TCU stays at No. 2 after beating SMU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State while Ohio State moves up two spots to No. 3 after rolling over Indiana and Purdue. The Buckeyes rise was largely tied to Oklahoma making a big jump last week while UCLA, which stays at No. 4, had a few of its best wins drop which is why it wasn’t able to hold off Ohio State.
Georgia moves up one spot to No. 6 after a big win over No. 14 Florida while Wake Forest drops one spot to No. 7 despite its point total coming up week over week. Oklahoma and USC swapped spots at No. 8 and No. 9 due to Oklahoma picking up a road win at No. 17 Texas while USC beat No. 72 Utah and unranked Arizona. Texas Tech re-enters the top 10 at No. 10 after picking up a home win over No. 18 Tulsa. Texas A&M falls one spot to No. 11 after losing at Kentucky on Friday.
Stanford will be the big mover inside the top 50 after picking up top 40 wins over Oregon and Washington last week. I have the Cardinal projected to jump from No. 42 to No. 27.
Notre Dame, which pulled off the shocker of No. 1 North Carolina, is projected to move up 12 spots from No. 55 to No. 43. As a reference point, in year’s past the at-large cutoff to qualify for the NCAAs has been right around 43.
This set of rankings used each team’s nine best wins as will all the subsequent rankings up until the selection of the NCAA field on May 3. Each of the teams in the projected top 20 had all nine countable wins over ranked opponents. Schools that have an * beside the school name have less than nine ranked wins so I had to do some guesswork on where the unranked wins fall in the rankings.
Cal and North Carolina remain at No. 1 and No. 2 while Georgia moves up one spot to No. 3, Florida moves up one spot to No. 4, and Ohio State falls two spots to No. 5. The reason Georgia and Florida moved past Ohio State is because of the strength of their SEC opponents while the Big Ten is pretty weak outside of Michigan. Ohio State is rolling over everyone but unfortunately the teams are ranked so low that they’re not helping them out.
Vanderbilt dropped one spot to No. 6 but they are only .14 behind Ohio State, Miami and Duke stay at No. 7 and No. 8 while Michigan comes up two spots to No. 9 after winning at Duke. South Carolina stays at No. 10 despite losing to Auburn. Pepperdine drops two spots to No. 11 due it’s ninth win being ranked outside the top 75 – in fact Pepperdine is the only team in the top 20 that doesn’t have all nine countable wins over ranked opponents.
Texas should be the big movers inside the top 50 after defeating both Texas Tech and TCU – I have the Longhorns projected to come up 10 spots to No. 25.
| Rank | School | Points | Previous |
| 1 | Virginia | 72.25 | 3 |
| 2 | TCU | 70.46 | 2 |
| 3 | Ohio State | 66.57 | 5 |
| 4 | UCLA | 66.33 | 4 |
| 5 | North Carolina | 65.93 | 1 |
| 6 | Georgia | 59.97 | 7 |
| 7 | Wake Forest | 59.68 | 6 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 53.73 | 9 |
| 9 | USC | 53.10 | 8 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 49.27 | 11 |
| 11 | Texas A&M | 47.45 | 10 |
| 12 | Arkansas | 47.41 | 16 |
| 13 | Florida | 47.25 | 14 |
| 14 | Oklahoma State | 47.00 | 12 |
| 15 | Northwestern | 46.09 | 13 |
| 16 | California | 42.71 | 19 |
| 17 | Illinois | 40.64 | 15 |
| 18 | Texas | 40.52 | 17 |
| 19 | South Florida | 39.95 | 22 |
| 20 | Kentucky | 39.46 | 20 |
| 21 | Michigan | 38.24 | 21 |
| 22 | Florida State* | 37.37 | 23 |
| 23 | Mississippi State* | 33.45 | 24 |
| 24 | Tulsa | 32.59 | 18 |
| 25 | Columbia | 29.13 | 26 |
| 26 | Rice* | 27.50 | 28 |
| 27 | Stanford* | 27.13 | 42 |
| 28 | SMU* | 26.83 | 25 |
| 29 | Tulane* | 26.77 | 27 |
| 30 | Georgia Tech* | 24.89 | 31 |
| 31 | San Diego | 24.80 | 29 |
| 32 | Ole Miss* | 23.99 | 35 |
| 33 | LSU* | 23.67 | 39 |
| 34 | Washington* | 22.37 | 30 |
| 35 | Alabama* | 22.18 | 32 |
| 36 | Dartmouth* | 21.99 | 38 |
| 37 | Baylor* | 21.60 | 45 |
| 38 | Memphis* | 21.34 | 34 |
| 39 | Penn State* | 20.92 | 33 |
| 40 | Virginia Tech* | 20.11 | 40 |
| 41 | Oregon* | 19.74 | 36 |
| 42 | NC State* | 18.91 | 41 |
| 43 | Notre Dame* | 18.33 | 55 |
| 44 | Old Dominion* | 16.90 | 48 |
| 45 | Vanderbilt* | 16.78 | 43 |
| 46 | Princeton* | 16.47 | 37 |
| 47 | Harvard* | 15.84 | 50 |
| 48 | Wisconsin* | 15.75 | 44 |
| 49 | Drake* | 15.23 | 46 |
| 50 | UC Santa Barbara* | 14.95 | 47 |
* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75
Rankings Chart That Excludes All Losses
| Rank | School | 9 Best Wins |
| 1 | North Carolina | 698.90 |
| 2 | Virginia | 686.40 |
| 3 | TCU | 669.40 |
| 4 | Wake Forest | 631.60 |
| 5 | Ohio State | 619.10 |
| 6 | UCLA | 610.20 |
| 7 | Georgia | 569.70 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 558.80 |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 531.40 |
| 10 | USC | 531.00 |
| Rank | School | Points | Previous |
| 1 | Cal | 76.37 | 1 |
| 2 | North Carolina | 68.84 | 2 |
| 3 | Georgia | 68.51 | 4 |
| 4 | Florida | 65.32 | 6 |
| 5 | Ohio State | 64.74 | 3 |
| 6 | Vanderbilt | 64.60 | 5 |
| 7 | Miami |
25 Comments |
I think you'll see those 3 and more in the coming months.
