Between now and the start of the 1st round on May 8th I’ll preview 2 regionals per day. I’ll start off with the Oklahoma and UCLA regionals and finish with the Virginia Tech and Baylor regionals. I’ll list the projected starting lineups with current player rankings and current Universal Tennis Rankings and I’ll also make my predictions on each.
The doubles point plays a large roll between winning and losing and it seems to mean that much more when tournament time rolls around. It’s interesting to see a pair of top 20 teams in the bottom 4 in winning percentage.
| Team | W | L | PCT |
| 2. Baylor | 23 | 2 | 92.0% |
| 3. Virginia | 23 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Stanford | 20 | 3 | 87.0% |
| 6. Texas A&M | 21 | 4 | 84.0% |
| Minnesota | 22 | 5 | 81.5% |
| South Florida | 20 | 5 | 80.0% |
| 11. Ohio State | 26 | 7 | 78.8% |
| San Diego | 21 | 6 | 77.8% |
| Denver | 20 | 6 | 76.9% |
| South Carolina State | 13 | 4 | 76.5% |
| Mississippi State | 19 | 6 | 76.0% |
| 12. Wake Forest | 21 | 7 | 75.0% |
| UTSA | 18 | 6 | 75.0% |
| Columbia | 14 | 5 | 73.7% |
| FGCU | 16 | 6 | 72.7% |
| Notre Dame | 18 | 7 | 72.0% |
| 10. Duke | 20 | 8 | 71.4% |
| Florida State | 20 | 8 | 71.4% |
| Wiliam & Mary | 20 | 8 | 71.4% |
| 13. North Carolina | 22 | 9 | 71.0% |
| Louisville | 22 | 9 | 71.0% |
| 16. UCLA | 17 | 7 | 70.8% |
| New Mexico | 17 | 7 | 70.8% |
| East Tennessee State | 17 | 7 | 70.8% |
| Drake | 21 | 9 | 70.0% |
| LSU | 18 | 8 | 69.2% |
| Marist | 13 | 6 | 68.4% |
| 8. Georgia | 17 | 8 | 68.0% |
| Tennessee | 17 | 8 | 68.0% |
| Troy | 20 | 10 | 66.7% |
| 4. Illinois | 19 | 10 | 65.5% |
| Harvard | 17 | 9 | 65.4% |
| Winthrop | 15 | 8 | 65.2% |
| NC State | 18 | 10 | 64.3% |
| San Diego State | 16 | 9 | 64.0% |
| Cal | 16 | 10 | 61.5% |
| Eastern Kentucky | 14 | 9 | 60.9% |
| Navy | 18 | 12 | 60.0% |
| Texas A&M CC | 13 | 9 | 59.1% |
| Northwestern | 17 | 12 | 58.6% |
| 7. USC | 15 | 11 | 57.7% |
| Vanderbilt | 15 | 11 | 57.7% |
| Boise State | 17 | 13 | 56.7% |
| 15. Virginia Tech | 13 | 10 | 56.5% |
| 5. TCU | 14 | 11 | 56.0% |
| Idaho | 15 | 12 | 55.6% |
| Florida | 12 | 10 | 54.5% |
| UC Santa Barbara | 13 | 11 | 54.2% |
| 1. Oklahoma | 14 | 12 | 53.8% |
| Princeton | 14 | 12 | 53.8% |
| Georgia Tech | 14 | 12 | 53.8% |
| Tulsa | 15 | 13 | 53.6% |
| Oklahoma State | 12 | 11 | 52.2% |
| 14. Ole Miss | 13 | 12 | 52.0% |
| Alabama State | 14 | 13 | 51.9% |
| Pepperdine | 13 | 13 | 50.0% |
| St. John’s | 11 | 11 | 50.0% |
| Buffalo | 11 | 11 | 50.0% |
| Bryant | 9 | 9 | 50.0% |
| New Mexico State | 11 | 11 | 50.0% |
| Texas Tech | 8 | 9 | 47.1% |
| 9. Texas | 11 | 13 | 45.8% |
| George Washington | 11 | 14 | 44.0% |
| Green Bay | 11 | 14 | 44.0% |
There are at least 9 sets of brothers on the rosters of teams playing in the NCAA’s:
Jared and Aron Hiltzik (Illinois)
Terrance and Terrell Whitehurst (Florida State)
Michael and Casey Kay (Georgia Tech)
Lucas and Leonard Gerch (Oklahoma State)
Robert and Elio Livi (St. John’s)
Soren (Texas) and Esben Hess-Olesen (UNC)
Marco (Florida St) and Diego Nunez (East Tennessee State)
Benjamin (Florida St) and Courtney Lock (Louisville)
Billy (Notre Dame) and Thomas Pecor (Navy)
In case you are wondering TCU’s Guillermo Nunez is not related to Marco and Diego.
