Tagged with: NCAA Tournament Facts/Figures, NCAA Tournament Previews

We are just days away from the start of this year’s NCAA Tournament with seven sites firing up on Friday while the other nine begin play on Saturday. 15 of the 16 host sites will have live scoring (USC has video with scores on it but no actual scoring page) and at least 9 will have streaming video – check my live scoring page to see who is doing what. The Power 5 conferences accounted for 36 (56%) of the 64 bids with the SEC putting 10 teams in, the ACC with 9, the Pac-12 with 7, the Big XII with all 6 of its teams, and the Big Ten with 4. The only other conferences to put multiple teams in were the Ivy League at 3 and the American at 2. 

UCLA will be appearing in the NCAA Tournament for the 42nd year in a row, which is every year since the team format was started in 1977, while it’ll be the 35th year in a row for Georgia. I have a list down below of all the schools that have made it at least 10 years in a row and while most of the schools are familiar names there are a few that you might not expect. 

There are going to be some 4-3 matches this weekend and more times than not the team that claims the doubles point will win the match. Of the 64 teams competing in this year’s tournament, Ohio State plays the best doubles with the Buckeyes winning the doubles point 87.1% of the time while TCU is second at 86.4%. There are three schools that made the field with a doubles percentage less than 50% with the worst being Lamar at just 28.6%. I have the full list down below. 

The team with the highest UTR Power 6 as of 5/8/18 is Texas A&M with the Aggies coming in at 84.7 which is an average of 14.1 per player. The second, third, and fourth highest are only separated by .1 with Wake Forest at 84.6, Ohio State at 84.5, and North Carolina at 84.4. These numbers will differ some from what you see on UTRs site because I used the actual lineups that the schools submitted whereas UTR has some players listed in the top 6 that won’t play due to injury (Oklahoma State’s Julian Cash, TCU’s Alastair Gray, Virginia’s Henrik Wiersholm, Oklahoma’s Spencer Papa) or other reasons (Francisco Cerundolo left South Carolina, Santiago Plaza not showing on ETSU’s roster). The only team where I made a change was Wake Forest who would have been No. 8 at 83.7 because the roster that Tony Bresky submitted has Eduardo Nava listed at 5 and Alan Gadjiev at 6. They might use that lineup against Navy but from there on out I’d expect to see Christian Seraphim at 5 and Rrezart Cungu at 6 which elevates the team’s Power 6 to 84.6.  

For those filling out a bracket over at Slam.Tennis I’d recommend that you plan on having at least one top 16 seed get upset during the first two rounds. Since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1999, there has yet to be a year where all the top 16 seeds survived the opening weekend and in fact in 17 of the 19 years more than one top 16 seed has been defeated. In the past I tracked who advanced to the Sweet 16 by seed within the bracket but since the NCAA changed its procedures this year there won’t actually be 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 matchups at each site. Having said that no team has defeated a top 16 seed in the first round and then won another match in the second round to make it the Sweet 16. The closest a team has come was Denver in 2013 when the Pioneers stunned Florida in the first round before falling to Cal in the second round.  

I took the master lineups that each of the teams submitted and put them into a spreadsheet to see who had the highest dual-match winning percentage per position. You can view them at this link (also includes them sorted by UTR) and down below I have the top five at each position. 

 

Weekend Schedule (Times ET):

 

Doubles Dual-Match Records

Seed	Team	W	L	PCT
3	Ohio State	27	4	87.1%
9	TCU	19	3	86.4%
	Navy	30	7	81.1%
7	North Carolina	21	5	80.8%
10	USC	20	5	80.0%
4	Stanford	19	5	79.2%
	UC Santa Barbara	19	5	79.2%
2	UCLA	22	6	78.6%
6	Mississippi State	17	5	77.3%
	Baylor	22	7	75.9%
1	Wake Forest	20	7	74.1%
	UNC Wilmington	17	6	73.9%
	Alabama	22	8	73.3%
	Oregon	19	7	73.1%
	Western Michigan	19	7	73.1%
	South Carolina State	13	5	72.2%
	Dartmouth	18	7	72.0%
	Oklahoma State	20	8	71.4%
	East Tennessee St	16	7	69.6%
	Harvard	18	8	69.2%
	Texas Tech	20	9	69.0%
	New Mexico State	15	7	68.2%
15	Michigan	17	8	68.0%
	Tennessee	19	9	67.9%
16	Columbia	14	7	66.7%
	Virginia Tech	16	8	66.7%
	Idaho	14	7	66.7%
	Bryant	19	10	65.5%
	South Carolina	17	9	65.4%
11	Texas	15	8	65.2%
	Tennessee Tech	11	6	64.7%
5	Texas A&M	16	9	64.0%
13	Florida	16	9	64.0%
	Drake	20	12	62.5%
	Duke	18	11	62.1%
	Vanderbilt	16	10	61.5%
12	Florida State	19	12	61.3%
	Marquette	14	9	60.9%
	Minnesota	14	9	60.9%
	Memphis	14	9	60.9%
8	Illinois	17	11	60.7%
	VCU	15	10	60.0%
	Ole Miss	15	10	60.0%
	Cleveland State	16	11	59.3%
	Campbell	13	9	59.1%
14	Oklahoma	14	10	58.3%
	San Diego	14	10	58.3%
	Miami FL	15	11	57.7%
	Utah	16	12	57.1%
	Tulane	13	10	56.5%
	Georgia	13	10	56.5%
	South Alabama	13	10	56.5%
	Old Dominion	14	11	56.0%
	NC State	14	11	56.0%
	California	11	9	55.0%
	Monmouth	13	11	54.2%
	Alabama State	9	8	52.9%
	North Florida	11	10	52.4%
	Utah State	14	13	51.9%
	Notre Dame	16	15	51.6%
	Arizona State	12	12	50.0%
	Kentucky	11	14	44.0%
	Virginia	9	16	36.0%
	Lamar	6	15	28.6%

