I previewed the NCAA Men’s Super Regionals on Monday and now it’s time to preview the NCAA Women’s Super Regionals which will take place on Friday and Saturday.
Five of the eight Super Regionals will be rematches with UCLA and Washington set to meet for a third time while the two USCs (Southern Cal & South Carolina) will meet for the second time but first time on this continent after a January dual in Australia.
Pepperdine and UCF will meet for the first-time ever while Stanford and Kansas will meet for the second time with the previous match taking place 22 years in 1997.
The biggest underdog in terms of UTR Power 6s are NC State (-3.68) and USC (-3.33) while the teams with the lowest expected winning percentage according to Slam.Tennis are Oklahoma State and Michigan which have just a 3% and 4% chance to win respectively.
Slam.Tennis has the UCLA/Washington match as the closest thing to a toss-up while UTR P6s have Pepperdine/UCF and North Carolina/Oklahoma State as the two closest.
All road trips are not created equal with UCF, USC, and Kansas traveling over 1800 miles while NC State makes the short 23 mile drive up the road to Duke.
As with the men, rain could play a role this weekend with the matches at North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and possibly South Carolina expected to see rain at some point over the weekend. As of today, the weather looks good on Friday in the Durham/Chapel Hill area so Duke shouldn’t have a problem getting its match in outdoors but with rain coming Saturday maybe UNC thinks about shifting its match up a day – we’ll see.
#16 Michigan at #1 Georgia (Saturday)
- Georgia played the exact same singles lineup in every match (only exception was first round match against Alabama State who only had 5 players so Wolff sat out)
- UGA’s Vivian Wolff and Elena Christofi are a perfect 15-0 in doubles
- UGA’s Vivian Wolff has won 18 straight matches and is 22-1 in dual-match play
- UGA’s Elena Christofi has won 10 straight matches
- UGA’s Katarina Jokic has had 13 of her last 16 matches go unfinished
- UGA’s Lourdes Carle has won 13 of her last 14 completed matches
- UGA’s Meg Kowalski has only lost 1 time all year
- UGA played 20 opponents ranked in the ITA Top 50 (12 in the Top 25)
- Michigan played 14 opponents ranked in the ITA Top 50 (7 in the Top 25)
- UM is making its 9th appearance in the Round of 16 (1-7 record in R16 matches – best-ever finish 2016 QF)
- UM is 18-0 when it wins the doubles point
- UM’s Kate Fahey and Brienne Minor are 13-1 at No. 1 doubles
- UM’s Kate Fahey has won her last 20 completed matches (all in straight sets) and is 20-1 on the year
- UM’s Giulia Pairone has won 12 of her last 13 completed matches (11 in straight sets)
- UM’s Brienne Minor has won her last 12 completed matches (10 in straight sets)
- UM’s Chiara Lommer has only finished 1 of her last 7 matches
- UM’s Alyvia Jones has won 10 of her last 11 completed matches (9 in straight sets)
- UM’s Anna Craciun last lost her last three completed matches and 4 of her last 5
Prediction & Thoughts: Georgia 4-1 – Michigan is a talented team but they aren’t as battle tested as Georgia who played a much tougher conference schedule. I expect they’ll be several matches that will go three sets but Georgia will get it done in the end.
#18 Texas A&M at #8 Vanderbilt (Saturday)
- VU’s Georgia Drummy split her last 6 completed matches
- VU’s Fernanda Contreras has won 4 straight and 5 of her last 6 completed matches
- VU’s Christina Rosca has won 7 of her last 9 matches
- VU’s Amanda Meyer has lost her last 3 completed matches and 4 of her last 5 matches
- VU’s Carolyn Campana has lost 3 of her last 4 completed matches
- VU’s Emily Smith has won 5 of her last 6 matches
- Texas A&M is into the Round of 16 for the 6th time in program history (1-4 in previous 5 R16 matches) – best-ever result was 2013 Finals.
