It’s hard to believe but the first conference tournament gets started in two weeks with the bulk then coming the following two weeks after that. There will be 29 men’s conference tournaments this year (down from 30 after the Missouri Valley went away) with each winner earning an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. The only conference that does not have a tournament is the Ivy League which awards its automatic berth to the regular season champion. The only school that won’t be able to defend its conference title will be Valparaiso which won the Horizon League last year but is now in the Summit League. There will be 34 at-large bids for the NCAA Tournament with the at-large ranking cutoff expected to be 43 or 44.
Below is a look at the conference races with the contenders listed for all of my projected 1-bid leagues – of course that doesn’t mean a darkhorse can’t rise to the occasion and pull off an upset. For the Power 5, AAC, CUSA, and Ivy League I’ll list who I think is probably in along with teams that will be on the bubble. Teams in the bigger conferences have enough matches left against ranked teams to make a move while teams in the one-bid leagues will not. So for those teams from the mid-major to lower-major conferences that are already ranked below 50 it’ll be tough for them to make up the ground needed to get higher than the at-large cutoff.
I’ll do another update the week before the conference tournaments because by then they’ll be a pretty clear picture of what each team needs to do to get in.
My men’s conference tournament central page will be located under the events tab plus and I’ll add draws once they become available.
Potential multiple-bid leagues (Tournament Location/Host) – (7)
American Athletic Conference (Dallas/SMU) – Last year the AAC put five teams into the field but this year it looks like three will be the max with South Florida, SMU, and Tulsa all down. Memphis and Tulane are locks and UCF should make it in as long as it doesn’t take a bad loss down the stretch versus Tulsa or South Florida. SMU is hosting this year but the freshmen-laden roster doesn’t have the firepower or experience to pull off multiple upsets. Wichita State is currently about 15 spots below the projected cut-off and to have a shot at making it they’d have to win their last two regular season matches, on the road against SMU and Drake, and make it to the finals of the conference tournament, which would have to include wins over UCF and either Memphis or Tulane. East Carolina has a stout 18-4 record however the Pirates have 0 wins over teams ranked in the top 125 and they only scheduled two regular season conference matches with those coming against UConn and Temple.
- Locks – Memphis, Tulane
- Bubble – UCF
- Long Shot – Wichita State
Projected bids – 3 (UCF)
Atlantic Coast Conference (Cary, NC) – The ACC had seven teams dancing last year and it looks like eight or possibly nine could make it this year. Notre Dame will definitely have the ranking to make it in, courtesy of early season wins over Kentucky, Texas, and Minnesota, however the Irish (12-11) may have trouble finishing above .500 with remaining matches against Duke, Miami, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and the conference tournament.
Virginia is playing much better with Carl Soderlund back at the top of the lineup but the Hoos are really lacking quality wins. They have four straight home matches coming up against Miami, Florida State, NC State, and Wake Forest before finishing up the regular season on the road in the Commonwealth Clash against Virginia Tech. The only one of those matches where I don’t see them having much of a chance is against Wake but all the other matches are winnable. If they can beat Miami, Virginia Tech, and either NC State or Florida State I think they’ll make it however if they lose to both NCST and FSU then it will take a decent run in the conference tournament.
Louisville took it on the chin twice this past weekend against Miami and Florida State and with North Carolina, Duke, and Wake Forest coming up next the Cards match on April 15th against NC State will be a must-win match.
A few weeks ago I would have given Miami very little chance to make it but after wins over NC State, South Alabama, and Louisville (plus a razor-thin loss to Wake Forest) the Canes are right in the thick of things. Miami has four straight road matches coming up (UVA/VT/ND/BC) and if they can find a way to win three of them I think the Canes will be playing in May.
Virginia Tech moved up from No. 70 to No. 53 after picking up road wins over Georgia Tech and Clemson but the Hokies still have a lot of work to do to get up another 10 spots. Virginia Tech closes out the regular season with its final five matches all at home and so far this year the Hokies are 8-2 at the Burrows-Burleson Tennis Center. This coming weekend Florida State and Miami come in then the following weekend its VCU with Louisville and Virginia coming in the week after that. The Hokies will likely need to go 4-1 in that stretch and then also have a good performance at the conference tournament.
Clemson’s NCAA hopes were all but wiped out after a 2-5 record in March and with a loaded schedule in April I don’t see them picking up enough wins to stay above .500.