 

UTR Power 6 (as of 5/8/18)

Rank	Team	Power 6	Avg
1	Texas A&M	84.7	14.1
2	Wake Forest	84.6	14.1
3	Ohio State	84.5	14.1
4	North Carolina	84.4	14.1
5	Florida	84.1	14.0
6	Illinois	83.9	14.0
7	Stanford	83.8	14.0
8	UCLA	83.7	14.0
9	Southern California	83.6	13.9
10	TCU	83.5	13.9
11	Georgia	83.5	13.9
12	Mississippi State	83.5	13.9
13	Texas	82.9	13.8
14	Florida State	82.9	13.8
15	Michigan	82.7	13.8
16	Baylor	82.6	13.8
17	Tulane	82.6	13.8
18	Columbia	82.5	13.7
19	Duke	82.3	13.7
20	Arizona State	82.2	13.7
21	Cal	81.9	13.6
22	Oklahoma	81.9	13.6
23	Kentucky	81.8	13.6
24	Minnesota	81.8	13.6
25	Vanderbilt	81.7	13.6
26	Tennessee	81.5	13.6
27	Memphis	81.4	13.6
28	Notre Dame	81.2	13.5
29	UC Santa Barbara	81.2	13.5
30	Virginia	81.0	13.5
31	South Carolina	80.9	13.5
32	Oregon	80.9	13.5
33	Ole Miss	80.9	13.5
34	Alabama	80.8	13.5
35	Oklahoma State	80.8	13.5
36	Dartmouth	80.7	13.5
37	San Diego	80.7	13.5
38	NC State	80.7	13.4
39	Old Dominion	80.4	13.4
40	Harvard	80.0	13.3
41	Texas Tech	80.0	13.3
42	Virginia Tech	79.0	13.2
43	Miami FL	78.9	13.2
44	Utah	78.9	13.1
45	Drake	78.6	13.1
46	East Tennessee State	78.6	13.1
47	Utah State	78.2	13.0
48	VCU	78.2	13.0
49	Western Michigan	78.0	13.0
50	South Alabama	77.9	13.0
51	UNC Wilmington	77.2	12.9
52	North Florida	77.0	12.8
53	New Mexico State	75.5	12.6
54	Marquette	75.2	12.5
55	Cleveland State	75.0	12.5
56	Tennessee Tech	74.9	12.5
57	Monmouth	74.5	12.4
58	Lamar	74.3	12.4
59	Campbell	74.1	12.4
60	South Carolina St	74.1	12.3
61	Idaho	74.0	12.3
62	Bryant	73.9	12.3
63	Navy	73.0	12.2
64	Alabama State	70.5	11.8

 

Number of Top 16 seeds to lose before the Round of 16:
2017 (1) – Illinois def. #11 Oklahoma State 4-0
2016 (4) – Mississippi State def. #15 Illinois 4-0; Texas def. #12 Texas A&M 4-3; Stanford def. #14 Northwestern 4-3; SMU def. #8 Texas Tech 4-2
2015 (2) – Columbia def. #14 Ole Miss 4-1; South Florida def. #15 Virginia Tech 4-0
2014 (2) – Cal def. #8 Texas A&M 4-3, Tennessee def. #11 Duke 4-2
2013 (2) – Memphis def. #6 Ole Miss 4-2, Denver upset #15 Florida 4-3 (1st Round)
2012 (2) – Baylor def. #9 Mississippi State 4-3, Tulsa def. #10 Oklahoma 4-1
2011 (2) – #36 Tulsa def. #13 Texas 4-3, Illinois def. #16 North Carolina 4-1*
2010 (2) – Wisconsin def. #13 Illinois 4-1, Oklahoma def. #14 Texas Tech 4-2**
2009 (3) – Wake Forest def. #11 Kentucky 4-2, Boise St def. #14 Alabama 4-3, Miami def. #10 Florida 4-3
2008 (1) – Oklahoma State def. #11 Tulsa 4-3***
2007 (3) – Florida def. #16 Florida State 4-3, Alabama def. #14 Duke 4-3, NC State def. #6 UNC 4-0
2006 (3) – Notre Dame def. #16 Texas A&M 4-2, Washington def. #12 VCU 4-0, Florida def. #15 Oklahoma State 4-0
2005 (2) – Florida State def. #12 Kentucky 4-2, South Carolina def. #13 Oklahoma State 4-3
2004 (7) – Vanderbilt def. #8 Ole Miss 4-1, Texas A&M def. #13 VCU 4-0, TCU def. #12 Kentucky 4-2, Clemson def. #5 Duke 4-3, Arkansas def. #15 Tennessee 4-1, Rice def. #14 LSU 4-0, Ohio State def. #11 North Carolina 4-3
2003 (2) – Ohio State def. #13 Kentucky 4-3, Oklahoma State def. #11 Minnesota 4-2
2002 (2) – Washington def. #5 Stanford 4-3, Duke def. #10 California 4-3****
2001 (2) – Mississippi State def. #10 Illinois 4-2, USC def. #12 Ole Miss 4-3
2000 (3) – San Diego State def. #3 Pepperdine 4-2, VCU def. #14 Ole Miss 4-3, USC def. #13 Fresno State 4-1
1999 (3) – Virginia Tech def. #16 Alabama 4-3, Fresno State def. #12 USC 4-1, Mississippi State def. #11 Tennessee 4-3

