC Wilm 7
68 No. Carolina 59 Furman 9 86 North Carolina 79 VCU 7
66 So. Carolina 58 North Florida 8 85 Florida 78 FGCU 7
65 Baylor 57 Texas A&M CC  8 85 Baylor 78 Lamar 7
67 California 59 San Jose State 8 85 USC 79 Denver 6
64 Auburn 59 DePaul 5 85 Texas A&M 79 Buffalo 6
Women’s Draw Men’s Draw
UTRP6 #2 Seed UTRP6 #3 Seed Var. UTRP6 #2 Seed UTRP6 #3 Seed Var.
64 Texas A&M 58 La Monroe 6 84 Michigan 79 Valparaiso 5
62 Tennessee 58 Winthrop 4 84 South Carolina 80 ETSU 4
65 Miami FL 61 South Florida 4 84 Kentucky 80 Georgia State 4
65 Arkansas 61 Wichita State 4 84 Illinois 81 Drake 3
64 Ole Miss 60 William & Mary 4 84 Northwestern 81 Utah State 3
65 USC 61 Denver 4 85 Tulane 82 Washington 3
64 UCLA 61 UCSB 3 84 Mississippi St 81 SMU 3
65 Arizona State 62 Florida State 3 84 Columbia 81 Purdue 3
63 Kentucky 61 Dartmouth 2 84 Georgia Tech 82 Minnesota 2
65 Texas 63 Wake Forest 2 83 Cornell 82 Rice 1
64 TCU 63 Rice 1 83 Oregon 82 Memphis 1
63 Washington 62 Clemson 1 83 Florida State 82 Arkansas 1
63 Mississippi St 63 Northwestern 0 84 South Florida 84 Duke 0
62 LSU 62 Tulsa 0 82 Ole Miss 82 UCSB 0
63 NC State 63 Oregon 0 81 Wisconsin 82 San Diego -1
63 Notre Dame 63 Kansas 0 81 UCF 82 Louisville -1

 

Men’s Doubles Winning % 

Natl Seed Reg Seed Team W L PCT
3 1 Ohio State 29 3 90.6%
4 1 USC 27 3 90.0%
1 1 Wake Forest 25 4 86.2%
2 1 Virginia 25 4 86.2%
  3 Valparaiso 22 4 84.6%
  2 Wisconsin 19 4 82.6%
  2 Columbia 17 4 81.0%
9 1 North Carolina 22 6 78.6%
6 1 TCU 18 5 78.3%
8 1 California 19 6 76.0%
  2 Michigan 21 7 75.0%
  4 Lamar 18 6 75.0%
11 1 Oklahoma State 20 7 74.1%
13 1 Georgia 18 7 72.0%
  2 Florida State 20 8 71.4%
  4 Presbyterian 20 8 71.4%
  3 UC Santa Barbara 17 7 70.8%
  3 Memphis 16 7 69.6%
  4 Army 20 9 69.0%
  3 Rice 20 9 69.0%
  2 Ole Miss 15 7 68.2%
  3 Duke 17 8 68.0%
  2 Northwestern 21 10 67.7%
  2 Oregon 16 8 66.7%
  2 South Carolina 17 9 65.4%
16 1 Stanford 15 8 65.2%
  4 Idaho 15 8 65.2%
  3 East Tennessee State 15 8 65.2%
  2 South Florida 16 9 64.0%
  4 UMKC 14 8 63.6%
  3 Utah State 19 11 63.3%
  3 Louisville 19 11 63.3%
  4 Tennessee Tech 12 7 63.2%
  4 Buffalo 12 7 63.2%
5 1 UCLA 15 9 62.5%
  3 SMU 15 9 62.5%
  2 Mississippi State 16 10 61.5%
15 1 Florida 16 10 61.5%
7 1 Baylor 17 11 60.7%
  4 Denver 15 10 60.0%
  2 UCF 13 9 59.1%
  3 Purdue 17 12 58.6%
  3 Drake 16 12 57.1%
  4 Monmouth 12 10 54.5%
  3 Arkansas 15 13 53.6%
10 1 Texas 14 13 51.9%
  3 Georgia State 12 12 50.0%
  2 Tulane 11 11 50.0%
  3 San Diego 13 14 48.1%
  3 Minnesota 13 14 48.1%
12 1 Texas A&M 12 13 48.0%
14 1 Oklahoma 12 13 48.0%
  4 Bryant 12 13 48.0%
  2 Georgia Tech 11 12 47.8%
  2 Cornell 11 13 45.8%
  4 Butler 10 12 45.5%
  4 Florida Gulf Coast 10 12 45.5%
  4 Florida A&M 11 14 44.0%
  4 UNC Wilmington 9 12 42.9%
  4 VCU 9 12 42.9%
  2 Kentucky 11 15 42.3%
  2 Illinois 11 16 40.7%
  3 Washington 9 14 39.1%
  4 Jackson State 7 21 25.0%

 

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