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2015 NCAA Quarterfinal Preview,
Baylor,
Georgia,
North Carolina,
Oklahoma Sooners,
TCU,
Texas A&M Aggies,
USC,
VirginiaThe stage is set for Quarterfinal Saturday and it should be a good one with 7 of the top 8 seeds still alive. It wouldn’t surprise me to see all 4 matches finish with a 4-3 score and I’d actually be pretty surprised if at least 1 higher seed didn’t go down.
For those that didn’t see the notice tomorrow’s matches have been moved up 2 hours to try and stay ahead of the rain so tune in at 11am eastern for 1st serve.
Let’s dive in and get started:
[1] Oklahoma (27-2) vs. [8] Georgia (24-4) – Saturday 11am est.- Oklahoma is coming off a 4-3 win over #16 UCLA in a match that saw the Sooners win the doubles point and sweep the bottom 3 while Georgia beat #9 Texas 4-1 in a match where the Bulldogs took the doubles point and won at 2, 3, and 5. These teams are very familiar with each other because Oklahoma came to Georgia 3 times in a 4 month period to play in the Southern Intercollegiates, the Bulldog Scramble, and the MLK Invitational in Atlanta. In case you didn’t know, OU Head Coach John Roddick is a Georgia graduate (98) and was also an assistant there from 2000 to 2002. OU’s Assistant Coach Bo Hodge is also a Georgia graduate (04) and was part of the 2001 National Championship Team. This will be the 3rd time in 6 years that these two have met in the NCAA Tournament with Georgia beating OU in the 2010 Quarterfinals and the 2013 Round of 16.
FYI, the number beside the player’s school is the player’s Universal Tennis Rating as of May 15th. For more details about UTR check out their website.
The UTR Power 6 is the combined UTRs of the starting 6 (rounded to a whole #). An individual win/loss to anyone with a UTR difference of 1.0 or greater would be considered an upset.
Doubles Records: Oklahoma 16-13, Georgia 20-8
UTR Starting 6 Power Rating: Oklahoma 87, Georgia 85
Projected Singles Lineups with UTRs in ( ):
1. #1 Axel Alvarez (OU 15.18) vs. #24 Wayne Montgomery (UGA 14.61)
2. #7 Andrew Harris (OU 15.05) vs. #30 Austin Smith (UGA 14.31)
3. #44 Dane Webb (OU 14.21) vs. #31 Nathan Pasha (UGA 14.38)
4. #103 Alex Ghilea (OU 14.41) vs. Ben Wagland (UGA 13.48)
5. Spencer Papa (OU 13.90) vs. Nick Wood (UGA 13.85)
6. Florin Bragusi (OU 13.64) vs. Paul Oosterbaan (UGA 13.84)
Others who could play:
Jose Salazar (OU 13.85), Peter Bertran (UGA 13.59)
Dual-Match Singles Records – # in ( ) is W-L vs. ranked:
1. Alvarez 23-1 (18-1) vs.
Montgomery 14-3 (5-3)2. Harris 18-5 (15-5) vs.
Smith 15-6 (8-6)3. Webb 15-7 (6-7) vs.
Pasha 15-5 (2-4)4. Ghilea 19-4 (2-2) vs.
Wagland 10-6 (1-3)5. Papa 12-9 (0-7) vs.
Wood 16-6 (1-4)6. Bragusi 10-3 vs.
