The NCAA Quarterfinals get started at noon eastern this Thursday at the USTA National Campus in Lake Nona. In case you missed the announcement last week the USTA and the Tennis Channel have entered into a three-year partnership beginning with this week where the Tennis Channel will show more than 50 hours of live matches during the NCAA Championships. During the team portion of the NCAAs the Tennis Channel will show the two late matches each day and then on Sunday they’ll show both the men’s and women’s finals. The USTA National Campus website has plenty of information on the NCAAs and also lists all the matches that the Tennis Channel will show all the way through the individual tournament.
The eight quarterfinalists are all ranked in the most recent ITA Top 10 and I think all eight have a reasonable chance to win it all. Virginia, Wake Forest, and Baylor are the only programs of the eight remaining that have won an NCAA Championship and with Virginia and Wake set to meet on Thursday that means that at most they’ll be two former champs left by the weekend.
All eight teams that won last week had the higher UTR Power 6 so it that holds up again on Thursday the four semifinalists would be North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida, and Texas. The difference between Ohio State and North Carolina as of Sunday evening was a microscopic 0.08 so there’s a chance that by match time those numbers may have shifted back towards Ohio State – regardless it should be a heck of a match.
Slam.Tennis shows that Ohio State has the largest expected winning percentage at 88% while Florida is the smallest favorite at just 57%.
The weather forecast for Thursday shows temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s and by the weekend they’ll be up around 90 so it’s going to be a battle of attrition.
#1 Ohio State vs. #9 North Carolina (Thursday 5 pm ET)
- def. #86 Cleveland State 4-0
- def. #35 Vanderbilt 4-0
- def. #16 Columbia 4-1
- def. #121 Navy 4-0
- def. #18 Georgia 4-0
- def. #8 USC 4-1
- Ohio State has only dropped the doubles point twice this year going 1-1 in those two matches – lost to Texas 4-1; def. Michigan 4-2
- John McNally and Hunter Tubert are a perfect 21-0 in dual-match doubles play
- JJ Wolf has only dropped six sets in dual-match play while going 26-1 at the top spot
- John McNally has won 14 of his last 15 completed matches
- Kyle Seelig has won his last 12 completed matches (last loss on March 14 vs. Texas’s Yuya Ito)
- Martin Joyce has won 7 straight matches (6 in straight sets)
- Alex Kobelt has won 9 of his last 10 completed matches (loss was against Columbia in R16) and is 20-2 on the season
- Hunter Tubert has won his last 4 completed matches and 7 of his last 9
- Will Blumberg has won 5 of his last 7 completed matches (last three matches have gone unfinished
- Ben Sigouin has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches (was leading in his last three unfinished matches)
- Josh Peck has won 8 of his last 10 completed matches
- Brian Cernoch has won 7 of his last 8 completed matches
- Bo Boyden has won 8 straight matches
- Simon Soendergaard has won 3 of his last 4 completed matches (lost his last match)
- Mac Kiger has lost 4 of his last 6 completed matches