- Locks: Wake Forest, North Carolina, Florida State, Duke, NC State
- Probably In: Notre Dame (.500)
- Bubble: Virginia, Louisville, Miami FL
- Long Shot: Clemson, Virginia Tech
Projected bids – 7 (Notre Dame & Virginia)
Big Ten Conference (Iowa City) – Last year the Big Ten sent seven to “The Show” but this year I can’t see more than five going and that last entry may be a stretch. Wisconsin is the only one of the B1G’s bubble teams that doesn’t have to worry about finishing below .500. The Badgers are currently 11-7 and have several winnable matches remaining however three of those come on the road including at Purdue and Indiana this weekend. I think Wisconsin needs to beat Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State, and Northwestern, plus avoid an early exit at the B1G Tournament, to put itself in contention for a bid. The Badgers could take themselves off the bubble and jump solidly into the field if they can upset Michigan (home) or Illinois (road).
Penn State is currently 11-9, after dropping its last three, and to keep its bubble hopes alive the Nits will need to finish really strong. They have a pair of must-win matches this weekend at home against Nebraska and Iowa then they welcome in Northwestern and Illinois the following week before finishing on the road at Indiana and Purdue. Penn State is just 2-7 in true road matches with the wins coming over UCF and VCU. In my opinion, I don’t think they can afford to go any worse than 4-2 and probably need to go 5-1 to have a legitimate shot.
Iowa is currently 12-10 but plays five of its final seven matches on the road including three this weekend at Dayton, Ohio State, and Penn State. The Hawkeyes have only won once away from Iowa City, and that came back in February against Dartmouth, so to have any chance of moving up they’ll need to get things rolling this weekend with wins against Dayton and Penn State. In addition to winning those two the Hawkeyes would also need to beat Indiana and Purdue at home and then beat Michigan State on the road with a loss at Michigan expected on April 21. Iowa is hosting the conference tournament so they might be able to parlay the home-court advantage into a win or two that otherwise they wouldn’t have picked up.
Indiana is currently one game below .500 at 9-10 however the Hoosiers play four of their final six at home with all four (Minn/Wisc/PSU/OSU) of those coming against higher-ranked teams (also play Iowa/Neb on road). If Indiana managed to go 4-2 in those six they’d get themselves in the picture however anything less than that would be lights out unless they made a deep run in the conference tournament.
- Locks: Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota
- Bubble: Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa
- Long Shot: Indiana
Projected bids – 5 (Wisconsin)
Big 12 Conference (Austin) – All six teams are going to make it with everyone currently ranked inside the top 30.
- Locks: TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech
Projected bids – 6
Conference USA (Houston/Rice) – Rice has been the frontrunners in the CUSA for the last several years but the Owls dropped off considerably after replacing five of six starters from last year’s squad. Old Dominion is currently ranked No. 36, which would normally put them on the bubble, but in my opinion the Monarchs should make it in based off a decent number of mid-tier wins with no bad losses. ODU only has two regular season matches remaining (at Drake; home W&M) and I think they’ll win both which will move them up even more.
Middle Tennessee State’s final four regular season matches will determine their fate. The Blue Raiders have VCU and William & Mary coming to the Boro this weekend then the following week they go to East Tennessee State before closing out the regular season at home against Georgia State. If MTSU wins three of those four and makes it to the final of the conference tournament they are in.
Southern Miss has the best winning percentage in the conference at .842 however the Eagles 16-3 record has come against lesser competition with none of those wins coming over top 100 opponents. The only USM makes the dance is if they run the table and win the conference tournament.
- Locks: Old Dominion
- Bubble: Middle Tennessee State
- Long Shot: Southern Miss
Projected bids – 1
The Ivy League – The only conference without a tournament has two teams firmly in the field with Dartmouth sitting pretty good while everyone else needs to get to work. The eight-team conference has no team ranked lower than 90, so everyone is still alive, however to rise into the top 43 or 44 several would need to finish 5-2 in conference to have a chance. Cornell has played the fifth toughest schedule in the nation, according to Slam.Tennis, but the Big Red’s ranking is lower than one would think due to only having seven total wins. If Cornell sweeps Princeton and Penn this weekend I think they’ll move into the mid 30s within a few weeks and should make it in comfortably.