Oosterbaan 13-3 (0-1)
#1 singles – Alvarez had his 23 match winning streak snapped in a 6-4, 6-4 loss to UCLA’s #3 Mackenzie McDonald while Montgomery has won 7 in a row and was close to an 8th when his match with #4 Soren Hess-Olesen was halted with Montgomery up 5-3 (40-40) in the 3rd. Montgomery defeated Alvarez 1-6, 6-0, 6-3 back in September in the Southern Intercollegiate semifinals though that match was almost 9 months ago. This should be a good one with lots of long rallies and I think it goes 3 sets by I don’t see Axel dropping a 2nd straight. Prediction: Alvarez (OU) in 3
#2 singles – Harris had his 8 match winning streak snapped in a 7-6, 7-6 loss to UCLA’s #36 Dennis Mkrtchian while Smith has split his last 4 after beating Texas’s #42 Lloyd Glasspool 6-3, 7-6. There was some talk that Harris was having some back trouble but I assume he’ll be good to go after getting a 48 hour rest. Smith would have to play his best match this year to come out on top but I think Harris will be just a little too strong. Prediction: Harris (OU) in 2
#3 singles – Webb has dropped 6 of his last 9 after going down 6-7, 6-2, 6-4 to UCLA’s #118 Martin Redlicki while Pasha has won 4 of his last 5 after beating Texas’s #54 Adrien Berkowicz 6-3, 6-2. Pasha beat Webb 7-6, 6-4 back in January in the MLK Invitational in Atlanta. This will be a hard fought dual between a pair of seniors and a month or so ago I would have taken Webb in 2 but he’s gone into a tailspin and Pasha is starting to come to life. Prediction: Pasha (UGA) in 2
#4 singles – Ghilea has won 5 of his last 7 and 10 of 12 after he rolled over UCLA’s Karue Sell 6-3, 6-4 while Wagland had his 7-match winning streak stopped with a 6-3, 6-4 loss to Texas’s George Goldhoff. The “Machine” isn’t a guy that’s going to lay down and while Wagland will hang in there I think Ghilea will have a tad too much for him. Prediction: Ghilea (OU) in 2
#5 singles – Papa has won 2 in a row after he beat UCLA’s Austin Rapp 6-3, 6-4 while Wood has won 5 of his last 6 after he came from behind in both sets to beat Texas’s Nick Naumann 7-6, 7-5. This should be an interesting matchup with both guys likely to stay behind the baseline and hit forehands all day. Wood isn’t going to be able to count on Papa checking out like Naumann and I think Wood hangs in there mentally and gets it done in a 3rd set. Prediction: Wood (UGA) in 3
#6 singles – Bragusi has won 3 of his last 5 after he clinched yesterday’s match with a 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 win over UCLA’s Joseph DiGiulio while Oosterbaan has won 12 in a row though his match yesterday against Texas’s Clement Homs went unfinished with Oosterbaan up 2-1 in the 3rd. If Oosterbaan is going to win this one he better make sure it’s not the last match to finish because nobody beats Florin Bragusi in a 3-3 match. I think Oosterbaan’s serve will be popping and he’ll run his winning streak to 13 with a somewhat surprising win. Prediction: Oosterbaan (UGA) in 3
I’m going to take Georgia in doubles with the Bulldogs taking #1 and #2. I like Alvarez, Harris, and Ghilea at 1, 2, and 4 for OU but I like Pasha, Wood, and Oosterbaan at 3, 5, and 6 for Georgia. I think the Wood/Papa match will be the last one on and it should be some high drama. I’m going with a Saturday Stunner – Prediction: Georgia 4-3
[5] TCU (24-7) vs. [13] North Carolina (24-10) – Saturday 11am est – TCU is coming off a 4-0 whippin’ of #12 Wake Forest while North Carolina clawed its way past #4 Illinois 4-3. These teams met last year in the regular season with UNC winning 4-3 when Brayden Schnur outlasted Nick Chappell 6-3 in the 3rd in the decider. The Schnur/Chappell matchup at #1 will be the only rematch. UNC is back in the quarterfinals for the 2nd year in a row and for the 3rd time in program history. TCU is back in the quarterfinals for the 9th time in program history though it’ll be the first time since 2001.
Doubles Records: TCU 17-11, North Carolina 25-9
UTR Starting 6 Power Rating: TCU 84, North Carolina 84
Projected Singles Lineups with UTRs in ( ):
1. #49 Nick Chappell (TCU 14.03) vs. #12 Brayden Schnur (NC 14.63)
2. #59 Guillermo Nuez (TCU 14.11) vs. #28 Ronnie Schneider (NC 14.36)
3. #39 Cameron Norrie (TCU 14.35) vs. #73 Brett Clark (NC 13.85)
4. Facundo Lugones (TCU 13.99) vs. Jack Murray (NC 14.17)
5. Arnau Dachs (TCU 14.13) vs. Robert Kelly (NC 13.77)
6. Will Stein (TCU 13.51) vs. Esben Hess-Olesen (UNC 13.67)
Dual-Match Singles Records – # in ( ) is W-L vs. ranked:
Chappell 11-6 (4-6) vs. Schnur 10-7 (5-7)
Nunez 20-1 (6-1) vs. Schneider 18-10 (7-10)
Norrie 16-8 (5-7) vs. Clark 20-7 (6-5)
Lugones 16-5 (2-1) vs. Murray 19-7 (2-5)