Florida State’s #3 singles player Marco Nunez started his collegiate career at Georgia and actually played at #6 singles in Georgia’s 2013 NCAA semifinal match against Virginia. If Florida State and Georgia both win their 1st round matches they’d meet in the 2nd round in Athens.
Other guys playing in the NCAAs that started their collegiate careers with another team:
LSU’s #1 Jordan Daigle played at #6 in several matches for Virginia last year
Wake Forest’s #2 Romain Bogaerts played #1 for Mississippi State two years ago.
San Diego’s #3 Jordan Angus played at #3 for Mississippi State last year
Denver’s #4 David Fox played at #2 Middle Tennessee State last year
Florida Gulf Coast’s #1 Jordi Vives played a handful of matches at #6 for USC in 2012.
Florida Gulf Coast’s #2 Andres Alfonzo played at #6 for TCU last year.
Cal’s #4 Oskar Wikberg played at #1 for Wisconsin last year.
San Diego State’s #4 Marko Goles-Babic played in 4 matches for Ohio State last year.
Drake’s #3 Matt Frost played at #1 for Southern Miss two years ago.
Drake’s #4 Ravi Patel played #4/#5 for South Florida two years ago.
UTSA’s #3 Tito Moreiras played in 5 matches for Texas A&M last year.
Illinois’s #6-#8 Blake Bazarnik played #3 for Vanderbilt three years ago.
UCSB’s #3 Morgan Mays played a few matches at #5 and #6 for Wake Forest two years ago.
ETSU’s #5 Sebastian Yllera played a few matches at #6 for Tennessee two years ago.
Texas’s Michael Riechmann who plays #3 doubles played at #1 singles for Brown two years ago.
Probably a few more that I’m overlooking – if you can think of some let me know.
# of regular season rematches in the 1st round: 6 – Northwestern/Harvard, Florida State/Troy, Illinois/UWGB, Louisville/Drake, San Diego/San Diego State, South Florida/Boise State.
# of potential regular season rematches in the 2nd round: 6 – Duke/Tennessee, USC/San Diego, Ohio State/Notre Dame, TCU/Tulsa, UCLA/Texas Tech, Oklahoma/Northwestern.
UCLA is the only team to make it to the round of 16 every year since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1999. Baylor has made it 15 of the last 16 years (2001), Georgia has made it 14 of 16 years (2000/2003), Illinois and Florida have made it 13 of the last 16 years.
16 years of history tells us that a top 16 seed will lose next weekend – at least 1 has every year since the 1998-99 season.