- Locks: Columbia, Harvard
- Bubble: Dartmouth, Cornell, Princeton, Penn
- Long Shot – Yale, Brown
Projected bids – 4 (Dartmouth, Cornell)
Pac-12 Conference (Ojai, Ca) – The Pac-12 sent six schools to the NCAAs last year and I think that’s about where they’ll be this year. The 19-2 Utah Utes have surged into the lower 30s after winning five straight matches with four of those finishing with 4-3 scores. Utah isn’t going to beat UCLA, USC, or Stanford but Cal, Oregon, and Washington are winnable matches with the latter two taking place in Salt Lake City. Anything other than an 0-6 finish should have Utah playing tennis in May.
Cal (8-6) saw its five-match winning streak get snapped last week against UCLA and USC but the Bears will stay in the Bay Area to finish out the regular season with three of its final four matches at the Hellman Tennis Complex. If Cal can get at least a split against Utah, Stanford (road), Washington, and Oregon the Bears should be in with ease.
Arizona State (11-7) has a challenging five matches coming up to close out the regular season. The Sun Devils head to the Pacific Northwest this weekend to play Washington and Oregon, then they welcome in UCLA and USC to Tempe, and finally they finish at home against Arizona. I think if they can go at least 2-3 in those matches they’re in and if one of those wins is over USC or UCLA then they definitely are in.
Oregon (13-6) closes out its home schedule this weekend against Arizona and Arizona State and then hits the road to play Utah, Stanford, and Cal. Anything other than a sweep over the Arizona schools will mean that the Ducks will likely need to win two of three on the road to put itself in contention.
- Locks: UCLA, Stanford, USC
- Bubble: Utah, Cal, Arizona State, Oregon
- Long Shots: Washington, Arizona
Projected bids – 7 (Utah, Cal, Arizona State, Oregon)
Southeastern Conference (Tuscaloosa/Alabama) – The SEC put eight teams in last year and will likely do the same this year. The reason I don’t have Georgia as a lock, despite a ranking of 21, is because the Bulldogs are just two games over .500. Georgia heads to Alabama this weekend, with Emil Reinberg and Walker Duncan not expected to play and Robert Loeb possibly a matchday decision, and then they finish at home against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. If Georgia were to lose all three they’d have to win at least two matches at the conference tournament to finish .500 or better. I think Georgia probably finds a way to beat Kentucky or Vanderbilt to slide in but it’s possible the Bulldogs stay home this year.
Ole Miss, which has been hampered by injuries to half its starting six, can lock up a bid this weekend with an upset over state rival Mississippi State. Even if the Rebels stumble in that one they should still be able to make it as long as they don’t lose to both Auburn on Friday and Arkansas next weekend.
Arkansas (12-11) heads to Starksville on Friday and Auburn on Sunday before closing out the regular season at home against Ole Miss. Arkansas needs to win two of those three otherwise they head to the conference tournament needing a win to finish above .500 unless they bring Omaha back for a few more.
Alabama started off the year 14-0 but the Crimson Tide has dropped eight of its last nine and is now sitting on the outside looking in. A win over a depleted Georgia will put them back in contention but if they can’t follow it up with a win over Tennessee, South Carolina, or Florida then it’ll take an upset in the conference tournament.