Dachs 17-5 (3-4) vs. Kelly 23-5 (1-2)
Stein 13-7 (0-2) vs. Hess-Olesen 5-4 (1-2)
1. Chappell has dropped 4 of his last 5 completed matches though he trailed Wake’s #6 Noah Rubin 6-0, 4-4 before the match was stopped while Schnur has won 6 of 7 including a 7-6, 2-6, 6-2 win over Illinois’s #33 Farris Gosea. Schnur beat Chappell 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 in a dual match last year. Prediction: Schnur (UNC) in 3
2. Nunez has won 5 in a row and is coming off the best win of his young collegiate career after drilling Wake’s #16 Romain Bogaerts 6-3, 6-1 while Schneider won 4 of his last 7 after clinching UNC’s win over Illiniois with a 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 win over #23 Jared Hiltzik. Schneider is tough competitor but Nunez made a believer out of me after he blew out Bogaerts. Prediction: Nunez (TCU) in 3
3. Norrie has won 8 in a row and was leading Wake’s Skander Mansouri 6-2, 4-5 before the match was stopped while Clark has now dropped 2 in a row after falling to Illinois’s #65 Tim Kopinski 4-6, 6-1, 6-0. Clark had won 8 of 9 prior to the 2-match slide. Norrie is playing his best tennis of the year right now and I think he rolls in this one. Prediction: Norrie (TCU) in 2
4. Lugones has won 11 of his last 12 after dispatching Wake’s Jon Ho 6-3, 6-2 while Murray has won 8 of his last 11 though he is coming off a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 loss to Illinois’s #81 Aron Hiltzik. I look for Murray to bounce back and take this one in straights. Prediction: Murray (UNC) in 2
5. Dachs has won 6 in a row and he led Wake’s Christian Seraphim 7-6, 2-1 before the match was halted while Kelly had his 8-match winning streak stopped with a 6-3, 6-2 loss to Illinois’s #74 Aleks Vukic. I think Kelly might be looking at a second straight match because I like Dachs. Prediction: Dachs (TCU) in 3
6. Stein has won 6 of his last 7 and is coming off a 6-2, 6-0 destruction of Wake’s Keivon Tabrizi while Hess-Olesen has won his last 2 after soundly defeating Illinois’s Toshiki Matsuya 6-3, 6-2. Stein has been playing well but it sounds like Hess-Olesen is playing like his old self which spells trouble. Prediction: Hess-Olesen (UNC) in 2
I think the winner of the doubles point will win this match and even though North Carolina has been playing well in doubles i think this TCU team will find way to get it done and will take the point with wins at 2 and 3. I like Nunez, Norrie, and Dachs for TCU and Schnur, Murray, and Hess-Olesen for UNC. I think Nunez will win the decider at #2 to put TCU into the semifinals. Prediction: TCU 4-3
[3] Virginia (26-3) vs. [6] Texas A&M (24-4) – Saturday 3pm est – Virginia is coming off a tough 4-0 win over #17 Columbia that saw the Hoos get challenged in several spots while Texas A&M pulled out a 4-3 thriller over #11 Ohio State. The Aggies are in the quarterfinals for the 2nd time in program history and first time since 2001 while Virginia returns to the quarters for the 11th year in a row.
Doubles Records: Virginia 26-3, Texas A&M 23-5
UTR Starting 6 Power Rating: Virginia 87, Texas A&M 85
Projected Singles Lineups with UTRs in ( ):
1. #8 Ryan Shane (VA 14.88) vs. #47 Jeremy Efferding (TAMU 14.40)
2. #20 Mitchell Frank (VA 14.53) vs. #80 Shane Vinsant (TAMU 14.24)
3. #77 Collin Altamirano (VA 14.72) vs. #84 Arthur Rinderknech (TAMU 14.34)
4. #19 Thai-Son Kwiatkowski (VA 14.77) vs. #78 Harrison Adams (TAMU 13.64)
5. Alexander Ritschard (VA 14.07) vs. #92 AJ Catanzariti (TAMU 14.33)
6. J.C. Aragone (VA 14.08) vs. Jordi Arconada (TAMU 13.68)
Dual-Match Singles Records – # in ( ) is W-L vs. ranked:
1. Shane 19-6 (12-5) vs. Efferding 12-3 (4-3)
2. Frank 16-3 (11-3) vs. Vinsant 8-3 (6-2)
3. Altamirano 18-3 (3-2) vs. Rinderknech 14-4 (1-3)
4. Kwiatkowski 21-3 (1-3) vs. Adams 5-10 (1-6)
5. Ritschard 10-3 (2-1) vs. Catanzariti 20-5 (1-0)
6. Aragone 21-3 (0-1) vs. Arconada 10-4 (0-1)
#1 singles – Shane has won 10 of 12 and is coming off a 6-3, 6-4 win over Columbia’s #17 Winston Lin in a match where Shane had to have his ankle taped after “tweaking” it while Efferding has won 3 in a row after beating Ohio State’s #55 Mikael Torpegaard 7-5, 6-4. It’ll be interesting to see if the ankle gives Shane any trouble because Efferding’s best chance is if Shane isn’t 100%. Prediction: Shane (UVA) in 3
#2 singles – Frank has won 8 of his last 9 completed matches though he’d had 3 in a row go unfinished after he split sets with Columbia’s Dragos Ignat. Vinsant has won 2 in a row after he beat Ohio State’s #50 Chris Diaz 6-4, 6-2. Frank won the only prior meeting 6-2, 6-1 back in 2013. Prediction: Frank (UVA) in 2.