- A&M’s Katya Townsend has won 3 of her last 4 completed matches
- A&M’s Jayci Goldsmith has lost her last 4 completed matches
- A&M’s Tatiana Makarova has won her last 2 matches though split her last 6 matches
- A&M’s Renee McBryde has lost her last 3 matches and 5 of her last 6 matches
- A&M’s Riley McQuaid won her last completed match after losing the previous 5 matches
- A&M’s Lucia Quiterio has won her last 7 completed matches and 10 of her past 11 matches
3/15/2019 at College Station, TX (George P Mitchell Tennis Center)
Singles competition
1. Katya Townsend (TAMU) def. #3 Fernanda Contreras (VANDY) 6-2, 6-0
2. #8 Christina Rosca (VANDY) def. Jayci Goldsmith (TAMU) 6-3, 7-6 (8-6)
3. #67 Georgia Drummy (VANDY) def. Tatiana Makarova (TAMU) 2-6, 7-6 (7-5), 6-0
4. Renee McBryde (TAMU) def. #32 Amanda Meyer (VANDY) 7-6 (7-3), 3-6, 7-5
5. Riley McQuaid (TAMU) def. Carolyn Campana (VANDY) 6-3, 6-3
6. Dorthea Faa-Hviding (TAMU) vs. Summer Dvorak (VANDY) 6-7 (7-9), 4-5, unfinished
Doubles competition
1. Tatiana Makarova/Jayci Goldsmith (TAMU) vs. Emma Kurtz/Emily Smith (VANDY) 5-4, unfinished
2. Renee McBryde/Katya Townsend (TAMU) def. #51 Georgia Drummy/Christina Rosca (VANDY) 6-4
3. Riley McQuaid/Lucia Quiterio (TAMU) def. #30 Summer Dvorak/Fernanda Contreras (VANDY) 6-3
Match Notes:
Vanderbilt 9-4, 4-1; National ranking #4
Texas A&M 15-3, 3-2; National ranking #29
Order of finish: Doubles (3,2); Singles (1,5,2,3,4)
Prediction & Thoughts: Vanderbilt 4-3 – I expect this to be one of the better Round of 16 matches – if Texas A&M can find a way to take the doubles point I think they steal this one and move on to Lake Nona.
#13 USC at #4 South Carolina (Saturday)
- This is South Carolina’s 3rd straight trip to the Round of 16 (8th overall) with SC 2-5 in those previous 7 matches (wins came in 2009 vs. Washington before falling to UGA in QF and 1982 vs. Florida before losing to USF in QF)
- South Carolina has won 12 straight matches
- S Carolina’s Ingrid Martins has won her last 7 completed matches and 15 of her last 16
- S Carolina’s Paige Cline has won 4 straight and 11 of her last 12 completed matches
- S. Carolina’s Mia Horvit has won her last 8 completed matches and 12 of her last 13 completed matches
- S. Carolina’s Megan Davies has split her last 4 completed matches
- S. Carolina’s Silvia Chinellato has dropped her last 2 completed matches after winning her previous 6
- S. Carolina’s Rachel Rohrabacher has split her last 4 completed matches
- S. Carolina’s Kennedy Wicker has won 3 of her last 4 completed matches
- USC is back in the Round of 16 for the first time in 4 years (made semifinals)
- USC’s Rianna Valdes and Angela Kulikov have won 10 of their last 11 completed matches at No. 1 doubles
- USC’s Salma Ewing’s last 5 matches have gone unfinished (last two completed matches were losses to Wash St & Pepperdine)
- USC’s Angela Kulikov has won her last 5 completed matches
- USC’s Ana Neffa has split her last 4 matches
- USC’s Rianna Valdes has split her last 6 matches
- USC’s Dani Willson has won her last 2 completed matches and 6 of her last 8 matches
- USC’s Becca Weissmann has lost her last 5 completed matches (last win March 8 vs. Ariz St)
- USC’s Constance Branstine has lost her last two completed matches and 3 of her last 5
Jan. 21, 2019 | Melbourne, Australia
Doubles Competition
(1) #42 Kulikov/Valdes (USC) vs. Chinellato/Davies (SC) 6-1
(2) Cline/Rohrbacher (SC) def. Weissmann/Willson (USC) – 7-6 (5)
(3) Horvit/Wicker (SC) def. Ewing/Neffa (USC) – 6-4
Order of finish: 1, 3, 2
South Carolina wins doubles point.
Singles Competition
(1) #20 Salma Ewing (USC) vs. #25 Paige Cline (SC) 7-5, 4-6, 5-2 susp.
(2) Angela Kulikov (USC) def. #69 Mia Horvit (SC) 0-6, 6-4, 7-5*
(3) Rianna Valdes (USC) def. Megan Davies (SC) 1-6, 6-1, 6-4
(4) Becca Weissmann (USC) vs. Silvia Chinellato (SC) 3-6, 6-2, 5-4 susp.