I like the UTR top 10 by country graphics. Is US College tennis going to do more like Germany and Brazil and India
UNC is the perfect example of enough talent to win when highly motivated and playing to win. However, not enough talent to win when they play not to lose or have an off day. Virginia, TCu, UCLA and Wake don't seem to have the same problem.
I think Washington would still get in though they'd probably need to beat Utah or Arizona in the first round of the Pac-12 tourney.
Do you think if Washington loses to Oregon this weekend, they could be knocked out of the NCAAs?
In the past they've always used rankings to determine the at-large selections – some of the seeding has been done based on H2H.
what does the selection committee base the tournament on?
Right around 60
Where does New Mexico move up to after beating #18 Tulsa?
I think they'd still be in the mix even if they lose – they have that great win over Florida that keeps getting better since Florida continues to climb. I think whoever wins the SEC will probably finish #2 in the country so if that ends up being Florida that'd be a huge boost for Stanford.<br /><br />If I had to guess right now I'd say Stanford ends up in top 16 even with a loss to Cal.
Men are in better shape because they've got a chance to pick up points if they can beat Washington this weekend and then Utah/Arizona in the Pac 12 Tourney. <br /><br />Women obviously have to beat both Long Beach State and Loyola Marymount this weekend to stay in the discussion. If they win both of those that might be enough to keep them closer to 40 which would probably get them in.<br /><br />
On the women's side, if Cal beats Stanford this weekend is Stanford eliminated from hosting a regional? That is their last match of the season and the conference tournament does not include a team competition.
Stanford is a very dangerous team with the right draw. Lots of close matches this year. I wouldn't want to see them or a team like FSU show up in my region. Field is very deep and balanced this year.
What are the chances for oregon mens and womens tennis to make the ncaa?
If they win out against Brown, Yale, and Harvard I think they are gold. Lose to anyone of those three then it gets dicey – might be able to lose to Harvard and make it but it'd be close.
Oklahoma State has enough solid wins that I think they might be able to lose out and still stay in the top 16. If they beat Baylor this Sunday I think that would all but guarantee them a spot in the top 16 which should let them host a regional.<br /><br />If that happens it'd be really interesting to see if Tulsa would end up in Stillwater as the #2 seed with a chance to win that regional and then they'd get to play at home in the Round of 16. <br /><br />I think South Florida has a chance to make a move because they play at Memphis this week then if they win the AAC tourney the following week that would mean they would have defeated two of these four (Tulsa,SMU,Memphis,Tulane) and I think that points boost would put them right on the door of hosting. <br /><br />I think Illinois will be right there too – they obviously need to beat Michigan this week and beating Northwestern in the Big Ten tourney would probably put them over the top. <br />
Do you think Dartmouth stands a chance to finally make it? They have been 1-2 spots away for last several years but only have 3 more matches remaining on their schedule
I think Baylor's win over Texas is going to be enough to get them in regardless of whether they lose out. Loses to higher ranked teams really don't hurt that much. <br /><br />When looking at the teams behind them I don't see many that are going to have a chance to get a good enough win to move up much. Maybe Oregon if the beat Washington this week. Memphis has South Florida coming in and then they host the conference tournament so maybe they could pick someone off. <br /><br />I think Baylor and Oklahoma State is a pick'em this Sunday
whatever happened to Fresno State tennis?
Where would Okie State land?… assuming they lose out, given the Ismailov departure and injury issues.
If Baylor men lose to Oklahoma, TCU an Oklahoma State do they miss the tournament?
If you had to guess, who will be left out of the top 16 come seeding time. I think Illinois will replace Oklahoma State and that is pretty much it. Texas won't move up as they have trouble winning on the road. USF, Kentucky and Michigan are pretty much stuck where they are at.
42-44 is approx – I'd agree loser of NCST/ND is probably out unless they pull a big upset in ACC tourney
Maybe 2 or 3 spots – also depends on what everyone else does. Chances of hosting are pretty slim – they would have to run the table and play both USC and UCLA in the conference tournament – if they did all that they'd have a really good chance
Where is the approx. cutoff for NCAA's? Loser of ND and NC St this weekend (probably NC St) should be out I would think?