#3 singles – Altamirano has won 3 of his last 5 after being Columbia’s Ashok Narayana 7-6, 6-0 while Rinderknech has won 3 of his last 4 including the match clincher yesterday against Ohio State’s Herkko Pollanen 6-2, 6-7, 6-4. Prediction: DNF with Rinderknech (aTm) leading
#4 singles – Kwiatkowski has won 10 in a row and 14 of his last 15 including a 6-2, 7-6 win over Columbia’s Max Schnur while Adams has won 5 of his last 7 but is coming off a 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 loss to Ohio State’s Hunter Callahan. Prediction: Kwiatkowski (UVA) in 2
#5 singles – Ritschard has won his last 5 but his match against Columbia’s Mike Vermeer went unfinished with Ritschard leading 2-0 in the 3rd. Catanzariti had his 4-match winning streak stopped when he went down 3-6, 7-6, 6-2 to Ohio State’s Kevin Metka though Catanzariti has still won 16 of his last 18. Prediction: Catanzariti (aTm) in 2
#6 singles – Aragone has won 15 in a row though he was trailing Columbia’s Shawn Hadavi 6-2, 5-5 the last time out while Arconada has won 8 of his last 10 completed matches though Jordi went down 7-6, 7-6 to Ohio State’s Ralf Steinbach. Prediction: Aragone (UVA) in 3
I expect this to be a tight match from start to the finish and it’ll start off with Texas A&M taking the doubles point for the 24th time this season with wins at 1 and 3. I’ll go with Shane, Frank, Kwiatkowski, and Aragone in singles for Virginia and Catanzariti for Texas A&M with Rinderknech ahead at 3. If Shane’s ankle isn’t close to 100% I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go down to Efferding. I think Frank and Kwiatkowski are the only semi-locks but everything else is wide open in my opinion. I’ll go with Virginia but not by much. Prediction: Virginia 4-2
[2] Baylor (24-5) vs. [7] #8 USC (24-4) – Saturday 3pm est – Baylor is coming off a tighter than expected 4-1 win over #18 South Florida while USC crushed #10 Duke 4-0. Baylor won the first encounter 4-3 back on March 21st in Indian Wells in a match that had no singles matches go 3 sets which is odd considering how good these teams both are. Baylor has the home court advantage but USC is starting to look really good.
