Tuesday Preview – #9 UCLA vs. #1 Virginia

There’s going to be a ton of good tennis this weekend in Charlottesville with Virginia hosting the National Team Indoors but I think the best matchup of the week might be tonight with Virginia hosting #9 UCLA. I have these teams as #1 and #2 in my rankings and I expect that this will be a very, very good match with plenty of courts going three sets.

This will be Virginia’s first real test of the season while UCLA has been tested a few times but this will be the first time that the Bruins have played indoors. The doubles point will be more crucial for UCLA because it’s going to be hard enough to win three singles matches over Virginia let alone four.

Here is an article from the Daily Bruin talking about the match from a Bruin standpoint and here is one from the Daily Progress coming from the Virginia standpoint. Virginia will also be down one usual starter with last season’s #5 Alexander Ritschard recovering from a shoulder injury.

Let’s dive into the numbers and see what they say.

#9 UCLA (5-0) at #1 Virginia (4-0) – 6pm est – Live Scoring/Video

Doubles Records: UCLA 5-0, Virginia 4-0

Projected Doubles Lineup:
1. Mackenzie McDonald/Martin Redlicki (UCLA) vs. #15 Ryan Shane/Luca Corinteli (UVA)
2. Joseph Di Giulio/Karue Sell (UCLA) vs. #5 Mac Styslinger/Thai-Son Kwiatkowski (UVA)
3. Gage Brymer/Austin Rapp (UCLA) vs. Collin Altamirano/JC Aragone (UVA)

Dual-Match Doubles Records:
1. McDonald/Redlicki (2-0) vs. Shane/Corinteli (3-1)
2. Di Giulio/Sell (2-1) vs. Styslinger/Kwiatkowski (2-0)
3. Brymer/Rapp (3-0) vs. Altamirano/Aragone (2-0)

Picking the winner of the doubles point is tough with the shortened format but it seems to me that UCLA is a little more battle tested and I think they’ll catch Virginia a little off guard and take the doubles point with wins at #1 and #3.

Projected Singles Lineup w UTR in ( ):
1. Mackenzie McDonald (UCLA 14.98) vs. #11 Ryan Shane (UVA 14.68)
2. #48 Martin Redlicki (UCLA 13.84) vs. #2 Thai-Son Kwiatkowski (UVA 14.68)
3. Gage Brymer (UCLA 14.12) vs. Collin Altamirano (UVA 14.25)
4. Karue Sell (UCLA 14.32) vs. Mac Styslinger (UVA 13.91)
5. #98 Logan Staggs (UCLA 13.57) vs. #74 JC Aragone (UVA 13.86)
6. Joey Di Giulio (UCLA 13.56) vs. #90 Henrik Wiersholm (UVA 14.36)
O: Austin Rapp (UCLA 13.43)/Luca Corinteli (UVA 13.52)

Dual-Match Singles Records
1. McDonald (2-0) vs. Shane (1-1)
2. Redlicki (3-0) vs. Kwiatkowski (4-0)
3. Brymer (4-1) vs. Altamirano (4-0)
4. Sell (5-0) vs. Styslinger (2-0)
5. Staggs (3-0) vs. Aragone (4-0)
6. Di Giulio (4-0) vs. Wiersholm (2-0)

1. Shane beat McDonald 6-4, 7-5 back in September in the second round of the Costa Mesa Futures, which was an event Shane won, while McDonald won the only college H2H meeting but that was back in 2014 when each was playing at #3. Shane has started out a little slow this season while McDonald has returned from his wrist injury just fine. McDonald may be unranked (due to not playing in the fall) but everyone knows he’s a top 5 player. Shane has to keep the double-faults to a minimum because you can’t give a player like Mackie too many free points.  Prediction: McDonald (UCLA) in 3

2. Kwiatkowski had a tremendous fall winning the All-Americans and he’s off to a good start in dual-match play while Redlicki is coming off his best match of the young season after beating #34 Jordan Angus (USD) 6-1, 6-3. Kwiatkowski is much more comfortable indoors with the Charlotte native 6-1 this season playing indoors while Redlicki is 0-2. Kwiatkowski won the only H2H matchup 6-2, 7-6 in qualies of the 2014 All-Americans. Prediction: Kwiatkowski (UVA) in 2

3. This will be a battle of No Cal versus So Cal as Sacramento’s Altamirano takes on Irvine’s Brymer. The last time these two faced off Altamirano won 6-0, 6-1 in the semifinals of the 2013 USTA National Championships in Kalamazoo. Altamirano didn’t play in the fall but he won his toughest match a few weeks ago when he beat Kentucky’s Nils Ellefsen 7-5, 6-4. Brymer didn’t play much in the fall either but he made it to the finals of the Sherwood Cup before falling to Baylor’s Julian Lenz and he’s coming off a three set win over San Diego’s Filip Vittek. Prediction: Altamirano (UVA) in 3

4. Both Sell and Styslinger have been around the block a few times but this will be the first-ever meeting between these two seniors. Sell hasn’t dropped a set in dual-match play and is coming off a 6-1, 6-2 shellacking of San Diego’s Romain Kalaydjian while Styslinger has cruised to easy wins in his matches against Kentucky and Elon. Sell was just 1-5 indoors last season and this will be his first match indoors this season so it’ll be interesting to see if he plays as well in the controlled environment. If this match was outdoors I’d probably take Sell in two but with it being indoors I think it’s closer to a toss-up. Prediction: Sell (UCLA) in 3

5. Just like the matchup at #3 this will be No Cal versus So Cal as Tracy’s Logan’s Staggs takes on Yorba Linda’s JC Aragone. Playing indoors shouldn’t phase Staggs as much as his teammates because he did spend last season at Northwestern where he played plenty of tennis indoors. Staggs won his last two matches in three-sets while Aragone has cruised through each of his four although none of his opponents were close to the level of Staggs. This one has the makings of a tough three-setter that will probably come down to some deciding points. Prediction: Aragone (UVA) in 3

6. Di Giulio has been on a tear lately winning his last four in straights sets against quality competition while Wiersholm rolled in his two matches against Furman and Kentucky. If this match was outdoors I’d give Di Giulio more of a chance but I think Wiersholm will get it done indoors. Prediction: Wiersholm (UVA) in 2

I’m going to take Virginia in a tight one but I think #3, #4, and #5 are all swing matches that could turn the match one way or another. If they were playing this match outdoors in LA I’d look for UCLA to pull the upset but with it being indoors I’ve got to go with Virginia. Prediction: Virginia 4-3