# of Top 16 seeds to lose before the Round of 16 broken down by year:
2014 (2) – Cal def. #8 Texas A&M 4-3, Tennessee def. #11 Duke 4-2
2013 (2) – Memphis def. #6 Ole Miss 4-2, Denver upset #15 Florida 4-3 (1st Round)
2012 (2) – Baylor def. #9 Mississippi State 4-3, Tulsa def. #10 Oklahoma 4-1
2011 (2) – #36 Tulsa def. #13 Texas 4-3, Illinois def. #16 North Carolina 4-1*
2010 (2) – Wisconsin def. #13 Illinois 4-1, Oklahoma def. #14 Texas Tech 4-2**
2009 (3) – Wake Forest def. #11 Kentucky 4-2, Boise St def. #14 Alabama 4-3, Miami def. #10 Florida 4-3
2008 (1) – Oklahoma State def. #11 Tulsa 4-3***
2007 (3) – Florida def. #16 Florida State 4-3, Alabama def. #14 Duke 4-3, NC State def. #6 UNC 4-0
2006 (3) – Notre Dame def. #16 Texas A&M 4-2, Washington def. #12 VCU 4-0, Florida def. #15 Oklahoma State 4-0
2005 (2) – Florida State def. #12 Kentucky 4-2, South Carolina def. #13 Oklahoma State 4-3
2004 (7) – Vanderbilt def. #8 Ole Miss 4-1, Texas A&M def. #13 VCU 4-0, TCU def. #12 Kentucky 4-2, Clemson def. #5 Duke 4-3, Arkansas def. #15 Tennessee 4-1, Rice def. #14 LSU 4-0, Ohio State def. #11 North Carolina 4-3
2003 (2) – Ohio State def. #13 Kentucky 4-3, Oklahoma State def. #11 Minnesota 4-2
2002 (2) – Washington def. #5 Stanford 4-3, Duke def. #10 California 4-3****
2001 (2) – Mississippi State def. #10 Illinois 4-2, USC def. #12 Ole Miss 4-3
2000 (3) – San Diego State def. #3 Pepperdine 4-2, VCU def. #14 Ole Miss 4-3, USC def. #13 Fresno State 4-1
1999 (3) – Virginia Tech def. #16 Alabama 4-3, Fresno State def. #12 USC 4-1, Mississippi State def. #11 Tennessee 4-3
* 2011 – Illinois was actually ranked #17 and UNC was ranked #18.
** 2010 – Oklahoma hosted regional even though Texas Tech was seeded
*** 2008 – Tulsa hosted NCAAs that year – didn’t help attendance when they lost early
**** 2002 – Duke hosted regional even though Cal was seeded
#3 seeds to advance to Round of 16: Tulsa (2011), South Carolina (2005), Washington (2002), San Diego State (2000), Virginia Tech (1999)
#4 seeds to advance to Round of 16: None
Thanks for the update. Oklahoma loses one senior that starts in Dane Webb and Nick Papac also. Just assuming that he would have two years of eligibility remaining.
Talked to Michael in Boca. Finishing school at Duke this summer. Going to Oklahoma for grad school, and to play
Oklahoma's #9 Austin Siegel started out at Louisville. Was Oklahoma's #5 last year.
Texas's #3 Adrien Berkowicz played for Tyler Junior College and Vincennes University<br />
I haven't heard or seen anything about him. Maybe someone else has?
Any update on Michael Redlicki?
If you want to extend to brother-sister, then the sister of Ga Tech's Michael and Casey Kay is Whitney Kay for North Carolina.
Maybe that'll be a project of mine for the off-season.
Any chance you'll do a similar analysis of the women's tournament ?<br />I'll bet there have been fewer instances of non hosting teams making the round of 16
Yeah that was an obvious one – not sure how I forgot him.
Romain Bogaerts (Wake Forest) started at Miss State
Ravi was from South Florida, Matt Frost from Southern Miss.
5 of the 6 Big XII teams wins doubles less than 60% of the time. Only Baylor consistently wins.
wait so only 1 #1 seed has ever lost?
From USF for Patel correct?
Michael Riechmann, who plays dubs for Texas, played at Brown for two years. He played #1 singles his sophomore year and had a win over Harvard's Denis Nguyen, who made semis of NCAAs last year.
Frost and Patel both transferred to Drake in 2013 to play for the Bulldogs
Not in the regionals though. Tulsa was only the final 16 spot. But 7 of the top 16 didn't make it to the sweet 16.
Played in Tulsa so maybe the winds were whistling that year – don't really remember that year too much.
NC State was ranked #27 and made the quarters in 2007. <br />Florida State was ranked #19 and made the quarters in 2005. <br />There were 3 that made the quarters in 2004 – #26 Vanderbilt, #31 Clemson, #22 Ohio State<br /><br />Ultimate cinderella was VCU in 2000. They were ranked #19 and made it to the semifinals – interesting thing happened in their quarterfinal match against Tennessee – Vols had 2 guys retire with cramps within 5 minutes of each other to end the match.
wow! what the heck happened in 2004? Extreme outlier. 7! The 2nd most has only 3
how many non #1 seeds have made it to the quarterfinals or further? The true cinderella.
Yep that's a good one.
Illinois #6 (sometimes) Blake Bazarnik started at vanderbilt