Doubles Records: Baylor 26-2, USC 18-11
UTR Starting 6 Power Rating: Baylor 86, USC 86
#3 Baylor 4, #4 Southern California 3
Mar 21, 2015 at Indian Wells, California (Indian Wells Tennis Garden)
Singles competition
1. #4 Julian Lenz (BU 14.63) def. #8 Yannick Hanfmann (USC 14.92) 6-2, 7-5
2. #20 Roberto Quiroz (USC 14.36) def. #29 Tony Lupieri (BU 14.21) 6-4, 6-3
3. Eric Johnson (USC 14.01) def. #36 Max Tchoutakian (BU 14.15) 6-3, 7-5
4. #35 Jonny Wang (USC 14.18) def. Vince Schneider (BU 13.50) 6-2, 7-5
5. Mate Zsiga (BU 13.86) def. #50 Max de Vroome (USC 14.30) 6-4, 6-4
6. Felipe Rios (BU 13.73) def. #51 Nick Crystal (USC 14.06) 6-2, 6-3
Doubles competition
1. #4 Yannick Hanfmann/Roberto Quiroz (USC) def. #40 Mate Zsiga/Tony Lupieri (BU) 6-4
2. #77 Julian Lenz/Diego Galeano (BU) def. #50 Eric Johnson/Max de Vroome (USC) 7-6 (7-1)
3. Vince Schneider/Felipe Rios (BU) def. Thibault Forget/Nick Crystal (USC) 6-3
Match Notes
Southern California 13-3; National ranking #4
Baylor 14-2; National ranking #3
Order of finish: Doubles (3,1,2); Singles (6,2,3,4,5,1)
Projected Singles Lineups with UTRs in ( ):
1. #2 Julian Lenz (BU 15.07) vs. #15 Yannick Hanfmann (USC 14.49)
2. #35 Tony Lupieri (BU 14.12) vs. #25 Roberto Quiroz (USC 14.51)
3. #58 Max Tchoutakian (BU 14.41) vs. #85 Eric Johnson (USC 14.44)
4. Diego Galeano (BU 13.79) vs. #45 Jonny Wang (USC 14.37)
5. #116 Mate Zsiga (BU 14.19) vs. #94 Max de Vroome (USC 14.16)
6. Felipe Rios (BU 14.17) vs. #61 Nick Crystal (USC 13.92)
Dual-Match Singles Records – # in ( ) is W-L vs. ranked:
1. Lenz 15-4 (12-4) vs. Hanfmann 11-8 (8-8)
2. Lupieri 9-9 (4-9) vs. Quiroz 16-4 (9-4)
3. Tchoutakian 15-8 (4-7) vs. Johnson 20-2 (4-1)
4. Galeano 13-4 (2-2) vs. De Vroome 17-3
5. Zsiga 13-3 (2-2) vs. De Vroome 18-3
6. Rios 20-3 (1-0) vs. Crystal 18-2
#1 singles – Lenz has won 8 of his last 10 completed matches with the 2 losses coming to #1 Axel Alvarez and he’s coming off a 6-3, 7-5 win over #21 Roberto Cid while Hanfmann has now won 2 in a row after drilling #13 Nicolas Alvarez yesterday 6-1, 6-1. Lenz won the first meeting over Hanfmann 6-2, 7-5. Prediction: Hanfmann (USC) in 3
#2 singles – Lupieri has lost his last 4 completed matches and was on the verge of going down against USF’s Sasha Gozun when the match was halted with Gozun up 5-1 in the 3rd. Quiroz has won 9 of his last 10 and picked up a big win over Duke’s #41 Jason Tahir 6-1, 7-5. Quiroz won the first meeting over Lupieri 6-4, 6-3 and I expect a similar scoreline on Saturday. Prediction: Quiroz (USC) in 2
#3 singles – Tchoutakian has split his last 4 after going down 6-3, 6-2 to USF’s Oliver Pramming while Johnson has won 6 in a row and 18 of 19. Johnson’s match against Duke’s #57 Raphael Hemmeler went unfinished with EJ up 6-3, 4-4. Eric Johnson won the first meeting 6-3, 7-5 and I’d be surprised if the result was much different this time. Prediction: Johnson (USC) in 2
#4 singles – Galeano has won his last 6 including a 6-1, 6-2 win over USF’s Ignacio Gonzalez-Muniz while Wang has won 16 in a row and is coming off an unfinished match against Duke’s Bruno Semenzato which had just split sets. Galeano didn’t play in the first meeting against USC due to an injury. Prediction: Galeano (BU) in 3
#5 singles – Zsiga has won 11 of his last 12 completed matches although his match against USF’s Justin Roberts went unfinished with it tied at 1 in the 3rd. De Vroome has won 10 of his last 11 including a 6-3, 6-2 win over Duke’s Chris Mengel. Zsiga won the first meeting 6-4, 6-4. Prediction: Zsiga (BU) in 3
#6 singles – Rios has won 10 of his last 11 including a 6-1, 6-4 win over USF’s Vadym Kalyuzhnyy while Crystal has won 4 in a row and 8 of 9 but he just missed out on another win when his match against Duke’s TJ Pura was halted with Crystal up 7-5, 5-0. Rios won the first meeting 6-2, 6-3. Prediction: Rios (BU) in 2
Baylor may have looked a tad unfocused in its match with South Florida but they’ll be dialed in for this one against the defending national champs. I like Baylor in doubles and then think they’ll sweep the bottom 3 with Galeano, Zsiga, and Rios picking up wins. I look for USC to sweep the top 3 with Hanfmann, Quiroz, and Johnson winning. BU in a squeaker – Prediction: Baylor 4-3
Stanford was going for 5th straight title in 1999 but defeated by Baylor in round of 16.<br />