(5) #87 Ana Neffa (USC) vs. Rachel Rohrbacher (SC) 6-3, 5-7, 6-3
(6) #99 Danielle Willson (USC) def. Kennedy Wicker (SC) 6-3, 6-1
Order of finish: 6, 3, 5, 2*
#12 NC State at #5 Duke (Friday)
- Duke is undefeated at home and has defeated every team on its schedule except North Carolina (3 losses)
- Duke’s Kaitlyn McCarthy and Meible Chi have only lost 1 time in doubles
- Duke’s Maria Mateas has lost her last 2 completed matches and 3 of her last 4
- Duke’s Meible Chi has won 6 of her last 7 completed matches
- Duke’s Kelly Chen has won her last 6 completed matches
- Duke’s Kaitlyn McCarthy has won her last 2 matches after losing the previous 3
- Duke’s Ellyse Hamlin has won her last 7 completed matches and 14 of her last 15 (12 in straight sets)
- Duke’s Margaryta Bilokin has won 8 of her last 9 matches
- NC State is making its first-ever appearance in the Round of 16
- NCST’s Anna Rogers won her last match after losing her previous 4
- NCST’s Alana Smith has won 4 of her last 5 matches
- NCST’s Bianca Moldovan has split her last 4 completed matches
- NCST’s Adriana Reami has won her last 2 completed matches and 3 of her last 4
- NCST’s Liz Norman has lost 4 of her last 5 completed matches
- NCST’s Amanda Rebol has won 3 of her last 5 completed matches
Apr 10, 2019 at Durham, N.C. (Ambler Tennis Stadium)
Singles competition
1. #13 Maria Mateas (DU) def. #8 Anna Rogers (ST) 6-1, 6-2
2. #93 Alana Smith (ST) def. #32 Kelly Chen (DU) 2-6, 6-4, 7-5
3. Ellyse Hamlin (DU) def. #110 Adriana Reami (ST) 3-6, 6-2, 6-2
4. Kaitlyn McCarthy (DU) def. Liz Norman (ST) 6-4, 6-4
5. Margaryta Bilokin (DU) def. Bianca Moldovan (ST) 6-1, 6-0
6. Amanda Rebol (ST) def. Hannah Zhao (DU) 2-6, 6-3, 6-4
Doubles competition
1. #9 Anna Rogers/Alana Smith (ST) def. #81 Kelly Chen/Ellyse Hamlin (DU) 6-4
2. #23 Meible Chi/Kaitlyn McCarthy (DU) def. Adriana Reami/Claudia Wiktorin (ST) 6-2
3. Maria Mateas/Margaryta Bilokin (DU) def. Bianca Moldovan/Liz Norman (ST) 6-3
Match Notes:
NC State 21-5, 10-3; National ranking #9
Duke 19-2, 11-1; National ranking #4
Order of finish: Doubles (2,1,3); Singles (5,1,4,3,6,2)
#14 Kansas at #3 Stanford (Friday)
- Stanford has won 19 straight matches
- Stanford’s Caroline Lampl is undefeated at 20-0 (hasn’t dropped a set since March 30 vs. USC)
- Stanford’s Michaela Gordon has won her last 7 completed matches and 11 of her last 12
- Stanford’s Melissa Lord lost her last match after winning her previous 11 (10 in straight sets)
- Stanford’s Emily Arbuthnott has won 13 of her last 14 completed matches
- Stanford’s Janice Shin has won her last 4 completed matches and 12 of her last 14
- Stanford’s Emma Higuchi lost her last completed match but won 12 of the previous 13
- Kansas has won 10 straight matches
- KU’s last Round of 16 appearance was in 1998 (lost to Georgia 5-3)
- KU’s best-ever NCAA finish was 1994 (def. Arizona State 5-4 in R16; lost to Cal 5-3 in QF)
- KU’s has used the same doubles lineup in all 25 matches & won the doubles point in 13 straight matches
- KU’s Janet Koch and Nina Khmelnitckaia are 17-1 at No. 1 doubles (9 wins over ranked opponents)
- KU’s Anastasia Rychagova has won her last 5 completed matches though 4 of her last 5 overall matches have gone unfinished
- KU’s Janet Koch has lost her last 4 completed matches after winning her previous 5
- KU’s Plobrung Plipuech has won 5 of her last 6 completed matches
- KU’s Sofia Smagina has won 10 of her last 11 completed matches
- KU’s Nina Khmelnitckaia lost her last match but had won 10 of her previous 11 matches
- KU’s Maria Toran Ribes has won her last 6 matches
#23 UCF at #6 Pepperdine (Friday)