Prediction & Thoughts: This should be an excellent match with Ohio State banking on doubles, Wolf, Seelig, and probably Tubert while UNC is probably thinking that doubles, Sigouin, Cernoch, and Boyden are its ticket but also hoping that Blumberg can replicate his performance against Wolf during the opening round of the 2017 NCAA Singles Tournament. There seem to be more paths to victory for Ohio State but I’m going to take North Carolina in an upset – North Carolina 4-3
#5 Virginia at #4 Wake Forest (Thursday 12 pm ET)
- def. #132 Morgan State 5-0
- def. #36 Kentucky 4-1
- def. #21 Oklahoma 4-1
- def. #107 St. John’s 4-0
- def. #17 South Carolina 4-1
- def. #12 Stanford 4-2
- Borna Gojo has won his last 10 completed matches with his last loss Feb 17 to Ohio State’s JJ Wolf (1-1 vs. Soderlund)
- Petros Chrysochos has won his last 10 completed matches
- Bar Botzer has won his last 10 completed matches (2-0 record vs. Wiersholm)
- Rrezart Cungu has won 3 straight and 5 of his last 6 completed matches (2-0 vs. Ross)
- Melios Efstathiou has won 13 of his last 14 completed matches (1-0 vs. Goetz)
- Sid Banthia has won 3 straight and 7 of his last 9 matches (0-1 vs. Lizen)
- Carl Soderlund has won 10 of his last 11 completed matches
- Brandon Nakashima has won 9 of his last 10 completed matches
- Henrik Wiersholm has won 6 of his last 8 completed matches while his last 3 matches have gone unfinished (0-2 vs. Botzer this year)
- Gianni Ross has won 6 of his last 8 completed matches but split his last 4 (0-2 vs. Cungu)
- Ryan Goetz has lost 5 of his last 7 matches since returning from a two-month absence due to injury (0-1 vs. Efstathiou)
- Aswin Lizen has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches (1-0 vs. Banthia)
#4 Wake Forest 4, #5 Virginia 2
Apr 21, 2019 at Cary, NC — Cary Tennis Park
Singles Competition
1. #14 Borna Gojo (WF) def. #5 Carl Soderlund (VA) 6-4, 6-2
2. #82 Brandon Nakashima (VA) vs. #4 Petros Chrysochos (WF) 7-6 (3), 5-6, unfinished
3. #34 Bar Botzer (WF) def. Henrik Wiersholm (VA) 7-5, 7-6 (8-6)
4. Rrezart Cungu (WF) def. Gianni Ross (VA) 6-2, 6-2
5. #95 Melios Efstathiou (WF) def. Ryan Goetz (VA) 6-3, 6-1
6. Aswin Lizen (VA) def. Siddhant Banthia (WF) 6-4, 6-0
Doubles Competition
1. #37 Brandon Nakashima and Henrik Wiersholm (VA) def. #64 Alan Gadjiev and Borna Gojo (WF) 7-6 (7-5)
2. #41 Bar Botzer and Petros Chrysochos (WF) def. Matthew Lord and Carl Soderlund (VA) 6-3
3. Gianni Ross and William Woodall (VA) def. Siddhant Banthia and Melios Efstathiou (WF) 7-6 (7-3)
Match Notes
Virginia 21-4
Wake Forest 29-3
Order of finish: Singles — 6 5 1 4 3 ; Doubles — 2 3 1
#2 Wake Forest 6, #3 Virginia 1
March 17, 2019 at Winston-Salem, NC
Singles Competition
1. #89 Borna Gojo (WF) def. #50 Brandon Nakashima (VA) 6-4, 7-6(4)
2. #15 Carl Soderlund (VA) def. #2 Petros Chrysochos (WF) 6-4, 7-5
3. #21 Bar Botzer (WF) def. Henrik Wiersholm (VA) 7-6(6), 6-4
4. Rrezart Cungu (WF) def. #96 Gianni Ross (VA) 6-1, 2-6, 6-4
5. #60 Melios Efstathiou (WF) def. Aswin Lizen (VA) 7-6(4), 6-3
6. Siddhant Banthia (WF) def. Matthew Lord (VA) 7-6(6), 6-3
Doubles Competition
1. Alan Gadjiev/Borna Gojo (WF) def. Carl Soderlund/Matthew Lord (VA) 6-4
2. #71 Brandon Nakashima/Henrik Wiersholm (VA) def. #35 Bar Botzer/Petros Chrysochos (WF) 6-3
3. Siddhant Banthia/Julian Zlobsinsky (WF) def. Gianni Ross/Aswin Lizen (VA) 7-5
Match Notes
Virginia 12-3
Wake Forest 17-3
Order of finish: Singles (6,1,2,5,4,3); Doubles (2,1,3 )
#13 Virginia 5, #1 Wake Forest 2
Feb 8, 2019 at Charlottesville, Va (Boar’s Head Sports Club)