* 2011 – Illinois was actually ranked #17 and UNC was ranked #18.
** 2010 – Oklahoma hosted regional even though Texas Tech was seeded
*** 2008 – Tulsa hosted NCAAs that year – didn’t help attendance when they lost early
**** 2002 – Duke hosted regional even though Cal was seeded

No. 3 seeds to advance to Round of 16: Tulsa (2011), South Carolina (2005), Washington (2002), San Diego State (2000), Virginia Tech (1999)

No. 4 seeds to advance to Round of 16: None

 

Top Singles Dual-Match Winning Percentage by Slot (min 10 matches – all matches not necessarily played at that spot)

Pos.	ITA	Player	School	UTR	W	L	%
1	36	Ryan Peniston	Memphis	14.32	15	2	0.88
1	30	Alex Bakshi	Oklahoma	14.17	14	2	0.88
1		Matt Kuhar	Bryant	13.29	20	3	0.87
1		Kenny Tao	Harvard	13.69	13	2	0.87
1	3	WIlliam Blumberg	North Carolina	14.69	18	3	0.86
2	4	Petros Chrysochos	Wake Forest	14.70	23	1	0.96
2		Loic Cloes	South Alabama	13.54	20	1	0.95
2		Joseph Guillin	UC Santa Barbara	14.01	19	2	0.90
2	42	Jan Zielinski	Georgia	13.94	16	2	0.89
2	88	Andrew Watson	Memphis	14.13	17	3	0.85
3	35	Lucas Poullain	Florida State	14.11	22	1	0.96
3	56	Keegan Smith	UCLA	14.23	21	2	0.91
3	92	John McNally	Ohio State	14.11	18	2	0.90
3	48	Jordi Arconada	Texas A&M	14.31	20	4	0.83
3		Santiago Sierra	Utah	13.18	18	4	0.82
4		Bar Botzer	Wake Forest	13.86	20	2	0.91
4		Jochen Bertsch	Oklahoma	13.14	9	1	0.90
4		Aleks Kovacevic	Illinois	14.20	17	2	0.89
4		David Gonzalez	East Tenn State	13.09	15	2	0.88
4		Ty Gentry	Oregon	13.48	15	2	0.88
5	96	Kyle Seelig	Ohio State	13.64	16	6	0.73
5		Austen Huang	Columbia	13.44	10	4	0.71
5		Gabe Pilones	Navy	12.04	19	8	0.70
5		Chase Perez-Blanco	Florida	13.81	14	6	0.70
5		Will Little	Baylor	13.79	9	4	0.69
6		Louis Menard	New Mexico State	12.36	14	1	0.93
6		Adrian Ortiz	Texas	13.42	12	2	0.86
6	112	Martin Joyce	Ohio State	13.98	20	4	0.83
6		Addy Vashistha	Utah State	12.82	9	2	0.82
6		Leftherios Theodorou	Oklahoma State	12.87	8	2	0.80

 

Top Individual UTRs (as of 5/8) – first W/L column is dual-match & second is overall

Pos.	ITA	Player	School	UTR	DM W	L	%	Ov. W	L
1	13	Aleks Vukic	Illinois	14.76	13	6	0.68	13	6
2	65	Trevor Johnson	TCU	14.75	15	4	0.79	15	4
1	6	Mikael Torpegaard	Ohio State	14.74	21	6	0.78	25	7
2	4	Petros Chrysochos	Wake Forest	14.70	23	1	0.96	34	4
1	3	WIlliam Blumberg	North Carolina	14.69	18	3	0.86	24	3
1	21	Alex Rybakov	TCU	14.69	13	3	0.81	18	5
1	2	Nuno Borges	Mississippi State	14.66	16	4	0.80	23	5
1	9	Tom Fawcett	Stanford	14.66	10	4	0.71	19	5
1	7	Borna Gojo	Wake Forest	14.59	12	2	0.86	12	2
1	45	Gustav Hansson	Ole Miss	14.51	6	4	0.60	9	5
2	32	Benjamin Sigouin	North Carolina	14.51	16	3	0.84	16	3