- Pepperdine is in the Round of 16 for the 4th year in a row (19th overall) advancing to the quarterfinals 6 times
- PU’s Ashley Lahey has won 11 of her last 13 completed matches
- PU’s Adrijana Lekaj has won 4 of her last 5 completed matches
- PU’s Jessica Failla has won her last 7 completed matches
- PU’s Dzina Milovanovic has won 10 of her last 11 completed matches
- PU’s Daria Kuczer has won 8 of her last 9 completed matches with 10 unfinished matches in the middle
- PU’s Anastasia Iamachkine has won her last 14 completed matches (12 in straight sets)
- Evgeniya Levashova is currently ranked No. 16 in the ITA singles rankings however she left Pepperdine in February and will be transferring to UCF next season
- UCF is making its first-ever appearance in the Round of 16
- UCF’s Valeriya Zeleva has won 4 of her last 5 completed matches
- UCF’s Ksenia Kuznetsova lost her last match but had won the previous 3
- UCF’s Rebeka Stolmar has won 14 of her last 15 completed matches (13 in straight sets)
- UCF’s Marie Mattel has won 4 of her last 5 completed matches
- UCF’s Natalia Serrano has won 14 of her last 15 completed matches (12 in straight sets)
- UCF’s Nandini Sharma has won her last 5 completed matches (all in straight sets)
#15 Oklahoma State at #2 North Carolina (Saturday)
- North Carolina is a perfect 30-0 in doubles
- UNC’s Makenna Jones has won her last 7 completed matches
- UNC’s Alexa Graham has won 4 straight matches since dropping her only match of the year (GT’s Kenya Jones)
- UNC’s Sara Daavettila has won 10 of her last 11 completed matches
- UNC’s Cameron Morra has won her last 8 completed matches
- UNC’s Jessie Aney lost her last completed match but had won the previous 7
- UNC’s Alexandra Sanford has won her last 5 completed matches
- Oklahoma State is into the Round of 16 for the 4th time in the last 5 years
- OSU’s Katie Stresnakova has lost her last 3 completed matches
- OSU’s Lisa Marie Rioux lost her last match after winning the previous 6
- OSU’s Marina Guinart has won 11 of her last 12 completed matches
- OSU’s Bunyawi Thamchaiwat has won her last 6 matches and 13 of her last 14
- OSU’s Sofia Blanco has won 14 of her last 16 completed matches
- OSU’s Catherine Gulihur has lost her last 2 matches after winning the previous 7
First Round – Friday, Feb. 8, 2019 (ITA National Women’s Team Indoor Championship)
Singles Competition
1. #6 Makenna Jones (UNC) def. #22 Katie Stresnakova (OKST) 7-6 (3), 6-4
2. #15 Sara Daavettila (UNC) def. #120 Bunyawi Thamshaiwat (OKST) 6-3, 7-5
3. #7 Alexa Graham (UNC) def. Lisa Marie Rioux (OKST) 6-2, 5-7, 6-3
4. #20 Cameron Morra (UNC) vs. #66 Marina Guinart (OKST) 6-4, 4-4, unfinished
5. #104 Alle Sanford (UNC) vs. Catherine Gulihur (OKST) 6-4, 2-5, unfinished
6. Jessie Aney (UNC) def. Tamara Arnold (OKST) 6-3, 6-3
Match Notes
Doubles Not Played
Order of Finish: Singles (2, 1, 3, 6)
#10 Washington at #7 UCLA (Friday)
- UCLA is into the Round of 16 for the second year in a row and 18th time in the last 20 years
- UCLA’s Jada Hart has split her last 4 completed matches
- UCLA’s Elysia Bolton has won 8 of her last 10 completed matches
- UCLA’s Ayan Broomfield has split her last 4 completed matches
- UCLA’s Alaina Miller has lost 4 of her last 5 completed matches
- UCLA’s Abi Altick has won her last 2 completed matches after losing the previous 3
- UCLA’s Gabby Andrews has won her last 6 completed matches
- Washington is making its 5th appearance in the Round of 16 (first since 2009) – best all-time finishes were the Quarterfinals in 2004 and 2001
- UW’s Stacey Fung has won her last 3 completed matches with 5 unfinished matches in the middle