Singles Competition
1. Carl Soderlund (UVA) def. Borna Gojo (WF) 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-1
2. #1 Petros Chrysochos (WF) def. Henrik Wiersholm (UVA) 7-6(4), 6-3
3. Brandon Nakashima (UVA) def. #25 Bar Botzer (WF) 6-4, 6-3
4. #38 Gianni Ross (UVA) def. #39 Melios Efstathiou (WF) 7-6(4), 6-2
5. #54 Ryan Goetz (UVA) def. #80 Rrezart Cungu (WF) 6-0, 6-2
6. Aswin Lizen (UVA) def. Julian Zlobinski (WF) 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
Doubles Competition
1. Borna Gojo/Alan Gadjiev (WF) def. Carl Soderlund/William Woodall (UVA) 6-4
2. Petros Chrysochos/Bar Botzer (WF) vs. Henrik Wiersholm/Brandon Nakashima (UVA) 4-4, unf.
3. Siddhant Banthia/Melios Efstathiou (WF) def. Ryan Goetz/Gianni Ross (UVA) 6-4
Match Notes
Virginia 6-1
Wake Forest 6-1
Order of finish; Singles (5,3,4,2,6,1); Doubles (1,3)
#6 Baylor at #3 Florida (Thursday 7 pm ET)
- def. #95 Florida Gulf Coast 4-0
- def. #28 Florida State 4-0
- def. #14 Tennessee 4-2
- def. #42 Utah 4-0
- def. #20 Michigan 4-1
- def. #11 UCLA 4-1
- Oliver Crawford has won 8 of his last 9 completed matches
- Sam Riffice has won 13 of his last 16 matches though those 3 losses came in his last 4 matches
- Johannes Ingildsen has won 9 of his last 11 completed matches (though split his last 4)
- Alfredo Perez has won his last 9 completed matches
- Andy Andrade has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches
- Duarte Vale has won his last 13 completed matches
- Lukas Greif had won 5 straight matches before losing to Tennessee’s Andrew Rogers
- McClain Kessler has won his last 7 matches
- Johannes Schretter has won 7 of his last 10 completed matches
- Matias Soto has won his last 4 completed matches (only lost once this year at No. 2 singles)
- Adrian Boitan has won 8 of his last 9 matches (7 in straight sets)
- Will Little has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches
- Sven Lah has won 6 straight and 14 of his last 16 completed matches
- Jimmy Bendeck has won 8 of his last 9 completed matches
#10 TCU at #2 Texas (Thursday 2 pm ET)
- def. #148 Tennessee Tech 4-0
- def. #37 South Florida 4-1
- #24 California 4-0
- def. #41 Harvard 4-1
- def. #27 Arizona State 4-1
- def. #7 Mississippi State 4-2
- Christian Sigsgaard has won 7 of his last 8 completed matches
- Yuya Ito has won his last 3 matches and 15 of his last 17
- Leo Telles has lost his last 3 completed matches
- Harrison Scott has won his last 6 completed matches and 8 of his last 9
- Colin Markes has won 7 of his last 8 matches
- Rodrigo Banzer has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches
- Alex Rybakov has won 13 of his last 16 completed matches (though lost 2 of last 3)
- Alastair Gray has won his last 3 completed matches
- Reese Stalder has lost 7 of his last 9 completed matches
- Bertus Kruger has won 3 of his last 4 completed matches after losing the previous 5
- Luc Fomba has won 5 of his last 6 completed matches
- Sander Jong has won his last 5 completed matches
Regular Season Meeting
#4 Texas 6, #10 TCU 1
Apr 06, 2019 at Fort Worth, Texas (Bayard H. Friedman Tennis Center)
Singles competition
1. #7 Christian Sigsgaard (UT) def. #4 Alex Rybakov (TCU) 4-6, 6-3, 6-2
2. #5 Yuya Ito (UT) def. #20 Alastair Gray (TCU) 6-4, 6-2
3. #90 Leonardo Telles (UT) def. Reese Stalder (TCU) 6-3, 7-5
4. #61 Harrison Scott (UT) def. Bertus Kruger (TCU) 6-2, 5-7, 6-2
5. Colin Markes (UT) def. Luc Fomba (TCU) 6-2, 2-6, 6-4
6. Rodrigo Banzer (UT) def. Sander Jong (TCU) 7-6 (7-4), 4-6, 1-0 (10-7)
Doubles competition
1. #45 Alastair Gray/Alex Rybakov (TCU) def. #3 Harrison Scott/Christian Sigsgaard (UT) 6-4
2. #13 Bertus Kruger/Reese Stalder (TCU) def. Colin Markes/Leonardo Telles (UT) 6-3
3. Luc Fomba/Sander Jong (TCU) vs. Chih Chi Huang/Yuya Ito (UT) 3-5, unfinished
Match Notes:
Texas 20-2, 3-0 Big 12; National ranking #4
TCU 16-5, 1-2 Big 12; National ranking #10
Order of finish: Doubles (1,2); Singles (2,3,5,1,4,6)
T-2:45
It would be a great stat to see a list of college players in order of biggest increase in UTR since Sept.
I got OSU men and SCarolina women winning it all.
I got Baylor men over FL. If Stanford and SC can take down FL, Baylor can. Doubles will be the key, like usual.
@Wired Ironically a lot of college players' UTRs have gone down since Sept '18 or even spring 2018. One example George Harwell of Vandy played 6 last year and reached 13.47 at the end of the season. This year he played 2 and has a UTR of 12.97. I assume the players with the biggest UTR increase will be those who had cross play with pros in late fall or winter. Those who only played Futures matches in summer or early fall will have those matches dropped if their match total is over 30. Now that many college players cant get in Futures, they cant get the summer bump in UTR. Too bad UTR doesnt use a year's worth of matches to calculate ratings or at least keep the top 6 best results and then the latest 24. Opportunity to play higher ranked opponents or the lack thereof can count for .5-.75 of UTR rating. It also hurts that lower players who are playing well vs higher ranked college opponents often dont get to finish college dual matches so no boost to UTR; the lines with the easy 2 set wins get the higher ranked team the 4 points before the 3 setters finish. Dont know how coaches can compare freshmen, transfers, etc with the algorithm often showing big swings in ratings. I know of former 5 star players who are 1.5 UTR below their best ranking 3 years ago as juniors even though they are winning for their teams and high in the lineups because they play D3 but there are also a lot of D1 players who have dropped .5-.75 winning the same % of matches as they did a year ago.