The final week of the regular season is coming to a close and while some teams wrapped up play last week others are playing conference tournaments this week. If you are ranked in the 38 to 50 range that means you’re on the bubble so not only do you want to keep winning (if you have matches left) but you also need others around you to fall so they don’t pass you. I’ll go team-by-team to tell you what each team needs to do to give themselves their best chance of securing an NCAA at-large bid. The at-large cutoff is expected to be at either 42 or 43 with San Diego’s outcome at the WCC Tournament determining which number it’ll be. A USD title would mean 43 while a USD loss would mean 42.
#38 Utah – the Utes can lock up a bid with a win over Arizona on Wednesday at the Pac-12 Tournament. Utah’s only Pac-12 win came at home against that same Arizona squad in a high competitive 4-3 match which saw five of six singles matches go the distance. If they lose their seventh straight match they’d need several teams below them to lose as well to avoid falling too far due to Arizona being ranked outside the top 60. (lost to Arizona 4-2)
#39 Miami FL – the Canes can lock up a bid with a win over #22 NC State on Thursday at the ACC Tournament. Miami won the regular season meeting at home in a 4-3 thriller in a match that came down to a third set tiebreak. A loss, while not optimal, wouldn’t be a total death blow due to NCST’s ranking. Canes would probably still make it unless several teams picked up big wins this week. (lost to NCST 4-1)
#40 Ole Miss – the Rebels can lock up their bid with a win over #28 South Carolina on Thursday at the SEC Tournament. South Carolina won the regular season meeting at home 5-2 in a match that Ole Miss played without its top singles player Gustav Hansson. Hansson hasn’t played since March 9th and without him in the lineup the Rebs have gone just 4-7 with two of those wins coming over Arkansas Pine Bluff. It’s unknown whether he’ll play on Thursday or not but suffice to say without him they’ll be significant underdogs. (def. South Carolina 4-1; lost to Mississippi State 4-0)
#41 San Diego – the Toreros will be the top seed in the West Coast Conference so winning it for the fifth year in a row will be USD’s best and most likely only path to a bid because any loss would come to a team ranked outside the top 50. USD went 8-1 in conference play this season and outscored its opponents 33-6 in those eight wins however it did have the one surprising lopsided loss at Santa Clara. (def. Loyola Marymount 4-0 in WCC Final)
#42 Middle Tennessee State – the Blue Raiders finished up play last weekend in the Conference USA Tournament so they are relying on others around them to fall.
#43 Indiana – the Hoosiers can greatly enhance their at-large chances with wins over Michigan State and Minnesota at the Big Ten tournament. IU defeated Minnesota 4-3 on April 6 however that match was in Bloomington. A loss to Minnesota would make IU’s path to the NCAAs pretty tough. (def. Michigan State 4-0; lost to Minnesota 4-1)
#44 Louisville – the Cards can enhance their chances with a win over #48 Virginia on Thursday in the 8 versus 9 match at the ACC Tournament in Cary. Louisville won the regular season meeting 6-1 in a match that was played indoors at home back in early March. While a win over UVA wouldn’t guarantee a bid, since a loss would be expected against Wake in the quarters, it would at least put them in contention. A loss to UVA would be a season-ender. (lost to Virginia 4-1)
#45 Cornell – the formula for the Big Red to get in is pretty simple. If they beat #16 Columbia at home on Saturday they are in; if they lose they’d be out due to being one game below .500 plus not having strong enough wins (lost to Columbia 4-0)
#46 UCF – see #42 MTSU
#47 Arkansas – if the Hogs beat #18 Georgia on Thursday at the SEC Tournament they are in; if they lose they are done. Arkansas won the regular season meeting in Fayetteville 4-3. (lost to Georgia 4-2)
#48 Virginia – see #44 Louisville – they’d be in the same boat with a win over Louisville and a loss to Wake – would be right on the edge (def. Louisville 4-1; lost to Wake Forest 4-1)
#49 Penn State – the Nittany Lions need to make the semifinals at the Big Ten Tournament to have a chance and will need to make the finals to guarantee a spot. PSU’s path to the final would be Purdue, #8 Illinois, and most likely #13 Michigan. (def. Purdue 4-0; lost to Illinois 4-0)
#50 Alabama – the Crimson Tide, which are hosting the SEC Tournament, would be in good shape if they can defeat Auburn and #25 Kentucky and they could remove all doubt with a win over Tennessee in the quarterfinals. A loss to either Auburn or Kentucky would be a season ender. (def. Auburn 4-0; def. Kentucky 4-1; lost to Tennessee 4-3)
Outside Top 50
Washington – the Huskies would be in with a win over #4 Stanford on Thursday at the Pac-12 Tournament while a loss would be a season ender. (lost to Stanford 4-2)
Utah State – the Aggies have to win the Mountain West Tournament to get in (def. Fresno State 4-1 to win Mountain West).
Wisconsin – the Badgers have to make it to the Big Ten final to get in – anything else won’t be enough. (def. Nebraska 4-1; lost to Michigan 4-1)
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