- Locks: Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, South Carolina
- Probably In: Georgia (.500)
- Bubble: Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama
Projected bids – 9 (Georgia, Ole Miss)
Projected 1-bid leagues (Tournament Location/Host) – (22)
Atlantic Sun Conference (Jacksonville, FL)
- Contenders – North Florida (host), Stetson, Florida Gulf Coast, Kennesaw State
Atlantic 10 Conference (Lake Nona, FL)
- Contenders – VCU, Davidson, Dayton
Big East Conference (Cayce, SC)
- Contenders: Butler, DePaul, Marquette, St. John’s
Big Sky Conference (Phoenix)
- Contenders: Northern Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Southern Utah, Weber State
Big South Conference (Rock Hill, SC)
- Contenders: Winthrop (host), Longwood, Liberty, UNC Asheville, Campbell, Presbyterian
Big West Conference (Indian Wells)
- Contenders: Cal Poly, UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine
Colonial Athletic Association (Elon, NC)
- Contenders: William & Mary, UNC Wilmington, Elon (host), James Madison
Horizon League (West Lafayette, IN)
- Contenders: Cleveland State, Wright State, Youngstown State, Illinois-Chicago
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (West Windsor, NJ)
- Contenders: Marist, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Fairfield
Mid-American Conference (Buffalo)
- Contenders: Western Michigan, Buffalo (host), Northern Illinois
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (Norfolk/Norfolk State)
- Contenders: South Carolina State
Mountain West Conference (San Diego)
- Contenders: Utah State, New Mexico, UNLV, Fresno State, Nevada
Northeast Conference (West Windsor, NJ)
- Contenders: Bryant, St. Francis (PA), Wagner
Ohio Valley Conference (Nashville/Belmont/Tennessee State)
- Contenders: Tennessee Tech, Belmont (host), Jacksonville State
Patriot League (Hamilton, NY/Colgate)
- Contenders: Army, Navy, Colgate (host), Boston U
Southern Conference (Chattanooga, TN)
- Contenders: East Tennessee State, Mercer, Furman, UNC Greensboro, Wofford
Southland Conference (Beaumont, TX/Lamar)
- Contenders: Abilene Christian, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Incarnate Word, Lamar (host)
Southwestern Athletic Conference (New Orleans)
- Contenders: Alabama State
The Summit League (Denver)
- Contenders: Drake, Denver (host)
Sun Belt Conference (Peachtree City, GA/Georgia State)
- Contenders: Georgia State (host), South Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia Southern
West Coast Conference (Claremont, CA)
- Contenders: San Diego, Loyola Marymount, BYU, Portland
Western Athletic Conference (Phoenix/Grand Canyon)
- Contenders: New Mexico State, UMKC, Grand Canyon (host)
If viewing on mobile turn phone sideways to properly see the chart
| M-Conference | Dates | Location | Host School | 2017 Champion |
| AAC | 4/19 – 4/22 | Dallas | SMU | South Florida |
| ACC | 4/25 – 4/29 | Cary, NC | – | Virginia |
| Atlantic 10 | 4/26 – 4/29 | Lake Nona, FL | – | VCU |
| Atlantic Sun | 4/20 – 4/22 | Jacksonville | North Florida | Florida Gulf Coast |
| Big 12 | 4/27 – 4/29 | Austin, TX | Texas | TCU |
| Big East | 4/26 – 4/29 | Cayce, SC | – | Butler |
| Big Sky | 4/26 – 4/28 | Phoenix | – | Idaho |
| Big South | 4/16 – 4/18 | Rock Hill, SC | Winthrop | Presbyterian |
| Big Ten | 4/26 – 4/29 | Iowa City | Iowa | Ohio State |
| Big West | 4/26 – 4/29 | Indian Wells | – | UC Santa Barbara |
| Colonial | 4/20 – 4/22 | Elon, NC | Elon | UNC Wilmington |
| Conference USA | 4/20 – 4/22 | Houston | Rice | Rice |
| Horizon | 4/27 – 4/29 | West Lafayette, IN | Valparaiso | |
| MAAC | 4/28 – 4/29 | West Windsor, NJ | – | Monmouth |
| MEAC | 4/26 – 4/28 | Norfolk | Norfolk State | Florida A&M |
| Mid-American | 4/27 – 4/28 | Buffalo | Buffalo | Buffalo |
| Mountain West | 4/26 – 4/28 | San Diego | San Diego State | Utah State |
| Northeast | 4/20 – 4/22 | West Windsor, NJ | – | Bryant |
| Ohio Valley | 4/20 – 4/22 | Nashville, TN | Belmont/Tenn State | Tennessee Tech |
| Pac-12 | 4/25 – 4/29 | Ojai, CA | – | USC |
| Patriot | 4/26 – 4/29 | Hamilton, NY | Colgate | Army |
| SEC | 4/26 – 4/29 | Tuscaloosa | Alabama | Georgia |
| Southern | 4/20 – 4/22 | Chattanooga, TN | Chattanooga | East Tennessee State |
| Southland | 4/27 – 4/29 | Beaumont, TX | Lamar | Lamar |
| Summit | 4/27 – 4/28 | Denver | Denver | Denver |
| Sun Belt | 4/19 – 4/22 | Peachtree City, GA | Georgia State | Georgia State |
| SWAC | 4/13 – 4/15 | New Orleans | – | Alabama State |
| WAC | 4/27 – 4/29 | Phoenix | Grand Canyon | UMKC |
| WCC | 4/26 – 4/28 | Claremont, CA | – | San Diego |
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