- UW’s Vanessa Wong has won her last 5 matches and 6 of her last 7
- UW’s Katarina Kopcalic has lost her last 4 completed matches
- UW’s Natsuho Arakawa has won her last 3 completed matches and 4 of her last 5
- UW’s Sedona Gallagher has won 10 of her last 11 completed matches
- UW’s Nika Zupancic has won 10 of her last 11 completed matches
Regular Season Meeting
#2 UCLA 4, #3 Washington 3
2019 PAC-12 Semifinals // Fri., April 26, 2019 // Weil Tennis Academy, Ojai, Calif.
Singles Competition
1. Stacey Fung, WASH def. Jada Hart, UCLA – 1-6, 7-6 (5), 6-1
2. Vanessa Wong, WASH def. Elysia Bolton, UCLA – 5-7, 7-6 (7), 6-2
3. Ayan Broomfield, UCLA def. Katarina Kopcalic, WASH – 3-6, 7-6 (5), 6-1
4. Natsuho Arakawa, WASH def. Alaina Miller, UCLA – 7-5, 6-4
5. Abi Altick, UCLA def. Sedona Gallagher, WASH – 6-4, 6-1
6. Gabby Andrews, UCLA def. Nika Zupancic, WASH – 6-4, 6-3
Doubles Competition
1. Stacey Fung/Nika Zupancic, WASH v. Gabby Andrews/Ayan Broomfield, UCLA – 3-2 unf.
2. Elysia Bolton/Jada Hart, UCLA def. Vanessa Wong/Zoey Weil, WASH – 6-1
3. Abi Altick/Taylor Johnson, UCLA def. Kenadi Hance/Natsuho Arakawa, WASH – 6-2
Match Notes
Order of finish: Doubles (2,3); Singles (5,6,4,1,2,3)
#10 UCLA 4, #15 Washington 1
4/13/2019 at Seattle, WA (Nordstrom Tennis Center)
Singles competition
1. #98 Stacey Fung (WASH) vs. #38 Jada Hart (UCLA) 6-1, 2-6, 3-4, unfinished
2. #25 Elysia Bolton (UCLA) def. Vanessa Wong (WASH) 6-4, 6-4
3. Ayan Broomfield (UCLA) def. Natsuho Arakawa (WASH) 6-3, 3-6, 6-0
4. Sedona Gallagher (WASH) def. #122 Abi Altick (UCLA) 7-6 (7-5), 6-2
5. Nika Zupancic (WASH) vs. Alaina Miller (UCLA) 6-2, 3-6, 3-5, unfinished
6. Gabby Andrews (UCLA) def. Kenadi Hance (WASH) 6-2, 7-5
Doubles competition
1. #5 Gabby Andrews/Ayan Broomfield (UCLA) def. #26 Stacey Fung/Nika Zupancic (WASH) 6-3
2. #12 Elysia Bolton/Jada Hart (UCLA) def. Vanessa Wong/Zoey Weil (WASH) 6-3
3. Kenadi Hance/Natsuho Arakawa (WASH) def. Taylor Johnson/Alaina Miller (UCLA) 6-3
Match Notes
UCLA 15-6; National ranking #10
Washington 17-3; National ranking #15
Order of finish: Doubles (2,3,1); Singles (2,4,6,3)
Thanks, Bobby. In general, the UTRs seem lower this year compared to last year at this time–there were several women with scores in the 12s or 11.9s last year, while this year, Jokic seems highest at 11.89. The scores look lower across lineups on average, too, not just at the top. (There are exceptions, of course.) Any idea why that is? Did UTR change something in how the calculation is done?
Bobby:
Couldn't you find one upset in any of the quarterfinal matchups? You picked the 1-8 seeds for both men and women. The top 8 advancing is rare if not unheard of.
CJ, now that you mention it the UTRs definitely seem down. At some point over the last year or two I remember UTR making some kind of tweak that lowered the UTRs some but I can't remember when it was.
Here is a comparison of the UTR Power 6s of the top four seeds – Georgia is slightly higher than Vandy was last year but the other slots are a good half a point lower.
2018:
1. Vandy 69.3
2. UNC 69.0
3. Duke 69.6
4. Ga Tech 68.5
2019:
1. UGA 69.5
2. UNC 68.5
3. Stanford 68.3
4. S Car 67.9
Top 5 Individual UTRs 2019
Kate Fahey (Michigan) – 11.91
Katarina Jokic (Georgia) – 11.89
Ingrid Martins (South Carolina) – 11.74
Vivian Wolff (Georgia) – 11.69
Kelly Chen (Duke) – 11.68
Top 5 Individual UTRs 2018
Anna Danilina (Florida) – 12.44
Bianca Turati (Texas) – 12.28
Astra Sharma (Vanderbilt) – 12.21
Estela Perez-Somarriba (Miami FL) – 12.08
Michaela Gordon (Stanford) – 12.05
MS, I didn't even realize that until you pointed it out. I may be putting too much stock in the home court advantage but I think in many of these tight matches the crowd and the fact that one team didn't travel may be enough to put the home team over the top.
Originally when I filled out my bracket I had Texas beating Vandy in the Round of 16 and I think Texas A&M has a good chance against Vandy but I just couldn't pull the trigger – I think the main reason was because of how much A&M struggled to get past Rice in the first round. The other match I went back and forth on was UCF/Pepperdine – I was going to pick UCF but I picked Pepperdine before the tournament started so I stuck with it. I wouldn't at all be surprised if one of both of those lower seeds advanced.